模糊事故树在分析氯乙烯单体槽爆炸风险中的应用

在对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故构建事故树的基础上,根据现场设备实际运行状况的统计及依据专家经验所提供的模糊信息,运用模糊事故树理论,引入L-R型模糊数,应用其尖态型隶属函数,对氯乙烯单体槽进行了模糊可靠性分析,求出了氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故的模糊概率可能性分布;并利用结构重要度系数近似值法对其进行结构重要度分析,运用对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法,确立了影响系统的最主要因素,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响

美国特朗普政府宣布退出《巴黎协定》是当前全球气候治理中最受舆论关注的问题,对事态发展趋势的判断和事件影响的评估是最为亟需的。本文系统分析了特朗普政府上任后推行的一系列"去气候化"政策,以及其退出《巴黎协定》的主要动因和可能形式,同时量化评估了这些内政外交的"倒退"对美国实施国家自主贡献目标以及全球气候治理格局的实质影响,并据此提出了中国应对全球气候治理新形势变化的对策和建议。研究表明,特朗普政府"美国优先"的能源政策根植于复兴制造业和加大基础设施投资的经济利益动机,随着特朗普"去气候化"进程持续发酵,诸多气候政策面临存续风险,美国实施国家自主贡献将面临严峻挑战,"倒行政策"将有可能使美国温室气体排放出现反弹。如果不考虑中、高危气候政策,美国2025年温室气体排放也仅能相对2005年下降11.0%—14.9%,距离下降26%—28%的国家自主贡献目标相去甚远。同时,特朗普政府拒绝继续履行向发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务,将有可能导致绿色气候基金拖欠资金总额上升117%,并进一步挫伤全球低碳投资的信心。没有美国的全球气候治理3.0时代将呈现出新的复杂特征,并不可避免地造成减排、资金和领导力缺口的持续扩大,也不排除后续会出现消极的跟随者,整体进程将可能进入一个低潮周期。虽然国际社会对中国引领全球气候治理充满期待,但中国仍应审慎对待,长远谋划应对气候变化的内政外交战略,而不应将"气候举旗"看作是一蹴而就的短期策略,对各种要求中国发挥"领导作用"的说法保持清醒头脑。在今后气候谈判中,美国仍有较大可能会二次"要价",中国作为排放大国的压力依然不容小觑,中美气候关系需要再定位。     

抗生素与LED209对大肠杆菌的联合毒性机制

抗生素是一把双刃剑,在提高医疗水平的同时会促进抗性基因的发展。群体感应抑制剂(quorum sensing inhibitors,QSIs)可有效地避免这一缺陷,有望成为抗生素的替代品而与抗生素有环境共存的可能,但目前尚缺乏它们的联合毒性机制及其相关的环境风险评价研究。本文以大肠杆菌为受试生物,测定了群体感应抑制剂N-苯基-4-(3-苯基硫代脲基)苯磺酰胺(LED209)与5种抗生素的单一和二元联合毒性。结果表明,LED209与5种抗生素的联合毒性作用均表现为拮抗,推测是LED209通过影响鞭毛合成,减弱了抗生素对大肠杆菌的生物有效性;同时通过拆分分子式,发现了拮抗作用可能源于LED209分子式中的含苯基和硫代脲基的L1分子,因此建议未来在LED209药物优化时,应尽可能的保留L1部分的基团,从而保证混合体系的最小环境风险。本研究不仅为联合用药提供依据,而且从环境风险评价角度为抗生素替代品LED209的结构优化提供理论指导。     

Urinary metabolomic profiling in rats exposed to dietary di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) using ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOF-MS)

Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is an omnipresent environmental chemical with widespread nonoccupational human exposure through multiple ways. Although considerable efforts have been invested to investigate mechanisms of DEHP toxicity, the key metabolic biomarkers of DEHP toxicity remain to be identified. The aim of this study was to assess the urinary metabonomics of dietary DEHP in rats using the technique of ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOF-MS). Fourteen female Wistar rats were divided into two groups and given increasing dietary doses of DEHP for 30 consecutive days. The urinary metabolite profile was studied using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) enabled clusters to be clearly separated. Eleven principal urinary metabolites were identified as contributing to the clusters. The clusters in the positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode were xanthurenic acid, kynurenic acid, nonate, N6-methyladenosine, and L-isoleucyl-L-proline. The clusters in the negative ESI mode were hippuric acid, tetrahydrocortisol, citric acid, phenylpropionylglycine, cPA(18:2(9Z, 12Z)/0:0), and LysoPC(14:1(9Z)). The urinary metabonomic changes indicated that exposure to dietary DEHP can affect energy-related metabolism, liver and renal function, fatty acid metabolism, and cause DNA damage in rats. The findings of this study on the urinary metabolites and metabolic pathways of DEHP may form the basis for future studies on the mechanisms of toxicity of this commonly found environmental chemical.     

Multiple copper adsorption and regeneration by zeolite 4A synthesized from bauxite tailings

Copper ions were first adsorbed by zeolite 4A synthesized from bauxite tailings, the desorption of Cu(II) using Na₂EDTA solutions was performed, and the recycling of zeolite 4A in adsorption and desorption was systematically investigated. It was observed that the Cu(II) removal efficiency was directly dependent on the initial pH value. The maximum removal efficiency of Cu(II) was 96.2% with zeolite 4A when the initial pH value was 5.0. Cu(II) was completely absorbed in the first 30 min. It was also observed that the desorption efficiency and zeolite recovery were highly dependent on the initial pH and concentration of Na₂EDTA in the solution. The desorption efficiency and percent of zeolite recovered were 73.6 and 85.9%, respectively, when the Na₂EDTA solution concentration was 0.05 mol L^?1 and the pH value was 8. The recovered zeolites were pure single phase and highly crystalline. After 3 cycles, the removal efficiency of Cu(II) was as high as 78.9%, and the zeolite recovery was 46.9%, indicating that the recovered zeolites have good adsorption capacity and can repeatedly absorb Cu(II).

     

Dechlorination of hexachlorobenzene using lead–iron bimetallic particles

Synthesized lead–iron (Pb/Fe) bimetallic particles were applied to dechlorinate hexachlorobenzene (HCB) under various conditions (e.g. bimetal amount, initial pH value, reaction temperature, and reaction duration). The results showed that adding Pb onto Fe benefited the dechlorination of HCB and the bimetal with 1.4% Pb content performed best. The degradation rate decreased regularly as the initial pH value of the aqueous increased from 1.9 to 11.1 except for pH 7.0 where the fastest dechlorination rate emerged. The dechlorination could be enhanced by increasing the amount of Pb/Fe or the reaction temperature. The dechlorination ratio of HCB within 15 min increased from 24.3% to 81.3% when Pb/Fe amount increased from 0.1 g to 0.8 g. The dechlorination followed pseudo-first-order kinetics, and the dechlorination rate constants were 0.0027, 0.0064, 0.0157, and 0.0321 min^?1 at 25, 50, 70, and 85 °C, respectively, and the activation energy (E_a) of the dechlorination by Pb/Fe was 37.86 kJ mol^?1.     

化学沉淀法强化常规工艺应急去除水中的镉

在常规工艺基础上,通过投加氢氧化钠,实验进行了应急去除重金属镉的研究。实验结果表明,该方法能有效去除饮用水水源的镉,效果稳定,可进行应急处理。对pH、镉初始浓度和混凝剂投加量3个影响因素的灰色关联分析表明,3个因素对镉去除效果影响的大小排序为:滤后水pH>混凝剂投加量>镉初始浓度。在水源镉突发污染时,在原有常规水处理工艺基础上,通过控制滤后水pH可实现对重金属镉的去除,pH的控制值与水源水质有关。     

川西气田地层水回注选井选层研究

根据川西气田的实际情况,对致密砂岩层回注选井选层技术进行研究,初步建立了致密砂岩层回注选井选层技术,优选出川西气田1、2、3号等5个回注井区。目前,注水规模300m3/d,累计注水量达75 698.8m3,节约生产成本约200万元,且有效缓解了高浓度氯离子地层水外排带来的环保压力。现场回注试验表明:致密砂岩层回注高浓度氯离子地层水是可行的,回注选井选层技术具有现场推广应用价值。