Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

A salamander’s toxic arsenal: review of skin poison diversity and function in true salamanders,genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salamandra</Emphasis>

Terrestrial salamanders of the genus Salamandra represent one of the most prominent groups of amphibians. They are mainly distributed across Europe but also reach Northern Africa and the Near East. Members of the six currently accepted species have long been known to be poisonous; however, work on their toxins was mostly published in German language, and therefore, many nuances of these studies have remained hidden from the majority of herpetologists and toxinologists. Several Salamandra species are called fire salamanders due to their highly contrasted, black-yellow colouration which probably serves to deter predators, although thorough evidence for aposematism in Salamandra is still lacking. Salamandra skin toxins do not only represent a potent antipredator defence but may also have antimicrobial effects. A better understanding of this dual function of Salamandra skin secretions is of utmost importance in the face of the emergence of a fungal disease causing catastrophic declines of fire salamanders in Central Europe, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans. In this review, we summarize the knowledge on Salamandra toxins, providing a list of the compounds so far isolated from their secretion and focusing on the bioactivity of the major compounds in Salamandra secretions, the steroidal alkaloids. We identify priorities for future research, including a screening of co-occurrence of steroidal alkaloids and tetrodotoxins in salamandrids, chemical characterization of already identified novel steroidal compounds, elucidation of the presence and role of peptides and proteins in the secretion, and experimental in vitro and in vivo study of the interactions between bioactive compounds in Salamandra skin secretions and cutaneous fungal and bacterial pathogens.     

Monitoring of iodinated X-ray contrast media in surface water

A monitoring programme was carried out in order to determine iodinated X-ray contrast media (ICM) in the River Danube and to investigate the raw water quality for drinking water production at Langenau waterworks. The study revealed that the maximum concentrations of ICM (over 500 ng l(-1) for diatrizoic acid and iopamidol) were found in 2h-composite samples taken from the downstream of the Ulm/Neu-Ulm metropolitan area. By means of a concentration profile over one month the highest ICM concentrations were observed on weekdays. The extended data evaluation with principal component analysis shows that the upstream and downstream samples had different pattern of variations in ICM concentration and also demonstrates a clear change in ICM composition by the discharge of municipal wastewater. In addition to load profiles of ICM, time-dependent plots of principal component 1 exhibited peaks, indicating a short-term discharge of ICM between the two sampling sites. In conclusion, a point source for ICM contamination between the sampling sites in Ulm upstream and Leipheim downstream seems to be the reasonable explanation for peak ICM concentrations. Due to the observed high variations of ICM concentrations in river, the evaluation of natural waters by means of a single analysis is not representative.     

Endocrine disruption of water and sediment extracts in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay using isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout

Goal, Scope and Background In order to evaluate the estrogenic activity of sediments and XAD water extracts of selected sites of the catchment area of the River Neckar, a river system in Southern Germany, an integrative assessment approach was used to assess the ecological hazard potential of endocrine-disrupting compounds in sediment and water. Methods The approach is based on estrogen receptor-mediated vitellogenin synthesis induced in isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout and quantified in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay in parallel to comprehensive chemical analyses of estrogenic substances. Results and Discussion Numerous investigated extracts revealed an estrogen activity comparable to that of the positive control (1 nM 17?-estradiol corresponding to 270 ng/L in the test medium). Based on a concentration factor of 30 in the extracts and a recovery of XAD resins of approximately 80 %, 17?-estradiol equivalent concentrations between 20 and 26.7 ng/L could be calculated downstream of a sewage treatment plant (< 0.1 ng/L for a reference site). A comparison of the bioassay-derived Bio-TEQs (toxicity equivalents) and the Chem-TEQs revealed a high correlation with a Pearson coefficient of 0.85, indicating that the same ranking of the samples could be obtained with respect to the endocrine disrupting potential with both chemical and bioanalytical analysis. However, the TEQ concentrations computed from chemical analyses were significantly lower than the bioassay-derived TEQ concentrations. In fact, in none of the samples, more than 14 % of the vitellogenin-inducing potency could be attributed to the substances (steroids, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, diethylstilbestrol) analyzed. A comparison of the endocrine disrupting potential of sediments extracted by the solvents acetone and methanol revealed lower biological effects for acetone-extracted samples. Possible reasons may be a masking of endocrine effects in acetone extracts by cytotoxicity, a low extraction efficiency of the solvent acetone, or anti-estrogen potencies of some extracted sediment compounds. Using a mass balance approach, the contribution of the compounds analyzed chemically (Chem-TEQs) to the total endocrine activity (Bio-TEQs) was calculated. Based on the very low detection limits, particularly of the steroids with their high TEF factors, results revealed that a calculation of the Chem-TEQs is associated with considerable scale inaccuracy: Whereas only 7-15 % of the biological effectiveness (Bio-TEQs) could be explained by endocrine substances identified above the detection limits, the assumption of concentrations slightly below the given detection limits would result in a significant over estimation (137-197 %) of the Bio-TEQs. Even the interassay variation of the dot blot assay with different fish donors for primary hepatocyte (factor 2 - 2.5) is relatively low, when compared to the large range of the Chem-TEQ concentrations (factor 20) obtained when applying different modes of calculation. Conclusions and Outlook Overall, only a minor portion of the endocrine activity detected by bioassays could be linked to compounds identified by chemical analysis. In vitro assays for assessment of endocrine activities are useful as sensitive integrating methods that provide quantitative estimates of the total activity of particular receptor-mediated responses. Although discrepancies may also result from different bioanalytical approaches, it is overall likely that bioanalytical and not chemical analytical approaches give the correct estimate of endocrine disrupting potencies in environmental samples. As a conclusion, assessment of endocrine disruption based on chemical analysis alone does not appear sufficient and further research into the spectrum of substances with potential endocrine activity as well as into additive or even synergistic effects in complex environmental samples is urgently needed.     

