In recent 2 years, the incidence of influenza showed a slight upward trend in Guangxi; therefore, some joint actions should be done to help preventing and controlling this disease. The factors analysis of affecting influenza and early prediction of influenza incidence may help policy-making so as to take effective measures to prevent and control influenza. In this study, we used the cross correlation function (CCF) to analyze the effect of climate indicators on influenza incidence, ARIMA and ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables) model methods to do predictive analysis of influenza incidence. The results of CCF analysis showed that climate indicators (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine duration) had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. People need to take good precautions in the days of severe air pollution and keep warm in cold weather to prevent influenza. We found that the ARIMAX (1,0,1)(0,0,1)12 with NO2 model has good predictive performance, which can be used to predict the influenza incidence in Guangxi, and the predicted incidence may be useful in developing early warning systems and providing important evidence for influenza control policy-making and public health intervention.
To examine pesticide mixture toxicity to aqueous organisms, we assessed the single and combined toxicities of thiamethoxam and other four pesticides (chlorpyrifos, beta-cypermethrin, tetraconazole, and azoxystrobin) to the rare minnow (Gobiocypris rarus). Data from 96-h semi-static toxicity assays of various developmental phases (embryonic, larval, juvenile, and adult phases) showed that beta-cypermethrin, chlorpyrifos, and azoxystrobin had the highest toxicities to G. rarus, and their LC50 values ranged from 0.0031 to 0.86 mg a.i. L?1, from 0.016 to 6.38 mg a.i. L?1, and from 0.39 to 1.08 mg a.i. L?1, respectively. Tetraconazole displayed a comparatively high toxicity, and its LC50 values ranged from 3.48 to 16.73 mg a.i. L?1. By contrast, thiamethoxam exhibited the lowest toxic effect with LC50 values ranging from 37.85 to 351.9 mg a.i. L?1. Rare minnow larvae were more sensitive than embryos to all the pesticides tested. Our data showed that a pesticide mixture of thiamethoxam–tetraconazole elicited synergetic toxicity to G. rarus. Moreover, pesticide mixtures containing beta-cypermethrin in combination with chlorpyrifos or tetraconazole also had synergetic toxicities to fish. The majority of pesticides are presumed to have additive toxicity, while our data emphasized that the concurrent existence of some chemicals in the aqueous circumstance could cause synergetic toxic effect, leading to severe loss to the aqueous environments in comparison with their single toxicities. Thence, the synergetic impacts of chemical mixtures should be considered when assessing the ecological risk of chemicals.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In the developing countries, the pace of change—in vital technologies, in scientific research, in economic fundamentals, in the living... 相似文献