Seat belt use and fit among drivers aged 75 years and older in their own vehicles

Objective: This article aims to describe seat belt wearing patterns and quality of seat belt fit among drivers aged 75 years and older. A secondary aim is to explore associations between body shape, comfort, and seat belt use patterns.

Methods: This is an observation and survey study of a cohort of 380 drivers aged 75 years and over. During home visits, photographs were taken of the drivers in their vehicles for later analysis of belt fit and a short survey was also administered to collect demographic data and information about seat belt use and comfort. Seat belt fit and use of belt and seat accessories were analyzed from the photographs.

Results: Data from 367 participants with photographs were analyzed. Whereas 97% reported using a seat belt and 90% reported their seat belt to be comfortable, 21% reported repositioning their seat belt to improve comfort. Good sash and lap belt fit were achieved in 53 and 59% of participants, respectively, but only 35% achieved overall good fit. Both poor sash and lap belt fit were observed in 23% of participants. Drivers who were in the obese category had over twice the odds (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–4.1) of having a poor lap belt fit than those in the normal body mass index [BMI] range, and drivers who were overweight had 1.8 times the odds (95% CI, 1.1–2.9) of having poor lap belt fit. Older females also had twice the odds (95% CI, 1.3–3.5) of poor lap belt fit compared to older males, regardless of BMI. Sash belt fit did not vary significantly by BMI, stature, or gender. However older drivers who reported that they had not made any adjustments to the D-ring height had 1.7 times the odds of having poor sash belt fit than those who made adjustments (1.2–2.9). Females were 7.3 times more likely to report comfort problems than males (95% CI, 3.2, 16.3) but there was no association between reported comfort and BMI or seat belt fit. Drivers who reported comfort problems had 6 times the odds (3.2–13.6) of also reporting active repositioning of the belt.

Conclusions: The results suggest that older drivers face challenges in achieving comfortable and correct seat belt fit. This may have a negative impact on crash protection. Belt fit problems appear to be associated with body shape, particularly high BMI and gender. There is a need for further investigation of comfort accessories; in the interim, older drivers and occupants should be encouraged to use features such as D-ring adjusters to improve sash belt fit.     

Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples

Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation of pesticide intakes for a defined demographic community, and (2) comparison of dietary pesticide intakes between the composite and individual samples. Extant databases were useful for assigning individual samples to composites, but they could not provide the breadth of information needed to facilitate measurable levels in every composite. Composite sample measurements were found to be good predictors of pyrethroid pesticide levels in their individual sample constituents where sufficient measurements are available above the method detection limit. Statistical inference shows little evidence of differences between individual and composite measurements and suggests that regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples may provide an effective tool for estimating dietary pesticide intake for a defined population.     

Modelling carbon storage in highly fragmented and human-dominated landscapes: Linking land-cover patterns and ecosystem models

To extend coupled human–environment systems research and include the ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change and policy scenarios, we present an analysis of the effects of forest patch size and shape and landscape pattern on carbon storage estimated by BIOME-BGC. We evaluate the effects of including within-patch and landscape-scale heterogeneity in air temperature on carbon estimates using two modelling experiments. In the first, we combine fieldwork, spatial analysis, and BIOME-BGC at a 15-m resolution to estimate carbon storage in the highly fragmented and human-dominated landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. In the second, we perform the same analysis on 12 hypothetical landscapes that differ only in their degree of fragmentation. For each experiment we conduct four air-temperature treatments, three guided by field-based data and one empirically informed by local National Weather Service station data. The three field data sets were measured (1) exterior to a forest patch, (2) from the patch edge inward to 60 m on east-, south-, and west-facing aspects, separately, and (3) interior to that forest patch. Our field-data analysis revealed a decrease in maximum air temperature from the forest patch edge to a depth of 80 m. Within-patch air-temperature values were significantly different (α = 0.01) among transects (c.v. = 13.28) and for all measurement locations (c.v. = 30.58). Results from the first experiment showed that the interior treatment underestimated carbon storage by ～8000 Mg C and the exterior treatment overestimated carbon storage by 30,000 Mg C within Dundee Township, Southeastern Michigan, when compared to a treatment that included within-patch heterogeneity. In the second experiment we found a logarithmic increase in carbon storage with increasing fragmentation (r² = 0.91). While a number of other processes (e.g. altered disturbance frequency or severity) remain to be included in future experiments, this combined field and modelling study clearly demonstrated that the inclusion of within-patch and landscape heterogeneity, and landscape fragmentation, each have a strong effect on forest carbon cycling and storage as simulated by a widely used ecosystem process model.     

