When evidence is not enough: the challenge of implementing fall prevention strategies

Problem

As the evidence-based movement has advanced in public health, changes in public health practices have lagged far behind creating a science to service gap. For example, science has produced effective falls prevention interventions for older adults. It now is clearer WHAT needs to be done to reduce injury and death related to falls. However, issues have arisen regarding HOW to assure the full and effective uses of evidence-based programs in practice.

Summary

Lessons learned from the science and practice of implementation provide guidance for how to change practices by developing new competencies, how to change organizations to support evidence-based practices, and how to change public health systems to align system functions with desired practices. The combination of practice, organization, and system change likely will produce the public health benefits that are the promise of evidence-based falls prevention interventions.

Impact on public health

For the past several decades, the emphasis has been solely on evidence-based interventions. Public health will benefit from giving equal emphasis to evidence-based implementation.

Impact on Industry

We now have over two decades of research on the effectiveness of fall prevention interventions. The quality of this research is judged by a number of credible international organizations, including the Cochrane Collaboration (http://www.cochrane.org/), the American and British Geriatrics Societies, and the Campbell Collaboration (http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/). These international bodies were formed to ponder and answer questions related to the quality and relevance of research. These developments are a good first step. However, while knowing WHAT to do (an evidence-based intervention) is critical, we also need to know HOW to effectively implement the evidence. Implementation, organization change, and system change methods produce the conditions that allow and support the full and effective use of evidence-based interventions. It is time to focus on utilization of implementation knowledge in public health. Without this focus the vast amount on new evidence being generated on the prevention of falls and related injuries among older adults will have little impact on their health and safety.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.