A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Integrating the Social Dimension in Remediation Decision‐Making: State of the Practice and Way Forward

Sustainable remediation guidance, frameworks, and case studies have been published at an international level illustrating established sustainability assessment methodologies and successful implementation. Though the terminology and indicators evaluated may differ, one common theme among international organizations and regulatory bodies is more comprehensive and transparent methods are needed to evaluate the social sphere of sustainable remediation. Based on a literature review and stakeholder input, this paper focused on three main areas: (1) status quo of how the social element of sustainable remediation is assessed among various countries and organizations; (2) methodologies to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate societal impacts; and (3) findings from this research, including challenges, obstacles, and a path forward. In conclusion, several existing social impact assessment techniques are readily available for use by the remediation community, including rating and scoring system evaluations, enhanced cost benefit analysis, surveys/interviews, social network analysis, and multicriteria decision analysis. In addition, a list of 10 main social indicator categories were developed: health and safety, economic stimulation, stakeholder collaboration, benefits community at large, alleviate undesirable community impacts, equality issues, value of ecosystem services and natural resources, risk‐based land management and remedial solutions, regional and global societal impacts, and contributions to other policies. Evaluation of the social element of remedial activities is not without challenges and knowledge gaps. Identification of obstacles and gaps during the project planning process is essential to defining sustainability objectives and choosing the appropriate tool and methodology to conduct an assessment. Challenges identified include meaningful stakeholder engagement, risk perception of stakeholders, and trade‐offs among the various triple bottom line dimensions. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Evaluation and ranking of restoration strategies for radioactively contaminated sites.

An international project, whose aim was the development of a transparent and robust method for evaluating and ranking restoration strategies for radioactively contaminated sites (RESTRAT), was carried out under the Fourth Framework of the Nuclear Fission Safety Programme of the EU. The evaluation and ranking procedure used was based on the principles of justification and optimisation for radiation protection. A multi-attribute utility analysis was applied to allow for the inclusion of radiological health effects, economic costs and social factors. Values of these attributes were converted into utility values by applying linear utility functions and weighting factors, derived from scaling constants and expert judgement. The uncertainties and variabilities associated with these utility functions and weighting factors were dealt with by a probabilistic approach which utilised a Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. Potentially relevant restoration techniques were identified and their characteristics determined through a literature review. The methodology developed by this project has been illustrated by application to representative examples of different categories of contaminated sites; a waste disposal site, a uranium tailing site and a contaminated freshwater river.     

LEAD AND CADMIUM ASSOCIATED WITH SALTWATER INTRUSION IN A NEW JERSEY AQUIFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey collected ground-water samples from the upper and middle aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in a 400-square-mile area of New Jersey from 1984 through 1986. Concentrations of lead were greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 50 micrograms per liter in water from 16 of 239 wells. The cencentrations of cadmium were greater than the MCL of 10 micrograms per liter in water from 10 to 241 wells. One-half of the wells that exceeded the lead MCL were in known areas of saltwater intrusion, as were all 10 wells that exceeded the cadmium MCL. The association of elevated concentrations of these metals with elevated concentrations of chloride indicates a mochanism related to saltwater intrusion.     

Economic incentives for TQEM: Are they in your future?

Traditional command-and-control regulations provide few opportunities for total quality environmental management because they usually do not take into account cost and efficiency factors. However, in the past several years both Congress and EPA have shown increasing interest in using incentive-type approaches to regulate the environment. These include taxes, marketable pollution privileges, deposits and refunds, information disclosure provisions, and subsidies. The author details examples of each and discusses how they can effectively complement a quality program.     

Dynamics of fisheries that affect the population growth rate coefficient

Conventional surplus production models indicate that destruction of fish populations by overfishing is difficult, if not impossible, but catastrophic declines in abundance of exploited populations are common. Surplus production models also do not predict large continuing fluctuations in yield, but large fluctuations in yield are common. Conventional surplus production models assume that fisheries do not impact the population's capacity to increase, but changes in age structure or a decrease in age-specific fecundity resulting from fishing can decrease the coefficient of increase. A surplus production model is developed in which fishing reduces the capacity of a population to increase; the model is applied to describe the fluctuations observed in yield of lake herring (Coregonus artedii) from the upper Great Lakes. The fisheries of the Great Lakes were decimated by the combined effects of heavy fishing and a changing environment. For some species, yield increased to high levels and then the fisheries collapsed; for other species, yield and effort fluctuated greatly.     

Improving older driver knowledge and self-awareness through self-assessment: the driving decisions workbook

PURPOSE: This study aims to assess whether the Driving Decisions Workbook, a self-assessment instrument for older drivers, increased self-awareness and general knowledge. This study also assessed perceptions regarding its usefulness, particularly as a tool for facilitating discussions within families of older drivers. A secondary purpose of the study was to determine if problems identified by drivers in the workbook related to problems they had with actual driving. DESIGN AND METHODS: The Driving Decisions Workbook was administered along with a questionnaire and a road test. A convenience sample of 99 licensed drivers aged 65 and above was used. RESULTS: After completing the workbook, about three fourths of the participants reported being more aware of changes that could affect driving. Fourteen percent reported that they had discovered a change in themselves of which they had not been previously aware. All respondents found the workbook to be at least a little useful and thought the workbook could help facilitate family discussions. Workbook responses were positively correlated with overall road test scores. Significant correlations were also noted between the road test and a majority of workbook subsection responses. IMPLICATIONS: This study indicates that the workbook may be a useful first-tier assessment instrument and educational tool for the older driver. It may encourage an older driver to drive more safely and/or to seek clinical assessment, and help in facilitating discussions about driving within their families.     

AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT OF URBAN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical programming model is proposed to determine economically efficient urban water resource allocation and pricing policy by maximizing the sum of the consumer and producer surplus. The optimization of this nonlinear problem is accomplished by the use of linear programming algorithm. The feasibility of using recycled water for municipal purposes is examined in a planning context. The impact of higher water quality discharge standards on pricing and allocation of water is analyzed and the attractiveness of water reuse option is demonstrated.     

Ethical issues associated with prenatal screening using non-invasive prenatal testing for sex chromosome aneuploidy

Prenatal screening for sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) is increasingly available through expanded non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). NIPT for SCAs raises complex ethical issues for clinical providers, prospective parents and future children. This paper discusses the ethical issues that arise around NIPT for SCAs and current guidelines and protocols for management. The first section outlines current practice and the limitations of NIPT for SCAs. It then outlines key guidelines before discussing the ethical issues raised by this use of NIPT. We conclude that while screening for SCAs should be made available for people seeking to use NIPT, its implementation requires careful consideration of what, when and how information is provided to users.