A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.     

Assessment of trace element contamination in sediment cores from the Pearl River and estuary,South China: geochemical and multivariate analysis approaches

Twenty-four major and trace elements and the mineralogical composition of four sediment cores along the Pearl River and estuary were analyzed using ICP-AES, ICP-MS, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) to evaluate contamination levels. The dominant minerals were quartz, kaolinite, and illite, followed by montmorillonite and feldspars, while small amounts of halite and calcite were also observed in a few samples. Cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were performed to identify the element sources. The highest metal concentrations were found at Huangpu, primarily due to wastewater treatment plant discharge and/or the surreptitious dumping of sludge, and these data differed from those of other sources. Excluding the data from Huangpu, the PCA showed that most elements could be considered as lithogenic; few elements are the combination of lithogenic and anthropogenic sources. An antagonistic relationship between the anthropogenic source metals (K, Ba, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ag, Tl, and U) and marine source metals (Na, Mg, Ti, V, and Ca) was observed. The resulting normalized Al enrichment factor (EF) indicated very high or significant pollution of Cd, Ag, Cu, Zn, Mo, and Pb at Huangpu, which may cause serious environmental effects. Conflicting results between the PCA and EF can be attributed to the background values used, indicating that background values must be selected carefully.     

试用模糊数学方法对电焊作业防护措施进行综合评价

选择北京市四家锅炉厂的电焊工５６名，即从事手把焊、氩弧焊、ＣＯ２气体保护焊、电弧气爆等特种工种作业人员。通过调查，提出单项四级评分标准，再依模糊数学模型，进行综合评价。按Ｂ＝Ａ·Ｒ，求得Ｂ中最大元为０．７０７。最后总评为甲级。此结果与权数分配有关。此方法，可为劳动卫生管理（防护措施评级）提供依据。     

浅谈新时期安全监察工作

通过分析两个阶段的安全管理方法 ,说明传统管理沿用的原因 ,为做好现代化科学管理提出了几点探索性意见     

毕节地区各土类水土保持树种的Fuzzy评价

根据毕节地区16个主要造林树种的生态生物学特性,结合本区气候和土壤生态条件,运用 Fuzzy 二级评价模型,对各土类水土保持树种的适宜程度进行了综合评价。     

冷冻浓缩处理废水COD、TOC及能耗分析

从冷冻时间、初始温度、冷冻温度及废水浓度4个方面通过实验和理论计算分析,研究了冷冻浓缩处理高浓度有机废水的能耗情况及COD和TOC的去除率。通过冷冻实验和理论计算,确定了对COD浓度范围为10 000~30 000 mg/L的高浓度有机废水去除率较高、能耗较低各个因素的取值范围。其中冷冻时间在12~24 h、初始温度在5~15℃范围内,COD和TOC去除率达到60%以上,冷冻温度在-16~-12℃时COD和TOC去除率达到70%以上。相应的冷冻废水处理能耗范围为0.044~0.067 kW·h/kg。     

基于SD的施工企业安全文化建设方向研究

分析了施工企业安全文化的结构,归纳了影响施工企业安全文化形成因素,论述了施工企业安全文化自然演化和强制演化路径。利用系统动力学(SD)原理,借助软件VENSIM 5.6 a对施工企业安全文化2种演化路径进行了仿真模拟。通过仿真模拟得出了影响施工企业安全文化形成的最关键的5大因素,为施工企业指明了安全文化建设方向。     

甘肃省产业结构空间分异研究——基于偏离—份额分析法和ESDA法

以经济增长的变化作为偏离—份额分析空间模型的空间权重,根据偏离—份额分析空间模型计算三次产业在2001—2006年和2007—2012年两个时间段要素度量值的变化,采用ESDA法对甘肃产业结构的空间格局进行实证分析,揭示甘肃产业结构演进过程中的空间分异现象以及产生这一现象的原因。     

集合经验模态分解在长江中下游梅雨变化多尺度分析中的应用

基于长江中下游流域5个梅雨监测站1961~2012年的日数据,利用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法,对研究期内梅雨时间序列进行多尺度的分析,探讨其在不同时间尺度上的振荡模态结构特征。结果表明：近50多年来,长江中下游梅雨变化呈现出显著的年际和年代际尺度振荡特征,在年际尺度上表现出准3 a和6 a的周期变化,而在年代际尺度上显示准13 a和24 a的周期变化;各分量方差〖JP2〗贡献率显示,年际振荡在梅雨长期变化中占据主导地位;自1961年以来,EEMD分解的梅雨长期变化趋势表现出先增加后减少的倒“U”型特征,其中1961~1985年呈上升趋势,1985~2012年呈下降趋势,尤其是在2000年之后的下降趋势最为明显。由此可以看出,EEMD能够有效地揭示梅雨长期序列在不同时间尺度上的变化规律,可用于诊断非线性、非平稳性信号变化的复杂性特征