Nonstationary, long memory and anti-persistence in several climatological time series data

In this article we examine the stochastic behaviour of several daily datasets describing sun (total irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and sunspot numbers) and various climatological anomaly series by looking at their orders of integration. We use a testing procedure that permits us to consider fractional degrees of integration. The tests are valid under general forms of serial correlation and deterministic trends and do not require estimation of the fractional differencing parameter. Results show that the series are all nonstationary, with increments that might be stationary for those variables affecting sun, and anti-persistent for those affecting air temperatures.     

Hydropower production and river rehabilitation: A case study on an alpine river

Despite the numerous benefits of hydropower production, this renewable energy source can have serious negative consequences on the environment. For example, dams act as barriers for the longitudinal migration of organisms and transport of particulate matter. Accelerated siltation processes in the receiving river reduce the vertical connectivity between river and groundwater. Hydropeaks, caused by short-term changes in hydropower operation, result in a negative impact on both habitat and organisms, especially during winter months when natural discharge is low and almost constant. In this study, we report the current deficits present in the River Rhone from two different scientific perspectives – fish ecology and hydrology. Potential rehabilitation solutions in synergy with flood protection measures are discussed. We focus on the effects of hydropeaking in relation to longitudinal and vertical dimensions and discuss local river widening as a potential rehabilitation tool. The fish fauna in the Rhone is characterized by a highly unnatural structure (low diversity, impaired age distribution). A high correlation between fish biomass and monotonous morphology (poor cover availability) was established. Tracer hydrology provided further details about the reduced permeability of the riverbank, revealing a high degree of siltation with K values of about 4.7 × 10^?6 m s^?1. Improving the hydrologic situation is therefore essential for the successful rehabilitation of the Rhone River. To this end, hydropeaks in the river reaches must be attenuated. This can be realized by a combination of different hard technical and soft operational measures such as retention reservoirs or slower up and down ramping of turbines.     

Study of the relationships between bone lead levels and its variation with time and the cumulative blood lead index, in a repeated bone lead survey

The study aims were to: (i) investigate long term human lead metabolism by measuring the change of lead concentration in the tibia and calcaneus; and (ii) assess whether improved industrial hygiene was resulting in a slow accumulation of lead in an exposed workforce. 109Cd excited K X-ray fluorescence was used to measure tibia lead and calcaneus lead concentrations in 101 workers in a secondary lead smelter. 51 subjects had had similar bone lead measurements 5 years previously. Most of the other subjects had been hired since the first survey. Measurements of whole blood lead were available for the large majority of subjects. Tibia lead concentrations fell significantly (p<0.001) in the 51 subjects with repeated bone lead measurements, from a mean of 39 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) to 33 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1). The change correlated negatively with the initial tibia lead concentration, producing an estimate for an overall half-life of 15 years, with a 95% confidence interval of 9 to 55 years. Adding continuing lead exposure and recirculation of bone lead stores to the regression models produced half-life estimates of 12 and 9 years, respectively, for release of lead from the tibia. The repeat subjects showed no net change in calcaneus lead (64 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) initially, 65 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) 5 years later). Subjects not measured previously had average lead concentrations of 15 microg Pb (g bone mincral)(-1) in the tibia and 13 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) in the calcaneus. The rate of clearance of lead from the tibia (9 to 15 years) is towards the more rapid end of previous estimates. The lack of a significant fall in the calcaneus lead was surprising. Attempts should be made to repeat this observation. If confirmed, it would have implications for models of lead metabolism. The relatively low lead concentrations in the non-repeat subjects are reassuring. However, observation after a longer period of employment would be desirable.     

Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

The characteristics of size distribution of suspended particulates in the air for sulphates and selected metals in different areas and seasons

The characteristics of the distribution of particles by size were investigated for sulphates and selected metals (Pb, Fe, Mn, and Cu) in the air in two urban and an industrial area during the winter and summer periods using an Andersen cascade impactor.In the case of metals, but not sulphates, the character of the area affected the value of mass median diameter. Lowest values were obtained in a sparsely populated urban area, whereas in a densely populated urban area and in the industrial area the values were higher.In the industrial area a high correlation coefficient was found between sulphate and manganese, and between sulphate and lead, as well as a high value of the equivalent Mn²⁺/SO _inf4 ^sup2- ratio for the total sample. It may therefore be assumed that in the industrial area manganese produces a catalytic effect on SO₂ conversion to sulphate. Among the investigated metals lead stands out as a dominant cation which binds to the sulphate ion in the industrial and densely populated areas.     

