Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.     

Signaling effort does not predict aggressiveness in male spring field crickets

The relationship between signaling and aggression is still unclear despite several decades of research. However, there is a growing interest in studying signals that predict aggressive behavior or fighting ability. The goals of our study were threefold: we investigated the relationship between signaling effort and aggression, the relationship between body condition and aggression, and the effect of fighting experience on subsequent signaling behavior in wild-caught and laboratory-reared male spring field crickets (Gryllus veletis). We found that aggressive behavior was not related to signaling effort, body size, or body condition. For contest winners, wild-captured males were more aggressive than laboratory-reared males. Signaling effort was highly repeatable within individuals, but aggressive behavior had low repeatability. We found no evidence for a winner or loser effect on signaling; there was no change in signaling effort when we compared contest winners and losers before and after they participated in aggressive contests. Long-distance acoustic signaling and aggressive behavior appear to be independent of one another in spring field crickets, perhaps serving different functions in female attraction and male–male competition, respectively.     

Population-level compensation impedes biological control of an invasive forb and indirect release of a native grass

The intentional introduction of specialist insect herbivores for biological control of exotic weeds provides ideal but understudied systems for evaluating important ecological concepts related to top-down control, plant compensatory responses, indirect effects, and the influence of environmental context on these processes. Centaurea stoebe (spotted knapweed) is a notorious rangeland weed that exhibited regional declines in the early 2000s, attributed to drought by some and to successful biocontrol by others. We initiated an experiment to quantify the effects of the biocontrol agent, Cyphocleonus achates, on Ce. stoebe and its interaction with a dominant native grass competitor, Pseudoroegneria spicata, under contrasting precipitation conditions. Plots containing monocultures of each plant species or equal mixtures of the two received factorial combinations of Cy. achates herbivory (exclusion or addition) and precipitation (May-June drought or "normal," defined by the 50-year average) for three years. Cy. achates herbivory reduced survival of adult Ce. stoebe plants by 9% overall, but this effect was stronger under normal precipitation compared to drought conditions, and stronger in mixed-species plots compared to monocultures. Herbivory had no effect on Ce. stoebe per capita seed production or on recruitment of seedlings or juveniles. In normal-precipitation plots of mixed composition, greater adult mortality due to Cy. achates herbivory resulted in increased recruitment of new adult Ce. stoebe. Due to this compensatory response to adult mortality, final Ce. stoebe densities did not differ between herbivory treatments regardless of context. Experimental drought reduced adult Ce. stoebe survival in mixed-species plots but did not impede recruitment of new adults or reduce final Ce. stoebe densities, perhaps due to the limited duration of the treatment. Ce. stoebe strongly depressed P. spicata reproduction and recruitment, but these impacts were not substantively alleviated by herbivory on Ce. stoebe. Population-level compensation by dominant plants may be an important factor inhibiting top-down effects in herbivore-driven and predator-driven cascades.     

Shark personalities? Repeatability of social network traits in a widely distributed predatory fish

Interest in animal personalities has generated a burgeoning literature on repeatability in individual traits such as boldness or exploration through time or across different contexts. Yet, repeatability can be influenced by the interactive social strategies of individuals, for example, consistent inter-individual variation in aggression is well documented. Previous work has largely focused on the social aspects of repeatability in animal behaviour by testing individuals in dyadic pairings. Under natural conditions, individuals interact in a heterogeneous polyadic network. However, the extent to which there is repeatability of social traits at this higher order network level remains unknown. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence of consistent and repeatable animal social networks. Using a model species of shark, a taxonomic group in which repeatability in behaviour has yet to be described, we repeatedly quantified the social networks of ten independent shark groups across different habitats, testing repeatability in individual network position under changing environments. To understand better the mechanisms behind repeatable social behaviour, we also explored the coupling between individual preferences for specific group sizes and social network position. We quantify repeatability in sharks by demonstrating that despite changes in aggregation measured at the group level, the social network position of individuals is consistent across treatments. Group size preferences were found to influence the social network position of individuals in small groups but less so for larger groups suggesting network structure, and thus, repeatability was driven by social preference over aggregation tendency.     

Large carnivore hunting and the social license to hunt

The social license to operate framework considers how society grants or withholds informal permission for resource extractors to exploit publicly owned resources. We developed a modified model, which we refer to as the social license to hunt (SLH). In it we similarly consider hunters as operators, given that wildlife are legally considered public resources in North America and Europe. We applied the SLH model to examine the controversial hunting of large carnivores, which are frequently killed for trophies. Killing for trophies is widespread, but undertaken by a minority of hunters, and can pose threats to the SLH for trophy-seeking carnivore hunters and potentially beyond. Societal opposition to large carnivore hunting relates not only to conservation concerns but also to misalignment between killing for trophies and dominant public values and attitudes concerning the treatment of animals. We summarized cases related to the killing of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and other large carnivores in Canada, the United States, and Europe to illustrate how opposition to large carnivore hunting, now expressed primarily on social media, can exert rapid and significant pressure on policy makers and politicians. Evidence of the potential for transformative change to wildlife management and conservation includes proposed and realized changes to legislation, business practice, and wildlife policy, including the banning of some large carnivore hunts. Given that policy is ultimately shaped by societal values and attitudes, research gaps include developing increased insight into public support of various hunting policies beyond that derived from monitoring of social media and public polling. Informed by increased evidence, the SLH model can provide a conceptual foundation for predicting the likelihood of transient versus enduring changes to wildlife conservation policy and practice for a wide variety of taxa and contexts.     

The 2014 Walrus Haul Out: A Case Study of Selective Exposure to Environmental News Coverage

In this article we examine in real time the political selective exposure process involved when the public confronted the “walrus haul out” of October 2014, a news event attributed by some climate change researchers to the effects of the climate change-driven reduction of Arctic sea ice. Analyzing data assessing the amount of major TV and cable news network coverage of the haul out, and evaluating public opinion data collected from a rolling cross-sectional survey of US adults take at the time, we show that coverage of this event was not equitably distributed across news media news sources, that exposure to news source is related to the respondents’ ideological dispositions, and that exposure to coverage of the walrus haul out is related to ideology, the selectivity of political news habits, and climate change knowledge. We conclude with a discussion of the apparent inevitability of selective exposure to media coverage of climate change-related events and the implications for effective climate change communication.     

Confined placental mosaicism in CVS and pregnancy outcome

The perinatal outcome of 26 patients with confined placental mosaicism (CPM) detected in chorionic villus sampling (CVS) who wished to continue their pregnancies was compared with that of two controls per patient matched for age and parity (n=52). There were no significant differences in birth weight or gestational age at delivery between patients with CPM and controls. There were no cases of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the CPM patients as compared with two (2/52, 3·8 per cent) in the control group (P>0·05). There was no significant increase in fetal loss between the study group (1/26, 3·6 per cent) and the controls (1/52, 1·9 per cent) (P>0·05).