THE COST OF PEAK CAPACITY WATER1

ABSTRACT: Calgary, the fastest growing city in Canada, is about to expand its urban water supply facilities in order to meet peak summer demands. Most of Calgary's residential water is sold by flat rate. The effect of this pricing policy on peak and average demands is discussed. The true marginal cost of peak capacity from the new expansion is calculated. The effect of a proposed metering program on capacity expansion requirements is computed. It is concluded that metering should preceed the next capacity expansion.     

Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley,Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment

Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83–0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15–25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.     

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.     

Analyzing maps of dispersal around a single focus

The spatial pattern of organisms may be used to characterize their dispersal, quantify spread or estimate the point of introduction of an alien species. Their distribution may be represented by maps of individuals, or by counts or by presence/absence at known positions within a sampled area. The problems and relative merits of these different forms of data for spatial inference are discussed. Three datasets concerning dispersal from a single focus are analyzed: counts of aphids, Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae, on barley plants, Hordeum vulgare, grown in experi- mental trays; mapped locations of couch grass, Elymus repens, tillers within plots of a field experiment; locations of sightings of the lupin aphid, Macrosiphum albifrons, as it invaded Great Britain between 1981 and 1984. A method for generating maps from counts is proposed to overcome problems caused by recording imprecision. Several statistics are used to quantify dispersal and spatial pattern in the experimental data and together provide a clear picture of the spatial pattern observed; they enabled several effects of the experimental treatments to be identified. The value of the statistics are compared. Estimates of the source of the lupin aphid invasion are obtained using the backtracking methods of Perry (1995b) and do not contradict previous suggestions.     

Elevated mid-trimester hCG and maternal lupus anticoagulant

An association is described between women with lupus anticoagulant and abnormal prenatal serum screening results. Three cases of positive second-trimester serum screening for Down syndrome, with karyotypically normal fetuses, in women demonstrated to have lupus anticoagulant are presented. Serum screening positivity was principally due to a disproportionately elevated maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) level. In each case, early, severe intrauterine growth restriction was documented, with only one fetus surviving the neonatal period. As maternal lupus anticoagulant may have a profoundly adverse effect on the course of pregnancy, we suggest that an elevated hCG level on prenatal screening prompt consideration of maternal lupus anticoagulant testing if ultrasonography demonstrates an otherwise normal singleton gestation and the fetal karyotype is normal.     

Eggshell colour does not predict measures of maternal investment in eggs of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus</Emphasis> thrushes

The striking diversity of avian eggshell colour has long fascinated biologists. Recently, it has been proposed that the blue-green colour of some eggs may function as a post-mating sexually selected signal of female phenotypic quality to their mates to induce higher allocation of paternal care. It has been suggested that maternally deposited yolk carotenoids may be the specific aspect of reproductive quality that the female is signalling via eggshell colour. We use the known properties of the thrush visual system (Turdus sp.) to calculate photon capture for the four single cone photoreceptors, and the principal member of the double cone class for eggs in clutches of two introduced European thrush species (Turdus merula and Turdus philomelos) in New Zealand. We show that differences in the avian-perceived colours of individual eggs are not consistently correlated with different measures of maternal investment in the egg. Given the growing extent of the knowledge between maternal quality, parental investment and eggshell pigmentation across avian taxa, we encourage the use of avian perceptual modelling for testing alternative non-signalling explanations for the structural and physiological basis of these relationships.     

Relative importance of benthic microalgae,phytoplankton, and mangroves as sources of nutrition for penaeid prawns and other coastal invertebrates from Malaysia

Carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen stable isotope ratio techniques were used in 1989 and 1990 to evaluate the relative importance of algae and of mangrove detritus in the nutrition of two penaeid prawn species on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Mangrove detritus was found to contribute to the nutrition of juvenile Penaeus merguiensis de Man living within tidal creeks, but not to adult P. merguiensis and juvenile and adult Parapenaeopsis sculptilis (Heller) captured offshore. Results from radiotracer feeding studies, with refractory ¹⁴C mangrove lignocellulose as the food source, indicated that juvenile P. merguiensis from tidal creeks assimilated mangrove carbon with an efficiency of 13.4%. This did not differ significantly (P=0.05) from the assimilation efficiencies of juvenile and adult P. sculptilis living offshore (10.0 and 10.9%, respectively); these values were significantly higher (P<0.001) than for adult P. merguiensis (2.1%). Thus, the differential contribution of mangrove material to the nutrition of prawns in the tidal creeks and offshore was not related to differences in the prawn's ability to utilize detritus. Instead, our analysis of C stable isotopes in sediments indicated that mangrove detritus was generally more abundant within the tidal creeks than offshore. Juvenile prawns in the tidal creeks may also utilize mangrove material indirectly by feeding on small detritivorous invertebrates. Stable isotope analyses suggest that benthic microalgae constitute the other major dietary component for prawns living in tidal creeks. Prawns offshore were utilizing mainly phytoplankton-based material.     

Weighting waiting in collective decision-making

Animals searching for food, mates, or a home often need to decide when to stop looking and choose the best option found so far. By re-analyzing experimental data from experiments by Mallon et al. (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 50:352–359, 2001), we demonstrate that house-hunting ant colonies are gradually more committed to new nests during the emigration. Early in house-hunting, individual ants were flexibly committed to new nest sites. However, when carrying to a new nest had started, ants hardly ever switched preference. Using a theoretical model based on experimental data, we test at which stage flexible commitment influences speed and accuracy most. We demonstrate that ant colonies have found a good compromise between impatience and procrastination. Early flexibility combined with later rigidity is identically effective as other strategies that include flexible commitment, but it is particularly good when emigration conditions are harsh.