Comparison of Two Types of Metapopulation Models in Real and Artificial Landscapes

Abstract: Application of metapopulation models is becoming increasingly widespread in the conservation of species in fragmented landscapes. We provide one of the first detailed comparisons of two of the most common modeling techniques, incidence function models and stage-based matrix models, and test their accuracy in predicting patch occupancy for a real metapopulation. We measured patch occupancies and demographic rates for regional populations of the Florida scrub lizard (   Sceloporus woodi ) and compared the observed occupancies with those predicted by each model. Both modeling strategies predicted patch occupancies with good accuracy ( 77–80%) and gave similar results when we compared hypothetical management scenarios involving removal of key habitat patches and degradation of habitat quality. To compare the two modeling approaches over a broader set of conditions, we simulated metapopulation dynamics for 150 artificial landscapes composed of equal-sized patches (2–1024 ha) spaced at equal distances (50–750 m). Differences in predicted patch occupancy were small to moderate (<20%) for about 74% of all simulations, but 22% of the landscapes had differences openface> 50%. Incidence function models and stage-based matrix models differ in their approaches, assumptions, and requirements for empirical data, and our findings provide evidence that the two models can produce different results. We encourage researchers to use both techniques and further examine potential differences in model output. The feasibility of obtaining data for population modeling varies widely among species and limits the modeling approaches appropriate for each species. Understanding different modeling approaches will become increasingly important as conservation programs undertake the challenge of managing for multiple species in a landscape context.     

Extended alloparental care in the almost solitary bee Exoneurella eremophila (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

The possibility of extending brood care via the overlapping presence of relatively short lived adults could generate advantages that may have been among the selective forces at the origin of eusociality. In this paper we provide evidence for extended brood care through sib-rearing in the arid-zone allodapine bee, Exoneurella eremophila. Solitary females of the overwintered generation generally die before all their offspring have become independent. In a relatively high proportion of nests, a newly eclosed female invests in her siblings while producing her own offspring in the maternal nest. The sex ratio of the first offspring produced by the overwintered female is highly female biased, but the overall sex ratio of the brood is unbiased. This finding supports the prediction of Bull's 'insurance by protogyny' model of a female bias in the first-produced offspring as a strategy by the mother to ensure extended brood care.     

Pastoralists in a changing environment: The competition for grazing land in and around the W Biosphere Reserve,Benin Republic

Pastoralists face increasing competition for land with crop farmers and nature in and around the W Biosphere Reserve (WBR) in Benin. Our aim was to describe and analyse land use changes in order to understand their drivers, and to describe and analyse the viewpoints of relevant stakeholders in order to understand the competition for land. To this end, remote sensing data, regional statistics, and survey data were collected. We found that crop land expansion around the WBR was the direct driver of decrease of the grazing land area. Population growth and rising demand for food crops, and government support to the cotton sector were indirect drivers of grazing land reduction. Furthermore, competing claims on land among users arose from the complex interaction of crop expansion, presence of WBR and the way it is governed, the lack of support to pastoralists, and the increasing shift of pastoralists’ lifestyle into one of settled crop farmers. Pastoralism is under threat and its survival depends on the successful implementation of policies to support pastoralists and protect grazing lands.     

Migration of acidic groundwater seepage from uranium-tailings impoundments, 2. Geochemical behavior of radionuclides in groundwater

In this second paper of a series on groundwater seepage from uranium tailings, the general geochemical behavior of radionuclides is described and then applied to data from the field site, Seepage Area A of the Nordic Main impoundment near Elliot Lake, Ontario. The delineation of radionuclide behavior requires (1) the calculation of total element concentration by the summation of concentrations of each element's isotopes (the isotopic concentrations are calculated from the isotopes' radioactivities), (2) the evaluation of solid-liquid interactions using total element concentrations, and (3), for particular isotopes, the evaluation of the extent to which parental geochemical behavior causes a deviation in the isotope's behavior from that of its total element. A computerized speciation program, WATRAD, is used to evaluate aqueous complexation and mineral saturation indices of radium, actinium, thorium, and uranium. Data from Seepage Area A on isotopes of these four elements plus ²¹⁰Pb show that the geochemical behavior of radionuclides can be best defined on an individual isotopic basis rather than on an elemental basis.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Goose management schemes to resolve conflicts with agriculture: Theory,practice and effects

In 2012, the four countries hosting the Svalbard population of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus along its flyway launched an International Species Management Plan for the population. One of the aims was to reduce conflicts between geese and agriculture to an acceptable level. Since 2006, Norway has offered subsidies to farmers that provide refuge areas for geese on their land. We evaluate the mid-Norwegian goose management subsidy scheme, with a view to its adjustment to prevailing ecological and socio-economic parameters. The analysis indicates that the legitimacy of the scheme is highly dependent on transparency of knowledge management and accountability of management scheme to the farming community. Among farmers, as well as front-line officials, outcomes of prioritisation processes within the scheme are judged unfair when there is an evident mismatch between payments and genuine damage. We suggest how the scheme can be made more fair and responsive to ecological changes, within a framework of adaptive management.     

