Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

PM2.5 assessment in 21 European study centers of ECRHS II: Method and first winter results

The follow-up of a cohort of adults from 29 European centers of the former European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I (1989-1992) will examine the long-term effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on the incidence, course, and prognosis of respiratory diseases, in particular asthma and decline in lung function. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology and the European-wide quality control program for the collection of particles with 50% cut-off size of 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) in the ECRHS II and to present the PM2.5 results from the winter period 2000-2001. Because PM2.5 is not routinely monitored in Europe, we measured PM2.5 mass concentrations in 21 participating centers to estimate background exposure in these cities. A standardized protocol was developed using identical equipment in each center (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Well Impactor Ninety-Six [WINS] and PQ167 from BGI, Inc.). Filters were weighed in a single central laboratory. Sampling was conducted for 7 days per month for a year. Winter mean PM2.5 mass concentrations (November 2000-February 2001) varied substantially, with Iceland reporting the lowest value (5 microg/m3) and northern Italy the highest (69 microg/m3). A standardized procedure appropriate for PM2.5 exposure assessment in a multicenter study was developed. We expect ECRHS II to have sufficient variation in exposure to assess long-term effects of air pollution in this cohort. Any bias caused by variation in the characteristics of the chosen monitoring location (e.g., proximity to traffic sources) will be addressed in later analyses. Given the homogenous spatial distribution of PM2.5, however, concentrations measured near traffic are not expected to differ substantially from those measured at urban background sites.     

Recent advances in mercury speciation analysis with focus on spectrometric methods and enriched stable isotope applications

This paper discusses some recent advances in spectrometric methods and approaches for mercury speciation analysis of environmental samples with focus on isotope dilution techniques for determination of mercury species' concentrations in gaseous samples and reaction rates in soils and sediments. Such analytical data is important inter alia in fundamental research on mercury biogeochemistry and for risk assessments of mercury-contaminated soils and sediments and for designing effective remedial actions. The paper describes how the use of enriched stable isotope tracers in mercury speciation analysis can improve the traceability and accuracy of results, facilitate rational method developments, and be useful for studying biogeochemical processes, i.e. rate of reactions and fluxes, of mercury species. In particular the possibilities to study and correct for unwanted species transformation reactions during sample treatment and to study "natural" transformations of species in environmental samples, or micro- and mesocosm ecosystems, during incubations are highlighted. Important considerations to generate relevant data in isotope tracer experiments as well as reliability and quality assurance of mercury speciation analysis in general are also discussed.     

Possibilities for improving nitrogen use from organic materials in agricultural cropping systems

Nitrogen release from organic nutrient sources in soil is influenced by a range of factors such as soil temperature and moisture, and chemical composition of the organic material. Chemical composition can, to a certain degree, be controlled to increase the synchronization of nitrogen (N) release with plant N demand, whereas climatic factors cannot be controlled and so must be taken into account when planning management measures. In this paper, we discuss different ways to affect N release through manipulation of the chemical composition of fresh or pretreated plant materials and animal manures, timing of incorporation, and intentional distribution during application. We conclude by giving an overview of off-farm options that may need to be implemented to achieve improved use of N, especially in agricultural systems with surplus N.     

Blood serum concentrations of perfluorinated compounds in men from Greenlandic Inuit and European populations

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), are used in large quantities. They are persistent and found in measurable levels in human serum around the world. They have been associated with developmental, hepatic, and carcinogenic effects in animal studies. The aim of the present study was to describe levels of PFCs in serum among Inuits from Greenland and inhabitants from Warsaw, Poland and Kharkiv, Ukraine. Furthermore, the aim was to define social- and lifestyle related determinants of exposure for these compounds. Serum levels of seven PFCs were analyzed by liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). The concentrations of PFOS and PFOA were the highest of all PFCs in all three populations with a total amount of almost 90% of the PFCs. The mean levels of PFOS and PFOA were in the Greenlandic Inuits 52 and 4.8 ng mL(-1), in Poland 19 and 5.2 ng mL(-1), and in Ukraine 8.1 and 1.9 ng mL(-1), respectively. Thus, levels of PFCs in the serum of Inuits on Greenland were among the highest described in a general population whereas the levels in Poland were similar to other industrialized countries. The exposure in Ukraine was rather low. In the Greenlandic Inuit population, intake of seafood, tea, age and area of living were significant determinants of PFOS concentrations and explained about 22% of the variation. For the other populations no strong determinants were found.     

Comparison of two methods for the determination of total organic halogen (TOX) in receiving waters

Two methods for the determination of total organic halogen (TOX), orginating from bleaching of pulp, in receiving waters have been compared. One of the methods (AC/MC) is based on adsorption of the halogenated matter onto an activated carbon sorbent. The halogen is determined by a microcoulometric technique after combustion of the carbon. The other method (XAD/PT) uses an XAD resin as sorbent and the determination of the halogen is carried out by potentiometric titration after a schöniger combustion of the resin eluate.Both methods showed good performance for samples consisting of spent bleach liquors diluted with distilled, fresh and brackish water. The repeatability was very good with a relative standard deviation less than a few per cent. The detection limit of the AC/MC method is about 0.1 μmol/1 and for the XAD/PT method about ten times higher. The AC/MC method gave in most cases 10–20% higher TOX concentrations compared to the XAD/PT method.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.