Health effects of relocation following disaster: a systematic review of the literature

This paper reviews the literature on the effects of post-disaster relocation on physical and mental heath, and develops a conceptual framework to guide future research. Forty articles were selected for full-text review and incorporation into the conceptual framework. Twenty-four articles were reviewed for results and methodology. These overwhelmingly tracked mental health outcomes. Only four (16 per cent) focused on physical health. Eight of ten showed an association between relocation and psychological morbidity. Certain outcomes (such as mortality, injury and cardiovascular disease risk factors) revealed inconsistent results, but these were rarely studied. Despite the frequency of post-disaster relocation and evidence of its effect on psychological morbidity, there is a relative paucity of studies; the few examples in the literature reveal weak study designs, inconsistent results, and inattention to physical health impacts and the challenges facing vulnerable populations. Further research guided by theory is needed to inform emergency preparedness and recovery policy.     

The hunting handicap: costly signaling in human foraging strategies

Humans sometimes forage or distribute the products of foraging in ways that do not maximize individual energetic return rates. As an alternative to hypotheses that rely on reciprocal altruism to counter the costs of inefficiency, we suggest that the cost itself could be recouped through signal benefit. Costly signaling theory predicts that signals can provide fitness benefits when costs are honestly linked to signaler quality, and this information is broadcast to potential mates and competitors. Here, we test some predictions of costly signaling theory against empirical data on human food acquisition and sharing patterns. We show that at least two types of marine foraging, turtle hunting and spearfishing, as practiced among the Meriam (a Melanesian people of Torres Strait, Australia) meet key criteria for costly signaling: signal traits are (1) differentially costly or beneficial in ways that are (2) honestly linked to signaler quality, and (3) designed to effectively broadcast the signal. We conclude that relatively inefficient hunting or sharing choices may be maintained in a population if they serve as costly and reliable signals designed to reveal the signaler's qualities to observers.     

Dietary exposure to technical hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) alters courtship, incubation and parental behaviors in American kestrels (Falco sparverius)

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a high production volume brominated flame retardant that has been detected in the environment and wildlife at increasing concentrations. This study was designed to determine potential effects of dietary exposure to environmentally relevant levels of HBCD on behavior during reproduction in captive American kestrels. Twenty kestrel pairs were exposed to 0.51 μg technical HBCD g⁻¹ kestrel d⁻¹ from 4 weeks prior to pairing until chicks hatched (∼75 d). Ten pairs of controls received the safflower oil vehicle only and were used for comparison. During the courtship period the chitter-calls were reduced in both sexes (p = 0.038) and females performed fewer bonding displays (p = 0.053). Both sexes showed a propensity to be less active than controls during courtship. The reduction in male courtship behavior was correlated with reduced courtship behaviors of females (p ? 0.008) as well as reduced egg mass (p = 0.019). During incubation, nest temperatures of treatment pairs were lower at mid-incubation (p = 0.038). HBCD-exposed males performed fewer key parental behaviors when rearing nestlings, including entering the nest-box, pair-bonding displays and food-retrievals. HBCD-exposed females appeared to compensate for the reduced parental behavior of their mates by performing these same behaviors more frequently than controls (p = 0.004, p = 0.027, p = 0.025, respectively). This study demonstrates that HBCD affects breeding behavior in American kestrels throughout the reproductive season and behavioral alterations were linked to reproductive changes (egg size). This is the first study to report HBCD effects on reproductive behavior in any animal model.     

Evaluating a Canadian regional air quality model using ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and United States

The simulated concentrations from a numerical 3-dimensional regional air quality model (MC2AQ) are compared to those of ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and the United States. The model has oxidant chemistry for both inorganic and organic species and deposition routines driven online by a mesoscale compressible community meteorological model (MC2). A standard emission inventory of anthropogenic, natural and biogenic sources for the year 1990 for 21 atmospheric trace species was used in the simulation. The model was run for July 1999, because of the occurrence of a high ozone episode and the availability of the monitoring data for surface O3, SO2, NO, NO2 and NOx. The comparisons during the episode show that the model performs quite well for predicting concentrations and diurnal variations of the surface ozone. The predictions for other gaseous species show some discrepancies with observations, but they are consistent with the results from other models evaluated in the literature. The uncertainties in the emission inventory for these species might be the main causes of the discrepancies. Further studies are needed to improve the predictability of SO and NOx, especially as the model is developed to include particulate matter formation as a result of these gaseous precursors.     

A Regional Approach to Projecting Land-Use Change and Resulting Ecological Vulnerability

This study explores ecological vulnerability to land-use change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region by spatially extrapolating land and economic development, and overlaying these projections with maps of sensitive ecological resources. As individual extrapolations have a high degree of uncertainty, five methods with different theoretical bases are employed. Confidence in projections is increased for counties targeted by two or more projection methods. A county is considered at risk if it currently supports three or more sensitive resources, and is projected to experience significant growth by the year 2010 by two or more methods. Analysis designated 19 counties and two cities as at risk, highlighting within a large region the priority areas where state and regional efforts would contribute the most to integrating environmental considerations into the process of land development. The study also found that potentially severe ecological effects of future land-use change are not limited to the outskirts of major urban areas. Recreational demands on smaller communities with mountain and coastal resources are also significant, as are initiatives to promote economic development in rural areas of high ecological quality. This approach provides a comprehensive overview of potential regional development, leading to an objective prioritization of high-risk areas. The intent is to inform local planning and decision-making so that regional and cumulative ecological degradation are minimized.     

Behavioral strategies of American kestrels during mate replacement

Summary To determine the influence of mate replacement on the behavior and reproductive success of wild American kestrels (Falco sparverius) we removed 4 female and 16 male members of breeding pairs during incubation in 1983 and 1984. Eight males and 1 female were replaced within a mean time of 43 h. Widowed females that received a replacement spent less time hunting, but incubated and performed aerial displays more frequently than females that did not receive a replacement. After replacement, widowed females continued to incubate the original clutch, yet copulated and performed other courtship behaviors with the incoming male. Overlapping of normal temporally separate behavioral cues may be a female strategy to gain assistance from a replacement mate. However, none of the original clutches was successfully hatched. Of 8 pairs with replacement males, 2 pairs abandoned their territory, two remained on territory but did not renest, and 4 renested within a mean interval of 18 days. The lone female replacement and her mate copulated and performed nest inspections but then abandoned the territory. Incubation behavior was similar between replacement and control pairs; however, replacement males fed more invertebrate prey to nestling and made many more nest visits. All 3 replacement nests that hatched young failed within 8 days.     

Quantifying sediment-associated metal dispersal using Pb isotopes: Application of binary and multivariate mixing models at the catchment-scale

In this study Pb isotope signatures were used to identify the provenance of contaminant metals and establish patterns of downstream sediment dispersal within the River Maritsa catchment, which is impacted by the mining of polymetallic ores. A two-fold modelling approach was undertaken to quantify sediment-associated metal delivery to the Maritsa catchment; employing binary mixing models in tributary systems and a composite fingerprinting and mixing model approach in the wider Maritsa catchment. Composite fingerprints were determined using Pb isotopic and multi-element geochemical data to characterize sediments delivered from tributary catchments. Application of a mixing model allowed a quantification of the percentage contribution of tributary catchments to the sediment load of the River Maritsa. Sediment delivery from tributaries directly affected by mining activity contributes 42-63% to the sediment load of the River Maritsa, with best-fit regression relationships indicating that sediments originating from mining-affected tributaries are being dispersed over 200 km downstream.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.