Dose-time-response functions for toxic chemicals

In many situations, the effect of a toxic chemical on a biological system depends on both the intensity and the duration of exposure. The dependence on the time dimension can be the expression of a range of processes including the physical accumulation of toxic chemicals or their metabolites and the functional accumulation of damage. Measures and functions that have been used to describe this dependence are reviewed.Some of these functions are compared through a case study of the neurotoxicity of methylmercury. Use is made of data that indicates a dependency between the blood concentration at which monkeys were exposed and the length of time before damage was detected. Several exposure functions are fitted to these data and their appropriateness is compared. Using the most appropriate function, an exposure-response relationship is developed using probit analysis. An alternative data analysis procedure is also investigated. The apparent threshold after a 100 day exposure is estimated to be greater by a factor of 3–5 compared to the threshold for chronic exposure. Applying this factor to man, the blood concentration threshold for chronic exposure is estimated to be 40–170 ppb, a finding consistent with recent reports of neurological damage in humans exposed below the generally accepted threshold.     

Problems of correlation of global and local monitoring of air pollution

1. The Air Polluttion Monitoring System has got a significant development of late, which is in direct relation with a considerable extention and improvement of the observation network in cities and industrial areas, with creation of a new network for assessing regional and global background of the atmosphere pollution, as well as with the wide involvement of meteorologists to monitoring organization.
2. While developing a new global monitoring system, it is necessary to take into account its relationship with the local monitoring within the region of air pollution sources, i.e. at the \lsimpact\rs level. The need in such an account is dictated first of all by the physics of pollutant spreading that states: changes in air pollution over large territories must be in a certain agreement with greater changes in the vicinity of emission sources. Methods applied in the global and local monitoring have also a number of common peculiarities. White organizing regional network for observations of the background pollution of the atmosphere twin stations (one of the pair of stations located outside the city boundaries in a small community, and the other, in the nearest city with the population of 200–400 thousand inhabitants) were established in the U.S.S.R. and in a number of socialist countries in Europe.
3. Implementation of the twin-station principles in the U.S.S.R. has contributed to data interpretation and representativity assessment as well as to correction of the station location. Observation results from the Soviet background stations and those abroad have been compared by now according to a number of indices.
4. The correlation of monitoring systems of various scales tells positively both on mutual improvement and completion of observational methods. The methods of obtaining integral characteristics of air pollution were used for the global monitoring, in particular spectral actinometric observations and chemical analysis of the precipitation composition. Now they find still wider employment. Thus methods of spectral actinometric measurements and data processing were used to estimate the degree of aerosol pollution of a number of industrial centres. The theory of solar radiation spreading and aerosol contents determination in urban atmosphere has also been developed. It is a generalization of an earlier developed theory, used to estimate global atmosphere pollution basing on actinometric data. The organization of precipitation collection and analysis on a network of stations around Leningrad and in Donbass area enables us to compare the admixture content in precipitations falling in industrial and agricultural areas.
5. A considerable increase of possibilities to measure microconcentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and of a number of other pollutants is connected with the use of solid solvents for sampling. Their use will allow to avoid establishment of special laboratories at background stations and only send samples by post for their analysis in centralized laboratories.

They will also allow to considerably increase precision and accuracy of measurements. The international comparisons of methods of air pollution measurements on the background level allow to judge about the effiency of these methods.     

The eolian sand problems arising from desertification

Eolian (wind blown) sand constitutes a very serious problem to development in sandy desert lands and causes equally serious problems in lands that are undergoing desertification. In this paper, eolian sand movement due to bulk movement such as sand dune and ripple movement, sand drift by saltation, and sand storms by strong winds are discussed. Associated problems such as eolian sand encroachment on highways, farms, communities and industrial complexes are also discussed and workable solutions are offered. Solutions include chemical stabilization of the surface grains, fences to trap the blown sand and vegetation to prevent soil deflation. Vegetation is emphasized and recommended as the ultimate viable solution to combat desertification and eolian sand problems.