MACROSCALE HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT STUDIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UMTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A macroscale hydrologic model is developed for regional climate assessment studies under way in the southeastern United States. The hydrologic modeling strategy is developed to optimize spatial representation of basin characteristics while maximizing computational efficiency. The model employs the “grouped response unit” methodology, which follows the natural drainage pattern of the area. First order streams are delineated and their surface characteristics are tested so that areas with statistically similar characteristics can be combined into larger computational zones for modeling purposes. Hydrologic response units (HRU) are identified within the modeling units and a simple three‐layer water balance model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is executed for each HRU. The runoff values are then convoluted using a triangular unit hydrograph and routed by Muskingum‐Cunge method. The methodology is shown to produce accurate results relative to other studies, when compared to observations. The model is used to evaluate the potential error in hydrologic assessments when using GCM predictions as climatic input in a rainfall‐runoff dominated environment. In such areas, the results from this study, although limited in temporal and spatial scope, appear to imply that use of GCM climate predictions in short term quantitative analyses studies in rainfall‐runoff dominated environments should proceed with caution.     

RIPARIAN ZONE CLASSIFICATION FOR MANAGEMENT OF STREAM WATER QUALITY AND ECOSYSTEM HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: Riparian zones perform a variety of biophysical functions that can be managed to reduce the effects of land use on instream habitat and water quality. However, the functions and human uses of riparian zones vary with biophysical factors such as landform, vegetation, and position along the stream continuum. These variations mean that “one size fits all” approaches to riparian management can be ineffective for reducing land use impacts. Thus riparian management planning at the watershed scale requires a framework that can consider spatial differences in riparian functions and human uses We describe a pilot riparian zone classification developed to provide such a framework for riparian management in two diverse river systems in the Waikato region of New Zealand. Ten classes of riparian zones were identified that differed sufficiently in their biophysical features to require different management. Generic “first steps” and “best practical” riparian management recommendations and associated costs were developed for each riparian class. The classification aims to not only improve our understanding of the effectiveness of riparian zone management as a watershed management tool among water managers and land owners, but to also provide a basis for deciding on management actions.     

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DESIGN OF STREAM CHMNEL MODIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The designs of stream channel naturalization, rehabilitation, and restoration projects are inherently fraught with uncertainty. Although a systematic approach to design can be described, the likelihood of success or failure of the design is unknown due to uncertainties within the design and implementation process. In this paper, a method for incorporating uncertainty in decision‐making during the design phase is presented that uses a decision analysis method known as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The approach is applied to a channel rehabilitation project in north‐central Pennsylvania. FMEA considers risk in terms of the likelihood of a component failure, the consequences of failure, and the level of difficulty required to detect failure. Ratings developed as part of the FMEA can provide justification for decision making in determining design components that require particular attention to prevent failure of the project and the appropriate compensating actions to be taken.     

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Ni?as, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Ni?o, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.     

Economic Impacts of Zebra Mussels on Drinking Water Treatment and Electric Power Generation Facilities

Invasions of nonnative species such as zebra mussels can have both ecological and economic consequences. The economic impacts of zebra mussels have not been examined in detail since the mid-1990s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the annual and cumulative economic impact of zebra mussels on surface water-dependent drinking water treatment and electric power generation facilities (where previous research indicated the greatest impacts). The study time frame was from the first full year after discovery in North America (Lake St. Clair, 1989) to the present (2004); the study area was throughout the mussels’ North American range. A mail survey resulted in a response rate of 31% for electric power companies and 41% for drinking water treatment plants. Telephone interviews with a sample of nonrespondents assessed nonresponse bias; only one difference was found and adjusted for. Over one-third (37%) of surveyed facilities reported finding zebra mussels in the facility and almost half (45%) have initiated preventive measures to prevent zebra mussels from entering the facility operations. Almost all surveyed facilities (91%) with zebra mussels have used control or mitigation alternatives to remove or control zebra mussels. We estimated that 36% of surveyed facilities experienced an economic impact. Expanding the sample to the population of the study area, we estimated $267 million (BCa 95% CI = $161 million–$467 million) in total economic costs for electric generation and water treatment facilities through late 2004, since 1989. Annual costs were greater ($44,000/facility) during the early years of zebra mussel infestation than in recent years ($30,000). As a result of this and other factors, early predictions of the ultimate costs of the zebra mussel invasion may have been excessive.