Running Out of Water! Developing a Message Typology and Evaluating Message Effects on Attitude Toward Water Conservation

In three phases, this study identifies and evaluates the major messages being used in communication campaigns focused on the ongoing drought in California. A literature review in Phase 1 resulted in a typology of 12 message strategies. Following this typology, trained coders in Phase 2 evaluated water conservation messages (N?=?100) to determine whether each message utilized one or multiple strategies. The results revealed various frequencies of strategy application; and a correlational analysis rendered a pattern of strategy use in combinations. Phase 3 focused on a controlled message experiment applying the three most relevant strategies: conservation tips, loss aversion, and evidence of drought. Analysing data sampled from California residents (N?=?180), conservation messages, regardless of the strategy, led to attitude change in a negative direction. Additional analyses revealed interesting patterns of combinatorial strategy effects. The results call for a re-examination of message strategies as they may lead to several unfavourable outcomes.     

Evaluating Flow Metric‐Based Stream Classification Systems to Support the Determination of Ecological Flows in North Carolina

Hydroecological classification systems are typically based on an assemblage of streamflow metrics and seek to divide streams into ecologically relevant classes. Assignment of streams to classes is suggested as an initial step in the process of establishing ecological flow standards. We used two distinct hydroecological river classification systems available within North Carolina to evaluate the ability of a hydrologic model to assign the same classes as those determined by observed streamflows and to assess the transferability of such systems to ungaged streams. Class assignments were examined by rate of overall matches, rate of class matches, spatial variability in matches, and time period used in class assignment. The findings of this study indicate assignments of stream class: (1) are inconsistent among different classification systems; (2) differ between observed and modeled data; and (3) are sensitive to the period of record within observed data. One clear source of inconsistency/sensitivity in class assignments lies with the use of threshold values for metrics that distinguish stream classes, such that even small changes in metric values can result in different class assignments. Because these two hydroecological classification systems are representative of other classification systems that rely on quantitative decision thresholds, it can be surmised that the use of such systems based on stream flow metrics is not a reliable approach for guiding ecological flow determinations.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Snow Depletion Curves Derived from SNODAS for the Conterminous United States, 2004‐2013

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental‐scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental‐extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1‐km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed‐scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed‐scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States (n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national‐scale categorization of snowmelt processes.     

The Ecotoxicological Recovery of Ely Creek and Tributaries (Lee County, VA) after Remediation of Acid Mine Drainage

The Ely Creek watershed (Lee County, VA) was determined in 1995 to be the most negatively affected by acid mine drainage (AMD) within the Virginia coalfield. This determination led the US Army Corps of Engineers to design and build passive wetland remediation systems at two major AMD seeps affecting Ely Creek. This study was undertaken to determine if ecological recovery had occurred in Ely Creek. The results indicate that remediation had a positive effect on all monitoring sites downstream of the remediated AMD seeps. At the site most impacted by AMD, mean pH was 2.93 prior to remediation and improved to 7.14 in 2004. Benthic macroinvertebrate surveys revealed that one AMD influenced site had increased taxa richness from zero taxa in 1997 to 24 in 2004. While in situ testing of Asian clams resulted in zero survival at five of seven AMD influenced sites prior to remediation, some clams survived at all sites after. Clam survival was found to be significantly less than upstream references at only two sites, both downstream of un-mitigated AMD seeps in 2004. An ecotoxicological rating (ETR) system that combined ten biotic and abiotic parameters was developed as an indicator of the ecological status for each study site. A comparison of ETRs from before and after remediation demonstrated that all sites downstream of the remediation had experienced some level of recovery. Although the remediation has improved the ecological health of Ely Creek, un-mitigated AMD discharges are still negatively impacting the watershed.     

The influence of pollen quality on foraging behavior in honeybees (Apis mellifera L.)

