中型景观尺度下斑块类型和地理特征影响杨树人工林干部病害的发生——以河南省清丰县为例

景观病理学在开展病原扩散、病害发生及其严重程度方面以其全新的视角,为森林病害的区域控制提供了新的研究技术及理论支持。首次利用景观病理学原理和方法对河南省清丰县一个中型景观下杨树人工林干部病害发生特征开展了研究,目的是解析在大尺度下斑块类型和地理特征对杨树人工林病害发生的影响。在100 km2的调查区域,以种植方式和林分类型划分斑块类型,分析显示发病株率在不同斑块间差异显著：农田间作斑块的林木发病株率显著低于孤立斑块、纯林斑块、混交林等斑块的发病株率;但发病株率在孤立斑块、纯林斑块及混交林等斑块间无显著差异。抚育管理措施对预防和减轻杨树人工林干部病害的发生起到关键左右：精细管理林分（有修枝、施肥和锄草）的林木发病株率（p=0.001）和发病指数（p〈0.001）均显著低于粗放管理林分（无修枝、无施肥和锄草等）。人类活动,如无序修剪和放牧很可能是造成村落附近林分发病率显著高于其他地点林分的主要原因。采用logistic回归,以品种编号、树龄、树高、林分密度、林分郁闭度、林分类型、斑块类型、地理特征,等为自变量建立病害发生预测模型。方程拟合达到极显著水平（Wald=71.248,p〈0.001）。方程总的预测正确率为68.2%,发病的预测正确率为79.8%。     

CASS工艺脱氮影响因素分析

针对CASS工艺脱氮的效果不够理想、效率不高、出水不够稳定的现象，对脱氮的主要影响因素曝气时间、DO、温度、λ进行了生产性试验研究，分析结果表明，曝气时间3h，D02．5mg／L是本污水厂最合理的参数控制值，曝气时间3h时NH3-N和TN的平均去除率分别为89．7％和59．7％，D02．5mg／L时NH3-N和TN的平均去除率分别为94．5％和71．3％，脱氮效果良好；温度对脱氮的效果有很明显的影响，春季的脱氮效果明显好于冬季；脱氮效果随冲水比的增高而降低，但出水均达标说明CASS工艺有良好的抗冲击负荷的能力。     

An integrated method for safety pre-warning of complex system

In large-scale and complex industrial systems, unplanned outages and hazardous accidents cause huge economic losses, environmental contamination, and human injuries, due to component degradation, exogenous changes, and operational mistakes. In order to ensure safety and increase operational performance and reliability of complex system, this study proposes an integrated method for safety pre-warning to analyze the current safety state of each component and the whole system indicating hidden hazards and potential consequence, and furthermore predict future degradation trends in the long term.The work presented here describes the rationale and implementation of the integrated method incorporating HAZOP study, degradation process modeling, dynamic Bayesian network construction, condition monitoring, safety assessment and prognosis steps, taking advantage of the priori knowledge of the interactions and dependencies among components and the environment, the relationships between hazard causes and effects, and the use of historical failure data and online real-time data from condition monitoring.The application of the integrated safety pre-warning approach described here to the specific example of the gas turbine compressor system demonstrates how each phase of the presented method contributes to completion of the safety pre-warning system development in a systematic way.     

Review of recycling performance indicators: A study on collection rate in Taiwan

The Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (Taiwan EPA) launched a national Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system after integrating eight private recycling organizations in 1998. After that, the environmental performance of the EPR system brought a lot of attention to policy makers. Many studies show positive environmental effects of the EPR system in Taiwan. However, there are controversial questions remained, such as whether the performance indicators used are the right choice to estimate the environmental effects of the recycling policy? Can those estimated results really reflect the performance of the system?This paper would therefore like to more accurately evaluate the performance indicators of the EPR system based on data observed over the past decade in Taiwan. In the process of evaluating the performance indicators, we have found that the collection rates for durable goods are often ignored in countries that pursue a zero waste policy. This may affect the actual recycling outcome and resource direction targeted by producers. However, in order for the collection rate to be adopted as a policy indicator, how to estimate the amounts of retired or waste products during a period is critical. In this paper, we estimate the collection rate for electrical and electronic waste by using the survival analysis and ownership data analysis approaches. We also provide a comparison of both approaches and put forward suggestions for directions in the future in solid waste management.     

Simultaneous determination of three herbicides by differential pulse voltammetry and chemometrics

A novel differential pulse voltammetry method (DPV) was researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of Pendimethalin, Dinoseb and sodium 5-nitroguaiacolate (5NG) with the aid of chemometrics. The voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped significantly, and to facilitate the simultaneous determination of the three analytes, chemometrics methods were applied. These included classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and radial basis function-artificial neural networks (RBF-ANN). A separately prepared verification data set was used to confirm the calibrations, which were built from the original and first derivative data matrices of the voltammograms. On the basis relative prediction errors and recoveries of the analytes, the RBF-ANN and the DPLS (D – first derivative spectra) models performed best and are particularly recommended for application. The DPLS calibration model was applied satisfactorily for the prediction of the three analytes from market vegetables and lake water samples.     

Simple model for estimating dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction in a polluted nocturnal boundary layer

Determining the destructions of both ozone and odd oxygen, O_x, in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is important to evaluate the regional ozone budget and overnight ozone accumulation. This work develops a simple method to determine the dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction at a polluted nocturnal boundary layer. The destruction of O_x can also be determined simultaneously. The method is based on O₃ and NO₂ profiles and their surface measurements. Linkages between the dry deposition velocities of O₃ and NO₂ and between the dry deposition loss of O_x and its chemical loss are constructed and used. Field measurements are made at an agricultural site to demonstrate the application of the model. The model estimated nocturnal O₃ dry deposition velocities from 0.13 to 0.19 cm s^?1, very close to those previously obtained for similar land types. Additionally, dry deposition and chemical reactions account for 60 and 40% of the overall nocturnal ozone loss, respectively; ozone dry deposition accounts for 50% of the overall nocturnal loss of O_x, dry deposition of NO₂ accounts for another 20%, and chemical reactions account for the remaining 30%. The proposed method enables the use of measurements made in typical ozone field studies to evaluate various nocturnal destructions of O₃ and O_x in a polluted environment.     

氧化塘水质预测研究进展

本文讨论了氧化塘的净化污水机理和水质变化特点。提出了用于进行氧化塘水质预测的二维水质模型。探讨了氧化塘水质预测研究的发展趋势。     

四川酸性物湿沉降模式及预测

酸沉降是一复杂的大气物理和化学过程，涉及诸多复杂影响因素。目前，我国酸雨湿沉降模式还仅限于模拟云下洗脱成酸过程，而对云中的成酸过程还未进行深入研究，这不仅在理论上不完善，而且更重要是在许多情况下与我省实际情况不符。本课题针对四川省特定的地理，气象特点和严重的大气污染情况，并借鉴国外研究成果，提出了考虑酸性沉降的云中和云下成酸过程和各种影响因素的综合酸雨湿沉降模式，并根据此模式来估算和预测四川省酸雨     

深化改革 促进地震事业新发展——“地震科技的基础研究与应用研究”研讨班概述

本文概述了在当前面临地震队伍结构调整和人员分流的新形势下,如何进一步深化改革,追踪地震研究的世界先进水平,筛选和确定地震科研的前沿课题,为制定地震工作的深化改革政策提供科学依据。通过对30年地震预报实践的反思,提出今后发展方向。