Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES): Air Quality and Daily Mortality Statistical Modeling— Interim Results

ABSTRACT

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES) is an EPRI-sponsored project to collect air quality and meteorological data at a single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA. Seventy high-resolution air quality indicators (AQIs) are used to examine statistical relationships between air quality and health outcome end points. Contemporaneous mortality data are collected for Fulton and DeKalb counties in Georgia. Currently, 12 months of air quality and weather data are available for analysis, from August 1998 through July 1999.

The interim mortality analysis used Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAMs). The estimated log-linear association of mortality with various AQIs was adjusted for smoothed functions of time and meteorological data. The analysis considered daily deaths due to all nonaccidental causes, deaths to persons 65 years or older, and deaths in each of the two constituent counties. The fine particle effect associated with the four mortality subgroups, using only today (lag 0), yesterday (lag 1), 2-day average (average of today and yesterday), and first difference (today minus yesterday) measurements of the air quality relative to today's number of deaths was positive for lag 0, lag 1, and 2-day average and positive only for decedents at least 65 years of age using first difference. The t values ranged from 0.81 to 1.15 for lag 0, 1.04 to 1.53 for lag 1, 1.10 to 1.66 for 2-day average, and -0.32 to 0.33 for first difference with 346 or 347 days of data. No statistically significant estimate of the linear coefficient was found for the other 14 air quality variables in our interim analysis for the four mortality subgroups. We discuss diagnostics to support these models.

These interim analyses did not include an evaluation of sensitivity to a larger set of lag structures, nonlinear model specifications, multipollutant analyses, alternative weather model and smoothing model specifications, air pollution imputation schemes, or cause-specific mortality indicators, nor did they include a full reporting of model selection or goodness-of-fit indicators. No conclusion can be drawn at this time about whether the findings from subsequent studies have sufficiently greater power to detect effects comparable to those found in other U.S. cities including at least 2 or 3 years of data.     

Gel barrier formation in unsaturated porous media

The gel barrier formation by a gelling liquid (Colloidal Silica) injection in an unsaturated porous medium is investigated by developing a mathematical model and conducting numerical simulations. Gelation process is initiated by adding electrolytes such as NaCl, and the gel phase consisting of cross-linked colloidal silica particles grows as the gelation process proceeds. The mathematical model describing the transport and gelation of Colloidal Silica (CS) is based on coupled mass balance equations for the gel mixture (the sol phase plus the gel phase), gel phase (cross-linked colloidal silica particles plus water captured between cross-linked particles), and colloidal silica particles (discrete and cross-linked) and NaCl in the sol (suspension of discrete colloidal silica particles in water) and gel phases. The solutions in terms of volumetric fraction of the gel phase yield the gel mixture viscosity via the dependency on the volumetric fraction of gel phase. This dependency is determined from a kinetic gelation model with time-normalized viscosity curves. The proposed model is verified by comparing experimentally and numerically determined hydraulic conductivities of gel-treated soil columns at different CS injection volumes. The numerical experiments indicate that an impermeable gel layer is formed within the time period twice the gel-point in a one-dimensional flow system. At the same normalized time corresponding to twice the gel-point, the CS solutions with lower NaCl concentrations result in further migration and poor performance in plugging the pore space. The viscosity computation proposed in this study is compared with another method available in the literature. It is observed that the other method estimates the viscosity at the mixing zone higher than the one proposed by the authors. The proposed model can simulate realistic injection scenarios with various combinations of operating parameters such as NaCl concentration and NaCl mixing time, and thus providing guidelines in performing this technology on site.     

Comparative study of the suitability of three lichen species to trace-element air monitoring

To investigate the suitability of three lichen species (Cetraria islandica, Evernia prunastri, and Ramalina farinacea) as transplants to trace-element air biomonitoring, they were exposed on substratum-free supports, from July 1996 until July 1997, in three European countries with different climates (Germany, Italy, Romania), at six sites with different types of air pollutants (two in each country). After 2, 4, 6, and 12 months of exposure, some portions of thallus were collected, prepared, and measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) at the Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering in Bucharest and by energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis (EDXRFA) at the University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart. Fifteen environmentally relevant elements: As, Br, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mn, Ni, Pb, S, Sb, V, and Zn were determined. The analytical results were compared statistically. To study the distribution of the trace-elements between the lichens and the lichen throughfall water inside a virtual column, the throughfall water was collected under the lichen transplants during 6 and 12 months. The dried residues were analysed by INAA at Bucharest. The accumulating capacity for all investigated species is evident. For a comparative evaluation, the initial element contents, the "accumulation factors" relative to the bulk deposition, the interspecies "calibration factors", and the "retention efficiencies", defined as ratios of the lichen enrichment to the sum of this enrichment and the content in the lichen throughfall water, were considered. These criteria attest the best suitability for Evernia prunastri, followed by Ramalina farinacea and Cetraria islandica.     

