Using forest historical information to target landscape ecological restoration in Southwestern Patagonia

Ambio - Ecotonal zones between eastern semi-arid steppes and Nothofagus spp. forests in western Patagonia are the result of broad ecosystem changes, which have intensified in the last...     

Cars and fuels for tomorrow: a comparative assessment

Light duty vehicles, i.e. passenger cars and light trucks, account for approximately half of global transportation energy demand and, thus, a major share of carbon dioxide and other emissions from the transport sector. Energy consumption in the transport sector is expected to grow in the future, especially in developing countries. Cars with alternative powertrains to internal combustion engines (notably battery, hybrid and fuel-cell powertrains), in combination with potentially low carbon electricity or alternative fuels (notably hydrogen and methanol), can reduce energy demand by at least 50%, and carbon dioxide and regulated emissions much further. This article presents a comparative technical and economic assessment of promising future fuel/vehicle combinations. There are several promising technologies but no obvious winners. However, the electric drivetrain is a common denominator in the alternative powertrains and continued cost reductions are important for widespread deployment in future vehicles. Development paths from current fossil fuel based systems to future carbon-neutral supply systems appear to be flexible and a gradual phasing-in of new powertrains and carbon-neutral fluid fuels or electricity is technically possible. Technology development drivers and vehicle manufacturers are found mainly in industrialised countries, but developing countries represent a growing market and may have an increasingly important role in shaping the future.     

条件磷指数:一个用于风险评估和磷管理的教育工具

磷指数(H)是一个结合磷源因子和传输因子来对土地磷流失的脆弱性进行分类的风险评估工具.本文阐述了条件磷指数的结构和概念,用来作为教育和磷管理的有效工具,加以调节后可以用来对瑞典的实际环境条件进行评估.由于某一特定因子对磷流失的重要程度强烈依赖于他们同其他因子的相互影响作用,更为精确的过程描述和量化的条件规则是必不可缺的.考虑通过土壤剖面磷的流失,单独计算活性磷和惰性磷,用动态的方法来计算土壤侵蚀流失中磷的流失评价,是本文提出的教育和管理工具的一些全新的特征.通过比较计算的PI值和从一个瑞典水质监测项目中7个观测地点观测的磷年传输数据,对本文提出的方法进行测试.首次测试表明,这个方法能够成功地用于磷流失风险评估.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

The impacts of local farming system development trajectories on greenhouse gas emissions in the northern mountains of Vietnam

The northern mountain region of Vietnam (NMR) is dominated by swidden/fallow farming systems. The fallow land of these systems is populated by small trees and bushes. Since the 1960s the government of Vietnam has tried to limit or stop swiddening and replace it with permanent upland agricultural fields, paddy, fruit trees and animal husbandry. Discussion in the policy debate and literature focuses on the impacts these changes have on local people’s livelihoods. There have been no attempts to evaluate the impact of these changes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the realities of current farming system changes taking place at the hamlet level and other changes that could take place due to government land use policies and extension programs. The paper answers the following questions: How could farming system changes influence net GHGs? Which farming system changes in the NMR, the trajectories of changes that are currently observed or those that would be followed if farmers adhere strictly to government policies and programs, will have a greater affect on the GHG contributions from agriculture in the region? Could ‘clean development mechanism’ (CDM) projects make a difference in the profitability of the pathways mentioned? Results show: (1) if farming systems in the NMR continue along currently observed change trajectories there will be increases in GHG emissions; (2) if the NMR farming systems change according to government policies and programs there will be a net sequestration of carbon in regrowing vegetation during the initial 20 years; (3) over the longer term, in areas where systems change to fit government policies, increased GHG emissions from other changes in the farming systems (e.g. increased paddy and increased pig raising in sties) will overtake the amounts of carbon sequestered in vegetation; (4) CMD projects only make a difference if (a) maximum biomass potential of regrowing fallow can be reached; (b) a favourable baseline is chosen; (c) timing and length of the accounting period is correct; and (d) farmers do not take compensatory action in response to government policies. Given these conditions it does not appear that currently envisioned clean development mechanisms would be beneficial to farmers in the NMR.     

A practical approach to predict the duration of the growing season for European lakes

This work presents the first practically useful models to estimate the duration of the growing season (GS in days) for European lakes. GS is a fundamental parameter in limnology, where it is used, e.g., to calculate lake characteristic annual primary production (in g ww/m²·yr) from measurement data in g C/l·day. We have presented two simple empirical regression equations where GS is estimated from latitude. We have also introduced a more comprehensive model. It is derived from a previously presented well calibrated and validated model predicting lake epilimnetic temperatures from readily available data on latitude, altitude, continentality (distance from the Sea) and lake volume. Operationally, the duration of the growing season (GS in days) is defined from the predicted number of days when epilimentic water temperatures are higher than 9°C. The two modelling approaches are based on different presuppositions and they have been derived and tested from different data-sets. A model comparison has shown that the overall correspondence in predicted GS-values between the methods is very good. Evidently, the more comprehensive model can provide more relevant GS-predictions for many lakes since it also accounts for differences among lakes in altitude, continentality and volume.