基于决策树的统计预报模型在臭氧浓度时空分布预测中的应用研究

近地面层臭氧是光化学污染的主要污染物之一.臭氧污染不仅严重影响着空气质量并且危害人类健康与动、植物生长.本研究以徐州市为研究区,基于环境监测站连续监测数据分别采用分类回归树(CART)、随机森林(RF)和M5模型树方法建立臭氧浓度统计预报模型,选取1、4、7、10等4个月作为季度代表进行区域臭氧浓度预测的研究.以2015整年逐小时徐州市国控大气监测站实时监测的臭氧浓度(因变量)和气象因子数据(自变量)为训练样本建立臭氧浓度统计预报模型.模型验证结果表明,总体上3种决策树模型能够较好的预测臭氧浓度动态变化特征,月尺度上预测值与观测值相关系数均值为0.68,平均绝对误差和均方根误差均值分别为21.63μg·m~(-3)和27.42μg·m~(-3).在此基础上,基于站点观测所建立臭氧统计预报模型,以WRF模型模拟的气象场作为输入,预报区域网格化臭氧预报值,并发现臭氧浓度空间分布与站点观测特征总体一致性较好.经与观测值进行对比,结果表明两者相关系数均值为0.58,平均绝对误差及均方根误差分别为29.38μg·m~(-3)和37.15μg·m~(-3),预报准确率均高于75%.同时利用周步长观测值与预测值建立的多元线性集合预报回归方程对3种决策树模型的预报值进行修正,在一定程度上提高了预报值的精度.     

Adsorption of VOCs on reduced graphene oxide

A modified Hummer's method was adopted for the synthesis of graphene oxide(GO) and reduced graphene oxide(rGO). It was revealed that the modified method is effective for the production of GO and rGO from graphite. Transmission electron microscopy(TEM) images of GO and rGO showed a sheet-like morphology. Because of the presence of oxygenated functional groups on the carbon surface, the interlayer spacing of the prepared GO was higher than that of rGO. The presence of \OH and C_O groups in the Fourier transform infrared spectra(FTIR) spectrum and G-mode and 2D-mode in Raman spectra confirmed the synthesis of GO and rGO. rGO(292.6 m~2/g) showed higher surface area than that of GO(236.4 m~2/g). The prepared rGO was used as an adsorbent for benzene and toluene(model pollutants of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)) under dynamic adsorption/desorption conditions. rGO showed higher adsorption capacity and breakthrough times than GO. The adsorption capacity of rGO for benzene and toluene was 276.4 and 304.4 mg/g, respectively.Desorption experiments showed that the spent rGO can be successfully regenerated by heating at 150.0°C. Its excellent adsorption/desorption performance for benzene and toluene makes rGO a potential adsorbent for VOC adsorption.     

利用CXTFIT-VZCOMML模型推导基于保护地下水的Sb的土壤环境基准

土壤环境基准是制订土壤质量标准和进行土壤质量评价的重要依据,对保护地下水起着非常重要的作用. 通过柱试验研究了Sb(锑)在北京潮土中的迁移行为,利用嵌套有CXTFIT 2.1程序的STANMOD软件对非平衡两区模型进行计算,获得Sb在潮土中迁移的阻滞因子,同时利用VZCOMML(vadose zone contaminant migration multi-layered model)模型反推保护地下水的Sb的土壤环境基准值. 结果表明:非平衡两区模型可较好地模拟Sb在潮土中的迁移过程(r2>0.97);Sb在潮土中的迁移阻滞因子为5.82,远小于批试验得到的阻滞因子(49.3). 基于GB 5749—2006《生活饮用水卫生标准》中ρ(Sb)的标准限值(0.005 mg/L),推导出基于保护地下水的Sb的土壤环境基准值为0.64 mg/kg,该值比一些国家或地区的土壤基准或标准值(3.1～41 mg/kg)小1～2个数量级,可能是由于Sb在潮土中的阻滞因子或分配系数(K_d)较小、稀释系数较小、地下水或饮用水标准(C_gw)偏低、土壤pH不同所致. 未来应使用多种不同类型且具有代表性的土壤,以获得更准确的、适合我国实际情况的土壤环境基准值. 初步推导出Sb的土壤环境基准值(0.64 mg/kg)可为制订国家相关标准和地下水源保护区污染控制措施提供依据.      

基于风险管控的污染地块修复模式概述

基于风险管控的理念,结合风险产生的3要素(污染源、暴露途径和风险受体),分别介绍了污染地块治理修复的多种可选修复模式。在多层次风险防控的思路下构建污染地块的修复模式,可以为污染地块的安全利用提供多样化的解决方案。     

Characterization of drug and alcohol use among senior drivers fatally injured in U.S. motor vehicle collisions, 2008–2012

Objective: Adults 65 years of age and older comprise the fastest growing demographic in the United States. As substance use is projected to increase in this population, there is concern that more seniors will drive under the influence of impairing drugs. The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the drug and alcohol usage among senior drivers fatally injured (FI) in traffic collisions.

Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System were analyzed from 2008 to 2012. Commonly used classes and specific drugs were explored. Rates of drug use, multiple drugs, concomitant drug and alcohol use, and alcohol use alone were generated using Poisson regression with robust error variance estimation. Rates were compared to a reference population of FI middle-aged drivers (30 to 50 years old) using rate ratios.