Decolourization of synthetic dyes by Trametes hirsuta in expanded-bed reactors

The present paper studies the decolourization of different synthetic dyes (Indigo Carmine, Bromophenol Blue, Methyl Orange and Poly R-478) by the white-rot fungus Trametes hirsuta at bioreactor scale under solid-state conditions, operating with ground orange peelings as a support-substrate. Dye decolourization was performed in both batch and continuous mode. Batch cultivation led to high decolourization percentages in a short time (100% for Indigo Carmine in 3h and 85% for Bromophenol Blue in 7 h). As for continuous cultivation, different hydraulic retention times (HRT) were studied (0.8, 1, 1.5 and 3d). The highest decolourization percentages were obtained operating at a HRT of 3d, especially for the dyes Methyl Orange and Poly R-478 (81.4% and 46.9%, respectively). This is a very interesting result, since there are few studies dealing with the continuous decolourization of dyes at bioreactor scale by fungal laccases.     

Probabilistic study of well capture zones distribution at the Lauswiesen field site

The delineation of well capture zones is of utmost environmental and engineering relevance as pumping wells are commonly used both for drinking water supply needs, where protection zones have to be defined, and for investigation and remediation of contaminated aquifers. We analyze the probabilistic nature of well capture zones within the well field located at the "Lauswiesen" experimental site. The test site is part of an alluvial heterogeneous aquifer located in the Neckar river valley, close to the city of Tübingen in South-West Germany. We explore the effect of different conceptual models of the structure of aquifer heterogeneities on the delineation of three-dimensional probabilistic well catchment and time-related capture zones, in the presence of migration of conservative solutes. The aquifer is modeled as a three-dimensional, doubly stochastic composite medium, where distributions of geo-materials and hydraulic properties are uncertain. We study the relative importance of uncertain facies geometry and uncertain hydraulic conductivity and porosity on predictions of catchment and solute time of travel to the pumping well by focusing on cases in which (1) the facies distribution is random, but the hydraulic properties of each material are fixed, and (2) both facies geometry and material properties vary stochastically. The problem is tackled within a conditional numerical Monte Carlo framework. Results are provided in terms of probabilistic demarcations of the three-dimensional well catchment and time-related capture zones. Our findings suggest that the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the location of the outer boundary of well catchment at the "Lauswiesen" site is significantly affected by the conceptual model adopted to incorporate the heterogeneous nature of the aquifer domain in a predictive framework. Taking into account randomness of both lithofacies distribution and materials hydraulic conductivity allows recognizing the existence of preferential flow paths that influence the extent of the well catchment and the solute travel time distribution at the site.     

A comparison of two techniques for studying sediment desorption kinetics of hydrophobic pollutants

A comparison of two techniques (gaseous purge and vial desorption) for studying the kinetics of desorption of hydrophobic pollutants from natural sediments was conducted using identical, pre-equilibrated pollutant-sediment suspensions. Desorption profiles for the two techniques [for Lindane, Aldrin, 2,2'-dichlorobiphenyl (2,2'-DCB), 4,4'-dichlorobiphenyl (4,4'-DCB), and 2,2',6,6'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (TCB)] were then compared, based on the distribution of pollutant mass between the labile (fast) and non-labile (slow) desorption phases and the release rate constants for each phase of release. The vial desorption technique shows many practical advantages over the gaseous purge technique, including its more realistic mixing conditions, the use of an independent sample for each data point (as opposed to a calculation of a cumulative mass purged at each time point), the fact that the vials constitute a closed system and are therefore less subject to ambient contamination, and the relatively low demands of time and money for the vial technique. No consistent trends in labile rate constants or in pollutant distribution between the labile and non-labile phase were observed between the two techniques. A comparison of kinetic parameters shows much faster non-labile rate constants for the gaseous purge technique, attributed to the violent, continuous agitation employed, which likely disrupted sediment aggregates and oxidized the natural organic matter associated with the sediment. Non-labile rate constants have implications for the long-term fate of compounds adsorbed to repetitively disturbed sediments. This study suggests that the traditionally less popular vial desorption technique may yield more realistic non-labile desorption rate constants.     

Effects of mercury on visible/near-infrared reflectance spectra of mustard spinach plants (Brassica rapa P.)

Mustard spinach plants were grown in mercury-spiked and contaminated soils collected in the field under controlled laboratory conditions over a full growth cycle to test if vegetation grown in these soils has discernible characteristics in visible/near-infrared (VNIR) spectra. Foliar Hg concentrations (0.174-3.993ppm) of the Mustard spinach plants were positively correlated with Hg concentration of soils and varied throughout the growing season. Equations relating foliar Hg concentration to spectral reflectance, its first derivative, and selected vegetation indices were generated using stepwise multiple linear regression. Significant correlations are found for limited wavelengths for specific treatments and dates. Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) and Red Edge Position (REP) values of plants in Hg-spiked and field-contaminated soils are significantly lower relative to control plants during the early and middle portions of the growth cycle which may be related to lower chlorophyll abundance or functioning in Hg-contaminated plants.