Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

Virtues and humanitarian ethics

This paper analyses the contribution of virtue ethics, the study of good character traits, to the humanitarian context. It argues that a virtue ethics perspective paints a realistic picture of the use of ethical standards in morally complex circumstances. Virtuous relief workers can employ standards in their thinking, but they are also committed to professional excellence that goes beyond any formal code. The concept of virtue ethics places a stress on moral development, which can be facilitated by role models that impart modest and feasible ideals. However, virtue ethics cannot provide simple guidelines on how to resolve difficult situations. It is possible that two virtuous persons can disagree on what should be done in a particular instance. In addition, a virtue ethics perspective emphasises the need for both individuals and organisations to discuss the actual purpose of relief work in order to pinpoint the virtues of a good relief professional.     

Protective effect of different types of bicycle helmets

The effectiveness of bicycle helmets in preventing head injuries is well documented. There are different opinions about the effectiveness of helmets in preventing face injuries, and few studies have analyzed the effect of different types of helmets. This study was performed to examine the effect of different helmet types to head and face injuries. The use of helmets was analyzed in cyclists with head or face injuries and compared with two control groups. The main control group was cyclists that had injuries not including the head or neck, and another control group was cyclists that had been involved in an accident, regardless of whether they had sustained any injury. Cross-table and logistic regression analyses were applied to analyze the protective effect of helmets. A total of 991 injured patients served as a basis for this study. Most of the accidents, (82%) were single accidents with no other persons involved. Of patients with injuries to the head, excluding face, 11.4% had been using hard shell helmets, and 9.6% had been using foam helmets at the time of the accident. Among the emergency room controls, the proportion of hard shell helmet users and foam helmet users was 26.4% and 11.4%, respectively. Compared to non-helmet users, this gave an odds ratio of 0.36 (CI = 0.21-0.60) for getting head injuries if the cyclists had been using hard shell helmets at the time of the injury, and 0.83 (CI = 0.41-1.67) for users of foam helmets. The odds ratio for getting face injuries was 0.90 (CI = 0.58-1.41) among users of hard shell helmets, and 1.87 (CI = 1.03-3.40) for users of foam helmets. The use of hard shell helmets reduced the risk of getting injuries to the head. Children less than nine years old that used foam helmets had an increased risk of getting face injuries. All bicyclists should be recommended to use hard shell bicycle helmets while cycling.     

Application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land – a scenario analysis

Source separation, composting and anaerobic digestion, with associated land application, are increasingly being considered as alternative waste management strategies to landfilling and incineration of municipal solid waste (MSW). Environmental life cycle assessments are a useful tool in political decision-making about waste management strategies. However, due to the diversity of processed organic MSW and the situations in which it can be applied, the environmental impacts of land application are very hard to determine by experimental means. In the current study, we used the agroecosystem model Daisy to simulate a range of different scenarios representing different geographical areas, farm and soil types under Danish conditions and legislation. Generally, the application of processed organic MSW resulted in increased emissions compared with the corresponding standard scenarios, but with large differences between scenarios. Emission coefficients for nitrogen leaching to the groundwater ranged from 0.03 to 0.87, while those for nitrogen lost to surface waters through tile drains ranged from 0 to 0.30. Emission coefficients for N₂O formation ranged from 0.013 to 0.022 and for ammonia volatilization from 0.016 to 0.11. These estimates are within reasonable range of observed values under similar conditions. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis showed that the estimates were not very sensitive to the mineralization dynamics of the processed organic MSW. The results show that agroecosystem models can be powerful tools to estimate the environmental impacts of land application of processed MSW under different conditions. Despite this, agroecosystem models have only been used to a very limited degree for this purpose.     

从亚马孙泛滥平原森林中获取林产品的经济重要性

秘鲁亚马孙流域的农民从事农业,同时从天然林,河流和湖泊中获取各种各样的产品,他们多样化的生活方式包括捕鱼,狞猎和采集植物产品.在2个泛滥平原的村庄里,我们已经收集了一年的资料对当地农业经济与为满足生活基本需求和商业贸易的林业经济进行比较.此研究中的林产品包括动物产品(狞猎和捕鱼)和植物产品(木材和非木材).结果表明为了生活需要而获取的林产品尤其是鱼,是当地经济的支柱.获取林产品的日净收入高于种植和非熟练工人正常的日工资收入,这说明在实施任何土地开发利用的决策之前对社会经济情况进行全面的调查研究显得尤为重要.每公顷天然林可获取林产品的价值为平均每年13美元,平均每户可利用的天然林面积为113hm2.如果把农业产出也计算在内的话,每公顷土地的总产值(包括农业和林业)就上升到每年21美元.     

莫桑比克的海洋生物学研究:过去、现在及未来

本文概述了莫桑比克包括渔业在内的海洋生物学研究的发展情况.莫桑比克的海岸线约为3000km,海洋的生物资源在莫桑比克的社会中起着重要的作用,主要是作为人们的蛋白质来源以及收入和出口创汇的来源.     

气候变化与紫外线B辐射对北极苔原和极地荒漠生态系统的影响重要发现和扩展总结

引言 北极已成为对当前气候波动和预计的全球变暖增强的影响进行评估的重要地区.原因有以下几个方面:①在过去几十年中北极经历了大幅度的变暖过程(温度平均升高3℃,而在许多地区温度升高了4～5℃);②气候预测表明气候呈现持续变暖趋势,在2080年之前年平均气温升高4～5℃;③近期的气候变暖正在影响北极的环境和经济,这些影响还会加大,并对生活方式、文化及生态系统造成影响;④北极的变化可能会影响到地球上的其它地区.     

气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

耕作和混合农业体系未来植物养分利用的前景和挑战

在不污染环境的情况下生产足量的健康食品对未来世界农业是一个严重挑战.瑞典"21世纪的食物"研究计划已经研究了可持续耕作体系的经济的、环境的以及社会的各个方面,本文列举了瑞典"21世纪的食物"研究计划以及其它相关的国际研究计划中注重改善养分利用效率的一些研究,特别是氮和磷.它表明有许多可持续性解决养分利用效率的方法,有些很复杂,但有些就很简单.政府政策包括津贴、研究和技术以及公众对耕作方式的认可,所有这些都与制定这些解决方法结合在一起.需要知识转让的参与式途径,这样科学家、政策决策者、农场主、顾问以及消费者们可以交流信息,一起构建可持续的耕作体系.     

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate is obtained from experiments in the laboratory. Phosphorus in the sediment can be divided into exchangeable and non-exchangeable phosphorus. The exchangeable phosphorus is decomposed in accordance with a first-order reaction. The phosphorus moves, after the decomposition process, from the interstitial water to the water phase, in accordance with a diffusion expression. The yearly increase of the sediment was determined by means of the lead concentration as a function of the depth.