Results: Drug use among FI senior drivers occurred in 20.0% of those tested. Among drug-positive FI senior drivers, narcotics and depressants were frequent. The prevalence of testing positive for any drug, multiple drugs, combined drug and alcohol, and alcohol use alone among FI seniors were 47% less (relative risk [RR] = 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47, 0.62), 59% less (RR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.34, 0.51), 87% less (RR = 0.13, 95% CI, 0.09, 0.19), and 77% less (RR = 0.23, 95% CI, 0.19, 0.28), respectively, compared to FI middle-aged drivers.

Conclusions: Though overall drug use is less common among FI senior drivers relative to FI middle-aged drivers, driving under the influence of drugs may be a relevant traffic safety concern in a portion of this population.     

深圳市城市道路地表污染物分析研究

随着城市化发展,城市道路面积广,道路地表污染物是面源污染的重要来源.选择深圳市3种道路类型的12个点位作为研究对象,采用实地调研和真空干采样的方法对地表污染物进行采样分析.分析结果表明,不同道路类型单位面积悬浮物含量差异较小,COD、氨氮、总磷含量差异较大;城市道路清扫保洁水平对地表悬浮物的影响比车流量更大;不同道路类型COD、氨氮、总磷含量的差异主要是与周边环境影响有关;在道路清扫保洁水平接近的情况下,道路周边环境成为影响道路污染程度的主要因素.     

Lambda-cyhalothrin disrupts the up-regulation effect of 17β-estradiol on post-synaptic density 95 protein expression via estrogen receptor α-dependent Akt pathway

Lambda-cyhalothrin(LCT),one of the type II pyrethroids,has been widely used throughout the world.The estrogenic effect of LCT to increase cell proliferation has been well established.However,whether the estrogenic effect of LCT will influence neurodevelopment has not been investigated.In addition,17β-Estradiol(E2)plays a crucial role in neurodevelopment and induces an increase in synaptic proteins.The post-synaptic density 95(PSD95)protein,which is involved in the development of the structure and function of new spines and localized with estrogen receptor α(ERα)at the post-synaptic density(PSD),was detected in our study by using hippocampal neuron cell line HT22.We found that LCT up-regulated PSD95 and ERα expression,estrogen receptor(ER)antagonist ICI182,780 and phosphatidylinositol-4;5-bisphosphate 3-kinase(PI3K)inhibitor LY294,002 blocked this effect.In addition,LCT disrupted the promotion effect of E2 on PSD95.To investigate whether the observed changes are caused by ERα-dependent signaling activation,we next detected the effects of LCT on the ERα-mediated PI3K-Protein kinase B(PKB/Akt)-eukaryotic initiation factor(e IF)4E-binding protein 1(4E-BP1)pathway.There existed an activation of Akt and the downstream factor 4E-BP1 after LCT treatment.In addition,LCT could disrupt the activation effect of E2 on the Akt pathway.However,no changes in c AMP response element-binding protein(CREB)activation and PSD95 messenger ribonucleic acid(m RNA)were observed.Our findings demonstrated that LCT could increase the PSD95 protein level via the ERα-dependent Akt pathway,and LCT might disrupt the up-regulation effect of E2 on PSD95 protein expression via this signaling pathway.     

基于自然正交展开的神经网络长期预报模型

对月降水量的前期500hPa高度场、海温场相关预报因子进行E0F展开，并取其中与预报量相关程度较高的主成分，结合人工神经网络技术，建立了一种新的短期气候预测模型。将这种新的预报模型与同样根据这些预报因子建立的回归预报模型进行了对比分析。结果表明，这种新的短期气候预测模型由于集中了众多预报因子的预报信息，并有效地利用了神经网络方法的非线性映射能力，因此比传统预报方法的预报精度显著提高，并且稳定性好，具有很好的应用前景。     

陶粒在废水除磷中的试验研究

采用粉煤灰、膨润土、粘土、发泡剂为主要原料,与外加添加剂混合,烧结制备应用于环境工程的陶粒。通过静态试验和动态试验考察了陶粒对磷的去除效果,在静态试验中,考察了添加剂的成份、含量以及振荡时间对其除磷效果的影响和对出水pH值的影响,试验结果表明,含钙量越多的陶粒,其对磷的去除率越高,其中只加钙的陶粒对磷的去除率在振荡5h时就达到最高94.86%;而不加添加剂的陶粒对磷的去除效果最差,在振荡5h时仅为15.6%。将不同种陶粒放入pH为6.12的模拟废水中,振荡为0.5 h时,其出水pH值便发生明显的变化,其中含钙陶粒的出水pH变化最大,达到10.77,随着振荡时间的增加,其出水的pH值便不再发生明显的变化。在动态试验中,对含钙陶粒进行动态吸附试验,其泄漏值是60 BV,饱和吸附量为150 BV。     

广西钦州湾近岸海域“十一·五”期间营养盐变化趋势分析及污染控制重点

通过2006年-2010年N、P、Si数据分析广西钦州湾海域N、P、Si的变化趋势、富营养化状况以及限制因子。分析表明:钦州外湾DIN、DIP、SiO3-Si含量呈波浪形变化并有所下降,钦州外湾2006年-2010年均为贫营养,外湾海水水质良好。茅尾海DIN值含量较高,海域受到N的影响。茅尾海2006年-2010年为轻度～中度富营养。茅尾海属于磷中等限制富营养,磷酸盐仅表现为相对不足,仍然有爆发赤潮的危险。控制茅尾海富营养化的关键在于控制磷的入海量。