Options for National Parks and Reserves for Adapting to Climate Change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.     

Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas

Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.     

Monitoring individual exposure. Measurements of volatile organic compounds in breathing-zone air, drinking water, and exhaled breath

Methods for determining individual exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOC) during normal daily activities were field tested on university student volunteers in Texas and North Carolina. The equipment tested included a personal monitor employing Tenax GC® to collect organic vapors for later analysis by GC-MS, and a specially designed spirometer for collecting samples of expired human breath on duplicate Tenax cartridges. The personal monitor and spirometer proved feasible for collecting abundant quantitative data on most of the 15 target organics. Air exposures to many VOC varied widely, sometimes over three orders of magnitude, among students on the same campus who had been monitored over the same time period and day. A log-linear relationship between breathing-zone air exposures and concentrations in exhaled breath was suggested for three chemicals: tetrachloroethylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and vinylidene chloride. Air was the main route of exposure for all target compounds except the two trihalomethanes (chloroform and bromodichloromethane), which were transmitted mainly through water. Estimated total daily intake through air and water of the target organics ranged from 0.3 to 12.6 mg, with 1,1,1-trichloroethane at the highest concentrations in both geographic areas.     

Flood control failure: San Lorenzo River,California

The San Lorenzo River on the central California coast was the site of a major US Army Corps of Engineers flood control project in 1959. By excavating the channel below its natural grade and constructing levees, the capacity of the river was increased in order to contain approximately the 100 year flood. Production and transport of large volumes of sediment from the river's urbanizing watershed has filled the flood control project with sand and silt. The natural gradient has been re-established, and flood protection has been reduced to containment of perhaps the 30 year flood. In order for the City of Santa Cruz, which is situated on the flood plain, to be protected from future flooding,it must either initiate an expensive annual dredging program, or replan and rebuild the inadequately designed flood control channel. It has become clear, here and elsewhere, that the problem of flooding cannot simply be resolved by engineering. Large flood control projects provide a false sense of security and commonly produce unexpected channel changes.     

Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments

Environmental concerns such as loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion have heightened awareness of the need to assess cumulative impacts in environmental documents. More than 20 years of experience with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have provided analysts in the United States with opportunities for developing successful techniques to assess site-specific impacts of proposed actions. Methods for analyzing a proposed action's incremental contribution to cumulative impacts are generally less advanced than those for project-specific impacts.The President's Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines cumulative impact to include the impacts of past, present and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of who undertakes the action. Court decisions have helped clarify the distinction between reasonably foreseeable future actions and other possible future actions. This paper seeks to clarify how past and present impacts should be included in cumulative impact analyses.The definition of cumulative impacts implies that cumulative impact analyses should include the effects of all past and present actions on a particular resource. Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments increases the likelihood of identifying significant impacts. NEPA requires agencies to give more consideration to alternatives and mitigation and to provide more opportunities for public involvement for actions that would have significant impacts than for actions that would not cause or contribute to significant impacts. For an action that would contribute to significant cumulative impacts, the additional cost and effort involved in increased consideration of alternatives and mitigation and in additional public involvement may be avoided if the action can be modified so that its contributions to significant cumulative impacts are eliminated.Managed by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy.     

Continuous monitoring of ultrafine,fine, and coarse particles in a residence for 18 months in 1999-2000