Entry and toxicity of organic pesticides and copper in vineyard streams: Erosion rills jeopardise the efficiency of riparian buffer strips

The present study was performed to characterise in-stream pesticide exposure within the Palatinate vineyard region in south-west Germany, evaluate the influence of buffer strip widths and identify mitigation measures for the relevant entry pathways. In-stream water and sediment samples that were taken at nine sampling sites of different buffer widths following intense rainfall, and edge-of-field runoff that were sampled in erosion rills were analysed regarding 28 active ingredients of pesticides including copper. In-stream samples contained a mix of 8 ± 4 pesticide compounds, resulting in total pesticide concentrations of 1.4-8.9 μg l⁻¹ for water and 16-670 μg kg⁻¹ dw for sediment. Following an exceptional rainfall event with a previous 34-day drought period, pesticide concentrations reached 7.0-83.4 μg l⁻¹. Fungicides were the most important pesticides found and were significantly correlated with the pesticide application frequency and rate. The calculated toxicity values per sample (TU_max) indicated that both organic pesticides and copper concentrations likely cause ecotoxicological effects in the field. The buffer strip width was of little importance for pesticide in-stream concentrations because pesticide entry occurred mainly via the field path network and erosion rills. Pesticide in-stream concentrations were significantly and positively correlated with the concentrations detected in erosion rills (R² = 0.56). As possible risk mitigation measures, we suggest the implementation of grassed field paths and vegetated ditches or wetlands.     

新疆煤田火灾的成因、危害及综合治理

新疆是世界上煤田火灾最严重的地区,原因主要是新疆地处欧亚大陆腹地,具典型的大陆性干旱气候;新疆地区煤系为中下侏罗纪,地质活动较为剧烈;小煤窑的乱采滥挖等.新疆煤田火灾带来巨大危害:损失煤炭资源、污染环境、引发地质灾害、破坏生态平衡及危害生物健康等.对煤田火灾进行综合治理已经成为当务之急.为了有效灭火,应先对火区进行探测.探测方法有磁异常探测法、自然电场法和红外地面测温法等.然后因地制宜地选择适当的灭火技术进行灭火.灭火之后还应利用地理信息系统等方法对火区进行动态监测.     

A phenomenological approach shows a high coherence of warming patterns in dimictic aquatic systems across latitude

To predict the coherence in local responses to large-scale climatic forcing among aquatic systems, we developed a generalized approach to compare long-term data of dimictic water bodies based on phenomenologically defined hydrographic events. These climate-sensitive phases (inverse stratification, spring overturn, early thermal stratification, summer stagnation) were classified in a dual code (cold/warm) based on threshold temperatures. Accounting for a latitudinal gradient in seasonal timing of phases derived from gradients in cumulative irradiation (2.2?days per degree latitude), we found a high spatial and temporal coherence in warm–cold patterns for six lakes (84?%) and the Baltic Sea (78?%), even when using the same thresholds for all sites. Similarity to CW-codes for the North Sea still was up to 72?%. The approach allows prediction of phase-specific warming trends and resulting instantaneous or time-delayed ecological responses. Exemplarily, we show that warming during early thermal stratification controls food-web-mediated effects on key species during summer.     

Chemical composition of burnt smell caused by accidental fires: environmental contaminants

The chemical composition of the odors typical of fires has recently been deciphered. Basically the constituents are mixtures of acetophenone, benzyl alcohol, hydroxylated derivatives of benzaldehyde, methoxylated and/or alkylated phenols and naphthalene. This finding makes it possible to develop objective, practical analytic measurement methods for the burnt smell as a contribution to improving fire damage assessment and remediation monitoring. With the aid of an artificially produced burnt smell and a panel of testers the odor detection threshold of a test mixture was determined olfactometrically to 2 μg m⁻³. Using a defined burnt-smell atmosphere in a test chamber, analytical methods with active sampling, the adsorbents XAD 7 and TENAX TA, and GC/MS measurement were then optimized and tested with a view to being able to carry out sensitive quantitative measurement of burnt smells. A further practical method with particular application to the qualitative characterization of this odor is based on the use of a new SPME (solid-phase microextraction) field sampler with DVB/CAR/PDMS (divinylbenzene/Carboxen™/polydimethylsiloxane) fibers.