What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

Sorption of the herbicides diquat and difenzoquat from aqueous medium by polymeric resins in the presence of sodium dodecylsulfate: Kinetic and mechanistic study

The goal of this work was to propose a novel method for the solid-phase extraction of the herbicides diquat (DQT²⁺) and difenzoquat (DFQT⁺) from aqueous medium using polymeric Amberlite XAD-2 and XAD-4 resins in the presence of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS). The addition of SDS to the medium was of fundamental importance in order to allow the formation of a negatively charged surface able to sorb the cationic solutes. Several factors that could influence the sorption process, such as SDS concentration in the medium, sorbent mass, pH, ionic strength, and initial concentration of the solutes were investigated. Kinetic studies were also performed to model the system and to identify the mechanisms that operate the sorption process of the herbicides. SDS concentration in the medium presented remarkable influence on the extraction efficiency, achieving maximum values when the ratios [SDS]/[herbicide] were approximately 90, for XAD-2, and 22 and 11 for DQT²⁺ and DFQT⁺, respectively, for XAD-4. The sorption process followed a pseudo second-order kinetic in all cases studied. It was also found that an intraparticle diffusion process controlled exclusively the sorption of the herbicides by the Amberlite XAD-2 and XAD-4 resins in the first 15 min, becoming less active with time.     

瑞典维纳恩湖的沉积物和鱼类种群中的汞:污染后的恢复状况

过去流入维纳恩湖的含汞废水颇多.通过连续测定沉积物和鱼体中的汞来监测其影响和恢复状况.汞的主要源头来自湖北岸的一座氯工厂.尽管60年代从源头流出的废水中汞水平有了根本性的减少,附近湖泊沉积物中汞的水平从70年代中期以来只下降了一半多.狗鱼(Esox lucus)体内汞的水平在同期下降的幅度相似.湖泊受影响最大的部分比受影响最小的部分要高出30%.湖泊中的鲈鱼(Percafhviatilis)和三文鱼鱼体内汞水平不高.尽管维纳恩湖沉积物中汞水平有所增加,比起位于同一地区而没有受当地汞废水污染湖泊内的鱼来说,维纳恩湖鱼体内汞的水平相对来说并不算高.据估算,湖内鱼类总生物量所含的汞不到湖泊底部沉积物上层活性生物层所含汞总量的千分之一.这显示了各种环境因子的潜在影响,并促使我们将来要继续对汞水平进行监测.     

环境监测策略评价

在环境监测中,监测系统在非预期事件出现时能够发出早期预警是很重要的.这些事件具有突发,或者难以观测到的性质.在设计这类监测系统时,必须在成本和风险之间达到一个适当的平衡.传统意义上有两类和早期预警系统相关联的风险,即没有检测到重要变化的风险和错误预警的风险.本文的目的是阐述一种在考虑了传统类型的风险和成本的情况下来比较不同监测系统性能的方法.这个方法被试用于地衣植被的监测中,并采用预期效应作为性能的度量标准.在估计事件的概率时,应用了空间微观模拟技术(spatial microsimulation)和蒙特卡罗模拟技术.所评估的监测计划基于卫星图像、航空照片、野外采样和土地覆被图.研究的主要结论是,标准化质量度量在环境监测方法可用性的评估中是极为有用的.另外,空间微观模拟技术在效益和成本估计中是可用的.不过要改进算法,还需要应用宏观约束(macroconstraints)来修正模拟模型.     

雄性波罗的海灰海豹(Halichoerus grypus)骨组织的矿物密度

本文利用非侵入计算层析X射线摄影法(pQCT)研究了雄性波罗的海灰海豹(4～23岁龄)骨组织的矿物密度(mg/cm3).资料按照收集的年份分组.A组1850～1955年,有机氯(OCs)大量引入之前的时期;B组1965～1985年,OC污染十分严重的时期;C组1986～1997年,OCs浓度逐渐减小的时期.测量结果的复现性良好,变异系数(CV)为0.1%～2.1%.1986～1997年收集的标本中桡骨小梁的矿物密度比1965～1985年收集的标本的明显要高(p＜0.05).1986～1997年收集的标本中,下颌骨的皮层骨矿物密度明显地低于1850～1955年收集的标本(p＜0.05).这些结果表明小梁和皮层骨在一段时间内的不同响应.在OC污染非常严重的时期(1965～1985年),小梁骨矿物密度最低,而在1985～1997年收集的标本中,皮层骨密度最低,该时段是一个OC污染程度相当低的时期.有关这些效应背后的机制目前尚不知道.但是,可以假定这里涉及到OCs.由于目前缺乏有关研究个体中OCs残留水平的资料,因此不可能评估OCs在这方面的影响.     

