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2002年我国事故与灾害状况综述 总被引:3,自引:36,他引:3
本对我国2002年的安全生产事故及自然灾害情况进行了总结和评述。包括火灾(城乡火灾、森林火灾、草原火灾)、天气气候特征、农业自然灾害(干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冻害)、海洋灾害(风暴潮、赤潮、海浪)、地质灾害(地震、泥石流、水土流失)等。 相似文献
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自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型,并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟,得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明,集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测,为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。 相似文献
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Aida Mendez Gary R. Sands Berangere Basin Chang‐Xing Jin Paul J. Wotzka 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(2):385-400
ABSTRACT: Surface and subsurface drainage make crop production economically viable in much of southern Minnesota because drainage allows timely field operations and protects field crops from extended periods of flooded soil conditions. However, subsurface drainage has been shown to increase nitrate/nitrogen losses to receiving waters. When engaging in drainage activities, farmers are increasingly being asked to consider, apart from the economic profit, the environmental impact of drainage. The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport model (ADAPT) was used in this study to evaluate the impact of subsurface drainage design on the soil water balance over a two‐year period during which observed drainage discharge data were available. Twelve modeling scenarios incorporated four drainage coefficients (DC), 0.64 cm/d, 0.95 cm/d, 1.27 cm/d, and 1.91 cm/d, and three drain depths, 0.84 m, 1.15 m, and 1.45 m. The baseline condition corresponded to the drainage system specifications at the field site: a drain depth and spacing of 1.45 m and 28 m, respectively (DC of 0.64 cm/d). The results of the two‐year simulation suggested that for a given drainage coefficient, soils with the shallower drains (but equal DC) generally have less subsurface drainage and can produce more runoff (but reduced total discharge) and evapotranspiration. The results also suggested that it may be possible to design for both water/nitrate/nitrogen reduction and crop water needs. 相似文献
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Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management. 相似文献
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Characteristics of organic precursors and their relationship with disinfection by-products 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
The molecular weight distribution and chemical composition of precursors and their relationship with disinfection by-products (DBPs) were investigated. Most of the organic matter responsible for the major DBP precursors in the Pan-Hsin water are small compounds with a molecular weight less than 1 kDa. The hydrophobic acids display the greatest ability to produce DBP. Therefore, effective removal of small molecules or hydrophobic acidic organics prior to disinfection process will significantly reduce the DBP concentration in the finished water. Although the coagulation process is effective in removing large organic precursors and the removal efficiencies of CHCl3 formation potential and organic carbon increase proportionally to the molecular weight of the precursors, the conventional treatment methods have limited efficiency in eliminating small precursors, which have high DBP formation potential. 相似文献
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镉胁迫对莴苣幼苗生长及抗氧化酶系统的影响 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
以笋王一号(Lactucasativa L. sativa var.Angustata Irish.cv Sunwang NO.1)为材料,通过营养液水培试验,研究了不同浓度的Cd胁迫对莴苣幼苗生长和抗氧化酶的影响.试验结果表明:10~100 μmol·L-1Cd2+对幼苗株高、根长、叶面积和叶数的增加具有明显的抑制作用,且随着浓度的增加抑制程度加重,但低浓度的Cd2+(1 μmol·L-1)却产生了一定的促进作用;幼苗根、叶中MDA含量和G-POD、叶中SOD活性随着Cd处理浓度的增加明显增加,但根中的SOD在100 μmol·L-1Cd胁迫下明显低于对照,同时,1 μmol·L-1Cd对根和叶片中的APX和CAT活性有一定的激活效应,以后随着Cd处理浓度的提高表现为抑制效应,且随着Cd浓度的增加抑制效应逐渐增强. 相似文献