Uncertainty propagation in vegetation distribution models based on ensemble classifiers

Ensemble learning techniques are increasingly applied for species and vegetation distribution modelling, often resulting in more accurate predictions. At the same time, uncertainty assessment of distribution models is gaining attention. In this study, Random Forests, an ensemble learning technique, is selected for vegetation distribution modelling based on environmental variables. The impact of two important sources of uncertainty, that is the uncertainty on spatial interpolation of environmental variables and the uncertainty on species clustering into vegetation types, is quantified based on sequential Gaussian simulation and pseudo-randomization tests, respectively. An empirical assessment of the uncertainty propagation to the distribution modelling results indicated a gradual decrease in performance with increasing input uncertainty. The test set error ranged from 30.83% to 52.63% and from 30.83% to 83.62%, when the uncertainty ranges on spatial interpolation and on vegetation clustering, respectively, were fully covered. Shannon’s entropy, which is proposed as a measure for uncertainty of ensemble predictions, revealed a similar increasing trend in prediction uncertainty. The implications of these results in an empirical distribution modelling framework are further discussed with respect to monitoring setup, spatial interpolation and species clustering.     

Controlling mechanisms of aluminium in soil solution--an evaluation of 180 podzolic forest soils.

To monitor the level of soil acidification in the county of V?rmland in the middle west of Sweden 180 podzolic forest soils were investigated. Soil solutions from four horizons were obtained by centrifugation and the soil was sampled for a determination of the exchangeable pool by extraction. The concentrations of inorganic Al and its fraction of the total Al in solution were greater in the south of the county (up to 50%). The factors influencing the total Al and free inorganic Al3+ in the soil solutions were evaluated. Saturation indices (SI) for five different mineral phases were calculated but none implied equilibrium conditions. The relationships between pAl3+ and pH (in the pH range 4-6.2) gave slopes of about 1, which indicated that ion exchange/complexation reactions may be important for determining the Al3+ concentration in the B and C horizons. In the E horizon solutions complexation with soluble organic acids seemed to be the major factor which influenced the Al3+ activity. The influence of organic matter on Al solubility was supported by partial least square (PLS) regressions.     

Effect of electrokinetic transport on the vulnerability of PAH-degrading bacteria in a model aquifer

There has been increasing interest in employing electro-bioremediation, a hybrid technology of bioremediation and electrokinetics, to overcome the low bioavailability of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOC) by homogenizing sorption-retarded HOC and immobilised microorganisms. Present electro-remediation approaches mainly aim at macroscale pollutant extraction and tend to neglect possible impacts of direct current (DC) on the physiology of microorganisms. The effect of weak electric fields (X = 1 V cm⁻¹) on the fitness of electrokinetically dispersed fluorene-degrading Sphingomonas sp. LB126 in bench-scale model aquifers was investigated by flow cytometry using propidium iodide (PI) as an indicator that distinguishes between PI-permeable (cells with porous membranes, i.e. dead or vulnerable) and PI-impermeable bacteria. After 15.5 h of DC treatment 56% of all cells recovered were dispersed at the centimetre scale relative to 29% in the absence of DC. There was no overall negative effect of the 15.5-h DC treatment on cell vulnerability, as 7.0% of the DC-treated bacteria exhibited PI-staining compared to 6.5% of the control population. Minor differences were observed in the subpopulation that had been mobilised by electroosmosis with an approximately twofold increase in the percentage of PI-stained cells relative to the control. Enhanced PI staining did not correlate with reduced culturability of the cells on rich-medium agar plates. Relative to the control, DC-treated cells mobilised by electroosmosis were threefold more culturable, confirming earlier data that that PI-cell membrane permeability does not always indicate reduced viability of oligotrophic environmental bacteria. Our findings suggest that electrokinetics is a valuable mechanism to transport viable and culturable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-degrading bacteria in soil or sediments.     

