Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

We discuss the background and methods for estimating uncertainty in a holistic manner in a regional terrestrial biota Full Carbon Account (FCA) using our experience in generating such an account for vast regions in northern Eurasia (at national and macroregional levels). For such an analysis, it is important to (1) provide a full account; (2) consider the relevance of a verified account, bearing in mind further transition to a certified account; (3) understand that any FCA is a fuzzy system; and (4) understand that a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties requires multiple harmonizing and combining of system constraints from results obtained by different methods. An important result of this analysis is the conclusion that only a relevant integration of inventory, process-based models, and measurements in situ generate sufficient prerequisites for a verified FCA. We show that the use of integrated methodology, at the current level of knowledge, and the system combination of available information, allow a verified FCA for large regions of the northern hemisphere to be made for current periods and for the recent past.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

Polymorphic ROS scavenging revealed by CCCP in a lizard

Ingestion of antioxidants has been argued to scavenge circulating reactive molecules (e.g., free radicals), play a part in mate choice (by mediating access to this important resource), and perhaps increase life span. However, recent work has come to question these relationships. We have shown elsewhere in the polychromatic lizard, Ctenophorus pictus, that diet supplementation of carotenoids as antioxidants does not depress circulating natural reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and leads to no corresponding improvement of color traits. However, a much stronger test would be to experimentally manipulate the ROS levels themselves and assess carotenoid-induced ROS depression. Here, we achieve this by using carbonyl cyanide 3-chlorophenylhydrazone, which elevates superoxide (SO) formation approximately threefold at 10 μM in this model system. We then look for depressing effects on ROS of the carotenoids in order to assess whether ‘super-production’ of SO makes carotenoid effects on elevated ROS levels detectable. The rationale for this treatment was that if not even such elevated levels of SO are reduced by carotenoid supplementation, the putative link carotenoids, ROS depression, and mate quality (in terms of antioxidant capacity) is highly questionable. We conclude that there is no significant effect of carotenoids on mean SO levels even at the induced ROS levels. However, our results showed a significant interaction effect between carotenoid treatment and male color, with red males having higher ROS levels than yellow males. We suggest that this may be because different pigments are differently involved in the generation of the integumental colors in the two morphs with concomitant effects on ROS depletion depending on carotenoid uptake or allocation to coloration and antioxidation.     

Individual heterogeneity and senescence in silvereyes on Heron Island

Individual heterogeneity and correlations between life history traits play a fundamental role in life history evolution and population dynamics. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in survival can be a nuisance for estimation of age effects at the individual level by causing bias due to mortality selection. We jointly analyze survival and breeding output from successful breeding attempts in an island population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) by fitting models that incorporate age effects and individual heterogeneity via random effects. The number of offspring produced increased with age of parents in their first years of life but then eventually declined with age. A similar pattern was found for the probability of successful breeding. Annual survival declined with age even when individual heterogeneity was not accounted for. The rate of senescence in survival, however, depends on the variance of individual heterogeneity and vice versa; hence, both cannot be simultaneously estimated with precision. Model selection supported individual heterogeneity in breeding performance, but we found no correlation between individual heterogeneity in survival and breeding performance. We argue that individual random effects, unless unambiguously identified, should be treated as statistical nuisance or taken as a starting point in a search for mechanisms rather than given direct biological interpretation.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The Relationship Between Shift Work Schedules and Spillover in a Sample of Nurses

The aim of the present study was to estimate spillover effects between the work and the family sphere in a sample of nurses (N = 2058). Hierarchical regression analyses investigated whether shift work schedules were associated with negative or positive spillover, both from family to work and vice versa, controlling for demographic factors, job demands and decision latitude. With daytime work as a reference group, all types of shift work (day and evening shift, night shift only and rotating 3 shift) were associated with higher negative work-to-family spillover. Night work was associated with significantly less negative family-to-work spillover. None of the different shift work schedules were related to any type of positive spillover. The results indicate that working outside of daytime hours is less compatible with workers’ family lives, compared to working ordinary day shifts. On the other hand, working night shifts only was associated with reduced negative family-to-work spillover.     