Scaring as a tool to alleviate crop damage by geese: Revealing differences between farmers’ perceptions and the scale of the problem

Expanding populations of farmland foraging geese are causing escalating conflict with agriculture. We used questionnaires to investigate farmers´ perceptions in mid-Norway of spring staging geese and the extent to which they attempt to reduce pasture damage by goose scaring. We predicted farmers’ scaring effort (a measure of dissatisfaction) to increase on fields closer to goose roosting sites where goose grazing intensity was highest (measured by dropping counts). Results showed no such relationship, suggesting that farmers’ perception of goose use was not linked to actual goose use, but influenced by sociological factors and individual opinion. These results confirm the need to distribute subsidies/compensation to affected farmers based upon quantifiable measures of goose use rather than complaint levels. To avoid further conflict escalation, it is equally important that managers are aware of farmers´ perceptions and their causes, to effectively target communication about policies and measures to mitigate goose–agriculture problems.     

Elemental mobility in sulfidic mine tailings reclaimed with paper mill by-products as sealing materials

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Sealing layers made of two alkaline paper mill by-products, fly ash and green liquor dregs, were placed on top of 50-year-old sulfide-containing...     

Renewable energy sources: conflicts and opportunities in a changing landscape

Regional Environmental Change - Replacement of conventional energy sources with renewables such as solar panels and wind turbines requires adequate land. Impact assessments should be conducted to...     

Overview of surface measurements and spatial characterization of submicrometer particulate matter during the DISCOVER-AQ 2013 campaign in Houston,TX

The sources of submicrometer particulate matter (PM₁) remain poorly characterized in the industrialized city of Houston, TX. A mobile sampling approach was used to characterize PM₁ composition and concentration across Houston based on high-time-resolution measurements of nonrefractory PM₁ and trace gases during the DISCOVER-AQ Texas 2013 campaign. Two pollution zones with marked differences in PM₁ levels, character, and dynamics were established based on cluster analysis of organic aerosol mass loadings sampled at 16 sites. The highest PM₁ mass concentrations (average 11.6 ± 5.7 µg/m³) were observed to the northwest of Houston (zone 1), dominated by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass likely driven by nighttime biogenic organonitrate formation. Zone 2, an industrial/urban area south/east of Houston, exhibited lower concentrations of PM₁ (average 4.4 ± 3.3 µg/m³), significant organic aerosol (OA) aging, and evidence of primary sulfate emissions. Diurnal patterns and backward-trajectory analyses enable the classification of airmass clusters characterized by distinct PM sources: biogenic SOA, photochemical aged SOA, and primary sulfate emissions from the Houston Ship Channel. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicates that secondary biogenic organonitrates primarily related with monoterpenes are predominant in zone 1 (accounting for 34% of the variability in the data set). The relevance of photochemical processes and industrial and traffic emission sources in zone 2 also is highlighted by PCA, which identifies three factors related with these processes/sources (~50% of the aerosol/trace gas concentration variability). PCA reveals a relatively minor contribution of isoprene to SOA formation in zone 1 and the absence of isoprene-derived aerosol in zone 2. The relevance of industrial amine emissions and the likely contribution of chloride-displaced sea salt aerosol to the observed variability in pollution levels in zone 2 also are captured by PCA.

Implications: This article describes an urban-scale mobile study to characterize spatial variations in submicrometer particulate matter (PM₁) in greater Houston. The data set indicates substantial spatial variations in PM₁ sources/chemistry and elucidates the importance of photochemistry and nighttime oxidant chemistry in producing secondary PM₁. These results emphasize the potential benefits of effective control strategies throughout the region, not only to reduce primary emissions of PM₁ from automobiles and industry but also to reduce the emissions of important secondary PM₁ precursors, including sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and volatile organic compounds. Such efforts also could aid in efforts to reduce mixing ratios of ozone.