Swarming and mating behavior of a mayfly Baetis bicaudatus suggest stabilizing selection for male body size

Large size often confers a fitness advantage to female insects because fecundity increases with body size. However, the fitness benefits of large size for male insects are less clear. We investigated the mating behavior of the mayfly Baetis bicaudatus to determine whether the probability of male mating success increased with body size. Males formed mating aggregations (swarms) ranging from a few to hundreds of individuals, 1-4 m above the ground for about 1.5-2 h in the early morning. Females that flew near swarms were grabbed by males, pairs dropped to the vegetation where they mated and then flew off individually. Some marked males returned to swarms 1, 2 or 3 days after marking. Larger males swarmed near spruce trees at the edges of meadows, but the probability of copulating was not a function of male body size (no large male advantage). Furthermore, the potential fitness advantage of mating with larger, more fecund females was not greater for large males (no size-assortative mating). However, the sizes of copulating males were significantly less variable than those of non-mating males collected at random in swarms. Intermediate male size may be optimal during mating because of trade-offs between flight agility and longevity or competitive ability. Results of this study are consistent with the hypotheses that there is stabilizing selection on adult male body size during mating, and that male body size in this species may be influenced more by selection pressures acting on larvae than on adults.     

Screening life cycle assessment (LCA) of tomato ketchup: a case study

A screening life cycle assessment (LCA) of tomato ketchup has been carried out. The purpose was to identify ‘hot-spots', that is parts of the life-cycle that are important to the total environmental impact. The system investigated includes agricultural production, industrial refining, packaging, transportation, consumption and waste management. Energy use and emissions were quantified and some of the potential environmental effects assessed. Packaging and food processing were found to be hot-spots for many, but not all, of the impact categories investigated. For primary energy use, the storage time in a refrigerator (household phase) was found to be a critical parameter.     

Evaluation of environmental monitoring strategies

In environmental monitoring, it is important that the monitoring system should emit early warnings when undesired events occur. These events may be sudden or of a more subtle nature. In the design of such monitoring systems, a proper balance between cost and risk must be achieved. There are 2 classic types of risk connected with early warning systems, namely the risk of not detecting significant changes and the risk of false alarms. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for comparing the performance of different monitoring systems, considering the classic types of risk and cost. The method is applied to the monitoring of the lichen cover as a test case. The expected utility has been used as a measure of performance. When estimating the probabilities of the events, spatial microsimulation and Monte-Carlo simulation techniques have been used. The monitoring programs studied are based on satellite images, aerial photos, field samples, and land-cover maps. The major conclusions of this study are that standardized quality measures are extremely useful for evaluating the usability of environmental monitoring methods. In addition, when estimating gains and costs, spatial microsimulation techniques are useful. To improve the method, however, macroconstraints should also be used for aligning the simulation model.     

Circumpolar terrestrial arthropod monitoring: A review of ongoing activities,opportunities and challenges,with a focus on spiders

The terrestrial chapter of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) has the potential to bring international multi-taxon, long-term monitoring together, but detailed fundamental species information for Arctic arthropods lags far behind that for vertebrates and plants. In this paper, we demonstrate this major challenge to the CBMP by focussing on spiders (Order: Araneae) as an example group. We collate available circumpolar data on the distribution of spiders and highlight the current monitoring opportunities and identify the key knowledge gaps to address before monitoring can become efficient. We found spider data to be more complete than data for other taxa, but still variable in quality and availability between Arctic regions, highlighting the need for greater international co-operation for baseline studies and data sharing. There is also a dearth of long-term datasets for spiders and other arthropod groups from which to assess status and trends of biodiversity. Therefore, baseline studies should be conducted at all monitoring stations and we make recommendations for the development of the CBMP in relation to terrestrial arthropods more generally.