Games Real Farmers Play: Knowledge,memory and the fate of collective action to prevent eutrophication of water catchments

This paper analyses the outcome of an actor game aimed at finding ways to institutionalise farmer co-operation in a water catchment threatened by eutrophication from heavy use of fertilisers. Although offered several advantageous options for collective action, acting farmers stuck to their preference for individual management in spite of very draconian measures from central authorities. Theories on collective action developed by Mancur Olson and Elinor Ostrom cover some ground in explaining this puzzling outcome, as do Fritz Scharpf's models of games played out under the 'shadow of hierarchy'. However, the most decisive factor for the farmers' choice of strategy seems to stand Mancur Olson's theory on its head, and adds to the importance of trust and reciprocity emphasised by Elinor Ostrom. Because the farmers knew each other well, and because of the transparency of farmers' action in the geographically limited catchment, they turned down options of co-operation; too few farmers were considered trustworthy enough to make it worthwhile to engage in collective action. Theories of 'collective memories of the history of play' in an area or on an issue should thus be given more concern in future efforts to bring about collective action towards common pool resources. Este documento analiza el resultado de juego de actor dirigido a encontrar formas de institucionalizar la cooperación entre agricultores en la captación de agua amenazada por eutroficación de fuerte uso de fertilizantes. Aunque ofrecieron varias opciones ventajosas para la acción colectiva, los agricultores participantes se quedan apegados a sus preferencias de manejo individual a pesar de las medidas bastante draconianas de las autoridades centrales. Las teorias de acción colectiva desarrolladas por Mancur Olson y Elinor Ostrom cubren algún terreno en explicar este curioso resultado, al igual que los modelos de juego de Fritz Scharpf jugados bajo la "sombra de jerarquia". Sin embargo, el factor mas decisivo para la estrategia de decisión de los agricultores parece poner la teoria de Mancur Olson de revéz y se suma a la importancia de la confianza y reciprocidad enfatizada por Elinor Ostrom. Debido a que los agricultores se conocian bien y a la transparencia de la accion de agricultores en la captacion limitada geograficamente, ellos rechazaron opciones de cooperación; muy pocos agricultores fueron considerados de suficiente confianza para que merecieran participar en acción colectiva. Las teorias de "memorias colectivas de la historia del juego" en una área o sobre un asunto deben de esta manera estar mostrando mayor interes en esfuerzos futuros para atraer la acción colectiva hacia recursos de fondo común.     

The importance of atmospheric deposition, charge and atomic mass to the dynamics of minor and rare elements in developing, ageing, and wilted leaves of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

The amounts of sixty elements in developing, maturing, senescent and wilting leaves, and in the wintering dead leaves attached to the branches, are reported for a beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest on mor Podzol in south Sweden, a site with no local sources of pollution or geological anomalies. The amounts (contents per leaf) of K (potassium), Rb (rubidium), Cs (caesium), Cu (copper) and P (phosphorus) were highest in young leaves, decreasing throughout the growing season and usually in the subsequent winter. The entirely opposite pattern with a continuous, mostly even increase of the amounts was measured with Be (beryllium), Ba (barium), Hg (mercury), Al (aluminium), Tl (thallium), Pb (lead), Bi (bismuth), V (vanadium), W (tungsten), As (arsenic), Sb (antimony), and Se (selenium). Amounts of rare-earth elements and some transition metals, such as Co (cobalt), Ti (titanium), and the actinides Th (thorium) and U (uranium) were more stable during the growing season, after an initial increase in early summer, but increased greatly in the winter. This winter increase in dead attached leaves has to be accounted for by uptake from long-distance transported constituents in dry and wet deposition. It was similar to deposition rate estimates using moss carpets from the same locality. A passive uptake was positively related to ionic charge and atomic mass. However, the amounts of several, mainly non-essential elements, such as Ni (nickel), Sc (scandium), Zr (zirconium), Cr (chromium), Ag (silver), and Cd (cadmium) were not much lower in the young or maturing leaves than in the wintered dead leaves of this deciduous (hardwood) forest and a proportion apparently originated from internal translocation in the trees. Seasonal fluxes or cycling of many of the scarce or rare elements reported here have never been studied before in forest ecosystems.