Continuous monitors were employed for 18 months in an occupied townhouse to measure ultrafine, fine, and coarse particles; air change rates; wind speed and direction; temperature; and relative humidity (RH). A main objective was to document short-term and long-term variation in indoor air concentrations of size-resolved particles (0.01-20 microm) caused by (1) diumal and seasonal variation of outdoor air concentrations and meteorological variables, (2) indoor sources such as cooking and using candles, and (3) activities affecting air change rates such as opening windows and using fans. A second objective was to test and compare available instruments for their suitability in providing real-time estimates of particle levels and ancillary variables. Despite different measuring principles, the instruments employed in this study agreed reasonably well for particles less than 10 microm in diameter. The three instruments measuring fine and coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter between 0.3 and 20 microm) agreed to within 30% in their overall estimates of total volume. Two of these instruments employed optical scattering, and the third used an aerodynamic acceleration principle. However, several lines of evidence indicated that the instrument employing aerodynamic acceleration overestimated concentrations for particle diameters greater than 10 microm. A fourth instrument measuring ultrafine and accumulation-mode particles (0.01-1 microm) was operated with two different inlets providing somewhat different particle size ranges. The two inlets agreed in the ultrafine region (< 0.1 microm) but diverged increasingly for larger particles (up to 0.445 microm). Indoor sources affecting ultrafine particle concentrations were observed 22% of the time, and sources affecting fine and coarse particle concentrations were observed 12 and 15% of the time, respectively. When an indoor source was operating, particle concentrations for different sizes ranged from 2 to 20 times the average concentrations when no indoor source was apparent. Indoor sources, such as cooking with natural gas, and simple physical activities, such as walking, accounted for a majority (50-90%) of the ultrafine and coarse particle concentrations, whereas outdoor sources were more important for accumulation-mode particles between 0.1 and 1 microm in diameter. Averaged for the entire year and including no periods when indoor sources were apparent, the number distribution was bimodal, with a peak at approximately 10 nm (possibly smaller), a shallow minimum at approximately 14 nm, and a second broad peak at approximately 68 nm. The volume distribution was also bimodal, with a broad peak at approximately 200 nm, a minimum at approximately 1.2 microm, and then an upward slope again through the remaining size fractions. A database was created on a 5-min averaging time basis. It contains more than 90,000 measurements by two of the instruments and approximately 30,000 by the two optical scattering instruments. About 4500 hour-long average air change rates were also calculated throughout the year using a dedicated gas chromatograph with electron capture detection (GC/ECD). At high air change rates [> 0.8 air changes per hour (hr(-1))], particle concentrations were either elevated (when no source was present) or depressed (when an indoor source was operating) by factors of up to 2 compared with low air change rates.     

Analysis of potential impacts to resident fish from Columbia River System Operation alternatives

The US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration initiated the Columbia River System Operation Review (SOR) in 1990. The SOR will assist agencies in comparing the benefits and risks to Columbia River uses and natural resources from alternative strategies for using Columbia River water. Focusing on 14 federal dams within the basin, the agencies are attempting to improve on the efficient and coordinated use of the Columbia River system. An initial screening of all potential strategies of reservoir operation was necessary to reduce the number of possibilities to a limited set for detailed analysis. To that end, the Resident Fish Work Group of the SOR developed spreadsheet models capable of assessing the impacts of different management strategies on resident fish at six storage reservoirs. The models include biological, physical, and hydrological relationships important to resident fish specific to each reservoir. Alternatives that kept the reservoirs near full pool and held stable during the growing season resulted in positive benefits to resident fish at all locations modeled. Conversely, alternatives designed to improve anadromous fish survival with increased instream flow generally had a negative impact on the resident fish in the reservoirs modeled. The models developed for resident fish in the screening analysis phase of the SOR were useful in assessing the relative impact to resident fish from a large number of alternatives. The screening analysis demonstrated that future analytical efforts must consider trade-offs among river uses/resource groups, among reservoirs throughout the basin, and among resident fish species within a reservoir.Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.     

Cognitive categorization processes in performance evaluation: Confirmatory tests of two models

We tested a data-driven ‘traditional’ model and a schema-driven ‘categorization’ model of rater cognitive processes. Raters viewed one of two videotaped lectures on economics. Next, they completed dimensional and overall performance ratings, and scales designed to measure performance-based and non-performance-based aspects of raters' general impressions. We tested model predictions using a combination of confirmatory factor analysis and single-equation regression estimates of structural parameters. Neither model received unequivocal support, though results favored the categorization model. We conclude that (a) performance-based and non-performance-based aspects of a rater's general impression can be distinguished empirically, (b) raters' overall impressions of ratees may substantially reflect the integration of performance-based information, and (c) performance evaluation may be better viewed in the context of ‘evaluation-based’ rather than ‘memory-based’ judgments.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.