Individual and colony-level foraging behaviors were evaluated in response to changes in the quantity or nutritional quality of pollen stored within honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) colonies. Colonies were housed in vertical, three-frame observation hives situated inside a building, with entrances leading to the exterior. Before receiving treatments, all colonies were deprived of pollen for 5 days and pollen foragers were marked. In one treatment group, colony pollen reserves were quantitatively manipulated to a low or high level, either by starving colonies of pollen or by providing them with a fully provisioned frame of pollen composed of mixed species. In another treatment group, pollen reserves were qualitatively manipulated by removing pollen stores from colonies and replacing them with low- or high-protein pollen supplements. After applying treatments, foraging rates were measured four times per day and pollen pellets were collected from experienced and inexperienced foragers to determine their weight, species composition, and protein content. Honeybee colonies responded to decreases in the quantity or quality of pollen reserves by increasing the proportion of pollen foragers in their foraging populations, without increasing the overall foraging rate. Manipulation of pollen stores had no effect on the breadth of floral species collected by colonies, or their preferences for the size or protein content of pollen grains. In addition, treatments had no effect on the weight of pollen loads collected by individual foragers or the number of floral species collected per foraging trip. However, significant changes in foraging behavior were detected in relation to the experience level of foragers. Irrespective of treatment group, inexperienced foragers exerted greater effort by collecting heavier pollen loads and also sampled their floral environment more extensively than experienced foragers. Overall, our results indicate that honeybees respond to deficiencies in the quantity or quality of their pollen reserves by increasing the gross amount of pollen returned to the colony, rather than by specializing in collecting pollen with a greater protein content. Individual pollen foragers appear to be insensitive to the quality of pollen they collect, indicating that colony-level feedback is necessary to regulate the flow of protein to and within the colony. Colonies may respond to changes in the quality of their pollen stores by adjusting the numbers of inexperienced to experienced foragers within their foraging populations.     

Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

Reducing Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty: Application and Qualitative Assessment of the Upper Klamath River Basin,Oregon1

Abstract: The accuracy of streamflow forecasts depends on the uncertainty associated with future weather and the accuracy of the hydrologic model that is used to produce the forecasts. We present a method for streamflow forecasting where hydrologic model parameters are selected based on the climate state. Parameter sets for a hydrologic model are conditioned on an atmospheric pressure index defined using mean November through February (NDJF) 700‐hectoPascal geopotential heights over northwestern North America [Pressure Index from Geopotential heights (PIG)]. The hydrologic model is applied in the Sprague River basin (SRB), a snowmelt‐dominated basin located in the Upper Klamath basin in Oregon. In the SRB, the majority of streamflow occurs during March through May (MAM). Water years (WYs) 1980‐2004 were divided into three groups based on their respective PIG values (high, medium, and low PIG). Low (high) PIG years tend to have higher (lower) than average MAM streamflow. Four parameter sets were calibrated for the SRB, each using a different set of WYs. The initial set used WYs 1995‐2004 and the remaining three used WYs defined as high‐, medium‐, and low‐PIG years. Two sets of March, April, and May streamflow volume forecasts were made using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The first set of ESP simulations used the initial parameter set. Because the PIG is defined using NDJF pressure heights, forecasts starting in March can be made using the PIG parameter set that corresponds with the year being forecasted. The second set of ESP simulations used the parameter set associated with the given PIG year. Comparison of the ESP sets indicates that more accuracy and less variability in volume forecasts may be possible when the ESP is conditioned using the PIG. This is especially true during the high‐PIG years (low‐flow years).     

The Effectiveness of Contrasting Protected Areas in Preventing Deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru

Accurate monitoring of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in decreasing deforestation is increasingly important given the vital role of forest protection in climate change mitigation. Recent studies on PA effectiveness have used remote-sensing imagery to compare deforestation rates within PAs to surrounding areas. However, remote-sensing data used in isolation provides limited information on the factors contributing to effectiveness. We used landscape-modelling techniques to estimate the effectiveness of ten PAs in Madre de Dios, Peru. Factors influencing PA effectiveness were investigated using in situ key-informant interviews. Although all of the PAs studied had positive effectiveness scores, those with the highest scores were ecotourism and conservation concessions, where monitoring and surveillance activities and good relations with surrounding communities were reported as possible factors in decreasing deforestation rates. Native community areas had the lowest scores, with deforestation mainly driven by internal resource use and population growth. Weak local governance and immigration were identified as underlying factors decreasing the effectiveness of protection, whereas good relations with surrounding communities and monitoring activity increased effectiveness. The results highlight the need to combine remote sensing with in situ information on PA management because identification of drivers and deterrents of deforestation is vital for improving the effectiveness of protection.