Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle

Relocation is one of the strategies used by conservationists to deal with problem cheetahs in southern Africa. The success of a relocation event and the factors that influence it within the broader context of long-term viability of wild cheetah metapopulations was the focus of a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling workshop in South Africa. Using a new heuristics, Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), described in this paper, several networks were formulated to distinguish between the unique relocation experiences and conditions in Botswana and South Africa. There were many common underlying factors, despite the disparate relocation strategies and sites in the two countries. The benefit of relocation BNs goes beyond the identification and quantification of the factors influencing the success of relocations and population viability. They equip conservationists with a powerful communication tool in their negotiations with land and livestock owners, which is key to the long-term survival of cheetahs in southern Africa. Importantly, the IBNDC provides the ecological modeller with a methodological process that combines several BN design frameworks to facilitate the development of a BN in a multi-expert and multi-field domain.     

A Web‐Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water‐Quality Conditions and Management Actions1

Booth, Nathaniel L., Eric J. Everman, I‐Lin Kuo, Lori Sprague, and Lorraine Murphy, 2011. A Web‐Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water‐Quality Conditions and Management Actions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1136‐1150. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00573.x Abstract: The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program has completed a number of water‐quality prediction models for nitrogen and phosphorus for the conterminous United States as well as for regional areas of the nation. In addition to estimating water‐quality conditions at unmonitored streams, the calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models can be used to produce estimates of yield, flow‐weighted concentration, or load of constituents in water under various land‐use condition, change, or resource management scenarios. A web‐based decision support infrastructure has been developed to provide access to SPARROW simulation results on stream water‐quality conditions and to offer sophisticated scenario testing capabilities for research and water‐quality planning via a graphical user interface with familiar controls. The SPARROW decision support system (DSS) is delivered through a web browser over an Internet connection, making it widely accessible to the public in a format that allows users to easily display water‐quality conditions and to describe, test, and share modeled scenarios of future conditions. SPARROW models currently supported by the DSS are based on the modified digital versions of the 1:500,000‐scale River Reach File (RF1) and 1:100,000‐scale National Hydrography Dataset (medium‐resolution, NHDPlus) stream networks.     

Environmental impact propagated by cross-system subsidy: chronic stream pollution controls riparian spider populations

Resource subsidies between habitats are common and create the potential for the propagation of environmental impacts across system boundaries. However, recent understanding of the potential for subsidy-mediated cross-system impact propagations is limited and primarily based on passive flows of nutrients and detritus or short-term effects. Here, we assess the effects of sustained alterations in aquatic insect emergence (active subsidy pathway), due to chronic stream pollution, for riparian spiders. The sustained reduction in aquatic insect densities at the polluted reaches resulted in a marked decline in web spider population density and a shift in spider community composition. Our results provide the first evidence that stream pollution can control populations and community structure of terrestrial predators via sustained alterations in aquatic subsidies, emphasizing the role of subtle trophic linkages in the transmission of environmental impacts across ecosystem boundaries.     

Impact on blood Pb levels of maternal and early infant feeding practices of First Nation Cree in the Mushkegowuk Territory of northern Ontario,Canada

Exposure to Pb in-utero and in infancy has been associated with cognitive risk, even at low blood Pb levels of 0.48-0.96 micromol L(-1). Based on the hypothesis that wild game consumed by First Nation women of Mushkegowuk Territory contains Pb that might be transferred through blood or breast-milk to the fetus or infant, the study's objectives were to describe: (1) Pb in maternal and cord blood at birth and infant blood at 4 months, and (2) dietary influence on Pb status. Cord and maternal Pb were 0.10 +/- 0.08 and 0.11 +/- 0.06 micromol L(-1) (x +/- SD), respectively, and were significantly correlated (r = 0.77, p < 0.0001, n = 70), as was infant blood Pb (0.08 +/- 0.05 micromol L(-1)) with matched cord blood (r = 0.65, p < 0.0001, n = 30). Two cord blood samples (3%) were above 0.48 micromol L(-1). Pb in breast-milk at 0.010 +/- 0.008 micromol L(-1) (n = 25), was significantly lower than Pb in commercial formula or evaporated milk-based feedings (range 0.02-0.05 micromol L(-1), p < 0.05), and correlated with matched maternal blood Pb (r = 0.55, p < 0.005). However, in a sub-sample of infants (n = 31), blood Pb was similar for breastfed and formula-fed groups, though above the evaporated milk-fed group (p < 0.05). Maternal consumption of wild fowl, mammals and fish, estimated from the previous year, provided, respectively, 128 +/- 124, 46 +/- 68 and 8 +/- 13 MJ annum(-1). Traditional animal food intake, especially wild fowl, correlated significantly with cord blood Pb (Spearman rank correlation, p = 0.017). Although blood and milk Pb levels were largely within acceptable ranges, the presence of some elevated levels and association between blood Pb and traditional game consumption may reflect the legacy of using lead-containing ammunition.