Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US5 and US 5 and US 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US2 and US 2 and US 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.     

H-Print: a new chemical fingerprinting approach for distinguishing primary production sources in Arctic ecosystems

The unambiguous identification of discrete sources of organic matter is critical for understanding the processes that affect ecosystem structure. Here, we demonstrate how changes in the relative proportions of highly branched isoprenoid lipids can provide a straightforward analytical method to distinguish between organic matter derived from sea ice and seawater within an Arctic ecosystem. In combination with stable isotope analysis, we reconstruct the organic matter pathway across trophic levels, thereby elucidating specific organic matter energy transfers. Combined, these methods will provide a useful analytical approach for determining ecosystem structure in the future. This is likely to become increasingly important as the Arctic continues to experience a phase of rapid climate change.     

Background level of risk determines the intensity of predator neophobia in juvenile convict cichlids

Behavioural ecology is rife with examples of prey animals that are able to adjust the intensity of their anti-predator response to match background risk levels. Often, preys need experience with predators before they will invest in costly anti-predator responses. This means that prey animals often fail to respond to predators during their first encounter. Recently, we have shown that prey raised under high-risk conditions may exhibit avoidance of potential predation cues independent of experience (neophobia). Such phenotypically plastic neophobic predator responses may reduce the initial costs of learning ecologically relevant threats while maintaining sufficient behavioural plasticity to respond to variation in local conditions. Here, we test if induced neophobia results in threat-sensitive behavioural trade-offs in response to a novel chemosensory cue. Our first experiment shows that while juvenile convict cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata) pre-exposed to high (but not low) risk conditions exhibited predator avoidance to a novel odour (rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss), the response intensity was not influenced by the concentration of trout odour detected. Our second experiment demonstrated that the intensity of anti-predator response towards a novel predator cue was dependent upon the level of background risk. Convict cichlids pre-exposed to high-risk conditions showed stronger responses than those pre-exposed to low-risk conditions, while cichlids pre-exposed to intermediate-risk conditions exhibited intermediate response intensities. Together, these data demonstrate that background levels of risk and not the concentration of novel cues detected shape the induced neophobic response pattern of juvenile convict cichlids.     

Minimum area requirements for an at‐risk butterfly based on movement and demography

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species’ traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7–1.5 ha, in accordance with trait‐based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture‐mark‐recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape‐scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation.     

Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private‐sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them.