The relationship between diversity profiles,evenness and species richness based on partial ordering

Problems with the notion of evenness, such as ambiguity, proliferation of indices, choice of indices, etc. can be overcome by a more fundamental, mathematical approach. We show that the Lorenz curve is an adequate representation of evenness. The corresponding Lorenz order induces a partial order in the set of equivalent abundance vectors. Also diversity can adequately be studied through a partial order and represented by a curve derived from the classical Lorenz curve. This curve is known as the intrinsic diversity profile (or k-dominance curve) and was introduced by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Lambshead et al. (1981).     

Occurrence of alternative flame retardants in indoor dust from New Zealand: indoor sources and human exposure assessment

Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.     

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi can decrease the uptake of uranium by subterranean clover grown at high levels of uranium in soil

Subterranean clover inoculated or not with the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus Glomus intraradices was grown on soil containing six levels of 238U in the range 0-87 mg kg(-1). Increasing U concentration in soil enhanced the U concentration in roots and shoots of both mycorrhizal and nonmycorrhizal plants but had no significant effects on plant dry matter production or root AM colonization. Mycorrhizas increased the shoot dry matter and P concentration in roots and shoots, while in most cases, it decreased the Ca, Mg and K concentrations in plants. The AM fungus influenced U concentration in plants only in the treatment receiving 87 mg U kg(-1) soil. In this case, U concentration in shoots of nonmycorrhizal plants was 1.7 times that of shoots of mycorrhizal plants. These results suggested that mycorrhizal fungi can limit U accumulation by plants exposed to high levels of U in soil.     

Estimation of uncertainty arising from different soil sampling devices: the use of variogram parameters

In the frame of the international SOILSAMP project, funded and coordinated by the National Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), uncertainties due to field soil sampling were assessed. Three different sampling devices were applied in an agricultural area using the same sampling protocol. Cr, Sc and Zn mass fractions in the collected soil samples were measured by k(0)-instrumental neutron activation analysis (k(0)-INAA). For each element-device combination the experimental variograms were calculated using geostatistical tools. The variogram parameters were used to estimate the standard uncertainty arising from sampling. The sampling component represents the dominant contribution of the measurement uncertainty with a sampling uncertainty to measurement uncertainty ratio ranging between 0.6 and 0.9. The approach based on the use of variogram parameters leads to uncertainty values of the sampling component in agreement with those estimated by replicate sampling approach.     

Removal of PCBs from wastewater using fly ash

Liquids and sludges containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can be treated to concentrate the PCBs in a solid residue. The latter can then be handled to destroy the PCBs. A study on sorption kinetics of PCBs on fly ash was conducted in controlled batch systems. TCB and HeCB are removed at 25 degrees C by adsorption on fly ash up to 97% at pH 7, with an adsorbent dose of 5 g/l. An examination of the thermodynamic parameters shows that the adsorption of TCB and HeCB by fly ash is a process occurring spontaneously at ambient conditions. Activation energies for the sorption process ranged between 5.6 and 49.1 kJ/mol. It was observed that the rate at which TCB and HeCB are adsorbed onto fly ash showed a diffusion limitation. The uptake rate of TCB and HeCB increases with increasing initial concentration and gradually tends to a constant value. A decrease in the adsorption of TCB and HeCB was observed when interfering ions and other PCB congeners were present. Changing the pH in the aqueous solution from 2 to 10 had no effect on the adsorption process. Overall, fly ash can be used for an efficient removal of PCBs from several aqueous solutions.     

Assessing Landscape Condition Relative to Water Resources in the Western United States: A Strategic Approach

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is proposing an ambitious agenda to assess the status of streams and estuaries in a 12-State area of the western United States by the end of 2003. Additionally, EMAP is proposing to access landscape conditions as they relate to stream and estuary conditions across the west. The goal of this landscape project is to develop a landscape model that can be used to identify the relative risks of streams and estuaries to potential declines due to watershed-scale, landscape conditions across the west. To do so, requires an understanding of quantitative relationships between landscape composition and pattern metrics and parameters of stream and estuary conditions. This paper describes a strategic approach for evaluating the degree to which landscape composition and pattern influence stream and estuary condition, and the development and implementation of a spatially-distributed, landscape analysis approach.