Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

Teil III: Die Verkehrsbilanz der Universität Osnabrück

One central aspect of the environmental management system for universities developed in Osnabrück is the environmental audit of universities, realized by an ecobalance. This article deals with modelling the material and energy flows caused by the University’s commuters (staff and students), and by the business trips of employees, using the software Umberto^®. The result is the University’s traffic balance. 10,000 MWh of energy are consumed yearly by the University’s traffic. 94% of the consumption is caused by commuters (1,300 employees and 11,500 students) and only 6% by business trips. Compared with the whole energy consumption of the University, the traffic’s share is 32% and therefore lies between the electricity’s share (25%) and that of heat (43%). Similarly related are the CO₂ emissions, caused by traffic (3,160 tons per anno). Compared with the whole CO₂ emissions of the University the traffic’s share is 31%, thus putting it between the heat’s share (27%) and that of electricity (42%). Although the average weekly distance the University’s commuters drive (79 km/student and 84 km/employer) is at the bottom of the range for other comparable universities, a transportation demand management for a further reduction of the traffic-caused CO₂ emissions should be implemented.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

Sampling for landscape elements—a case study from Lower Saxony,Germany

The estimation of coverage, i.e., the proportion of the total area in a study region covered by a given target class, is essential to many aspects of environmental monitoring. We analyze and compare the efficiency of different sample-based approaches for the estimation of coverage of different land cover classes from aerial imagery in a case study in Lower Saxony, Germany on the basis of the estimated standard errors. A complete delineation of vegetation classes in n?=?279 aerial photo plots of 400 × 400 m thrown onto the study region of 1,117.7 km² in accordance with a systematic grid is compared to different configurations of line intercept sampling and clusters of points. The observation designs under study are characterized by different complexity and total size of the observation units and therefore also to the efforts related to yield a single observation. Especially for those classes that cover a relatively large proportion of the sampling frame, our results show that difference in performance between the different designs are negligible. A cluster of four transects of 200 m each allows estimating the area of land cover classes with high coverage with nearly similar precision as a complete mapping of fixed area plots of 16 ha each. Clusters of points show unexpected high precision for the estimated coverage of land cover classes with relatively high coverage.     

Metals in Zooplankton from the Baltic Sea, 1980-84

Between 1980 and 1984, plankton was collected for metal analysis during four expeditions in the Baltic Sea. for comparison, samples from adjacent areas of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean were also taken. the mixed net-plankton samples were analyzed by AAS for metals (Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu. Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn). the results are discussed with regard to spatial and temporal trends and for comparison with data from other authors. Correlations among the contents of the different metals and between the metal contents and 'external factors' including salinity, season, percentage of co-collected phytoplankton, and concentration of dissolved and particulate metals in the water are considered.

There is a tendency for higher metal contents in plankton from the brackish Baltic Sea (Al, Mn and Hg), while other metals (e.g. Cd) show higher levels in samples taken from the marine environment. Except for mercury, no clear correlations could be found between the metal content in plankton and the dissolved concentration of the same metal in the ambient water. Otherwise, the contents of aluminium, iron, manganese and zinc in the suspended particulate matter and in the plankton seem to be partly related to each other.     

Fostering sustainability through sourcing from small businesses: public sector perspectives

This article examines the opportunities for fostering sustainable development through public sector sourcing from small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Buying from small businesses can make such contributions in a variety of forms, ranging from a contribution to local economic development through providing innovative green products and services, particularly in the food sector, to helping the public sector organisation to better align its operations with its community. Sourcing from small businesses also has implications for the governance of sourcing processes and can benefit from a partnership approach. Barriers to public sector sourcing from small businesses are discussed and suggestions made on how these can be overcome.     

Monitoring nitrogen accumulation in mosses in central European forests

In order to assess whether nitrogen (N) loads in mosses reflect different land uses, 143 sites in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Weser-Ems Region and the Euro Region Nissa were sampled between 2000 and 2005. The data were analysed statistically with available surface information on land use and forest conditions. N bioaccumulation in mosses in the Weser-Ems Region with high densities of agricultural land use and livestock exceeded the concentrations in the more industrialised Euro Region Nissa. In all three study areas agricultural and livestock spatial densities were found to be positively correlated with N bioaccumulation in mosses. In North Rhine-Westphalia, the N concentrations in mosses was also moderately correlated with N concentrations in leaves and needles of forest trees. The moss method proved useful to assess the spatial patterns of N bioaccumulation due to land use.     

A Site-Related Suitability Analysis for the Production of Biomass as a Contribution to Sustainable Regional Land-Use

The use of renewable energy in Europe offers the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and contributes to energy security and independence. With the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and a variety of recently introduced national directives supporting renewable energy sources in the European Union, the economic attractiveness of bioenergy production has distinctly increased. This article combines an economic evaluation of biomass production with site-related natural conditions of the Havelland region, situated in the north-east area of Germany. Two methods for evaluating site-specific potential biomass yields were compared. For three example biomass crops, evaluations of yield estimations at agricultural lots for site-optimized suitability (SOS) and conventional suitability (CS) were carried out. Both modelling approaches were compared. The results of the GIS modelling indicate that the financial support for increasing the use of renewable energy with the German feed-in system, called Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), will possibly lead to an increased cultivation of crops with high biomass output. This monocultural orientation of farming practices and the negative effects on the ecosystem could act in opposition to other environmental initiatives of the EU. The outputs of the SOS analysis show that high biomass production could be integrated into environmental policy proposals. Therefore, new EU policy should take modified subsidies into consideration in order to avoid developing conflicts between small-scale changes in landscape ecosystems caused by large-scale transformations in energy policy.     

Trace Metal Studies on the Starfish Asterias rubens L. From the Western Baltic Sea

In 1984, 115 samples of the starfish Asterias rubens L. collected in the south-eastern part of Cadet Trench (Mecklenburg Bay/Western Baltic Sea) were analyzed for their contents of a few major (calcium, magnesium) and trace elements (cadmium, copper, iron, mercury, manganese, nickel, lead, selenium and zinc). Distinct differences were found between starfish from different stations, and these are attributed to the composition of the sediments acting as a substrate for their prey (mussels, snails). Except for cadmium, the concentrations of the elements studied all correlated negatively with the diameter and weight of the starfish.

Parallel analyses of starfish arms and the central discs of the same animals showed that iron, zinc, copper and mercury levels were 16 to 30% higher, and selenium, manganese, magnesium, calcium and lead were 4 to 9% higher in the arms. Cadmium concentrations were 20% higher in the central discs than in the arms.

Stock estimations (about 52,000 tons fresh weight) show that starfish play a significant role in the benthic ecosystem of the western Baltic Sea. They can consume up to 200,000 tons of mussels and clams (Mytilus edulis, Macoma baltica) a year and may therefore represent a notable factor in the trace metal balance of the region.