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201.
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部分高风险危化品企业搬迁改造困难重重,为控制风险、保护周围人民生命和财产安全,有必要建立动态风险评价系统,对事故发生概率进行监控和预测。采用贝叶斯网络对事故发生概率进行定量分析。先在利用蝴蝶结模型辨识事故原因和后果的基础上,将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;再导入"前导事件"信息和先验概率推导后验事故发生概率,量化分析事故发生随时间的变化概率;最后,以储罐溢流场景为例进行动态风险计算,结果表明,随化工装置生产时间和"前导事件"增长,元件失效概率和事故风险呈显著增长趋势。因此建议企业应重视"前导事件"并采取措施减少"前导事件",如优化检维修方案、及时更换关键部件、进行全面的事故调查等。 相似文献
203.
基于有序Logit与Probit模型的交通事故严重性影响因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为准确分析影响交通事故严重性的各项因素,引入有序选择模型中的Ordinal Logit模型和Ordinal Probit模型,研究驾驶员、车辆、环境、管理因素与事故严重程度之间的耦合关系,利用计量经济学理论和统计学方法对模型进行显著性检验。并选择美国北卡罗来纳州2010年至2014年385个翻车事故样本进行严重性影响因素分析,所得回归模型参数估计均符合Wald检验(p≤0.0001)和似然比检验(p≤0.0001),模型的拟合度也都符合Pearson检验(p=0.7976)、偏差检验(p=0.6006)和信息准则检验,模型预测精度指标值均大于0.7。所得两个模型中变量"安全带"(p≤0.001)、"路面状况"(p=0.0071)、"道路线形"(p=0.0077)、"路面类型"(p=0.0251)都对翻车事故的严重性具有显著影响,表明有序Logit模型和有序Probit模型均适用于分析和揭示影响交通事故严重性的各个因素。 相似文献
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农药环境风险评估中常用的计算毒理学模型软件 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
农药的大量使用为我国带来了严重的环境和健康问题,仅依靠传统生物测试和环境监测的方法已经不能满足农药风险评估的需要。利用计算毒理学模型,可以实现农药的高通量风险评估。本文主要介绍了农药环境风险评估中常用免费的EPI Suite、QSAR Toolbox和PBT Profiler等定量结构-活性关系(Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship,QSAR)模型软件和SCIGROW、PRZM-GW、China-PEARL和EQC等环境多介质模型软件,以期能为农药的风险评估和科学管理提供参考。 相似文献
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简述电路板组件随机振动试验仿真实现的原理和方法。通过有限元软件对电路板组件模型进行随机振动仿真分析,结合电路板组件随机振动试验的频率响应特性结果验证了仿真分析的有效性。 相似文献
208.
Yu Qi Jin Li Rui Liang Sitong Ji Jianxiang Li Meng Liu 《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2017,11(2):14
This paper studied the biofilm properties and corrosion behavior of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) on stainless steel 316L (SS316L) surface in circulating cooling water system with and without additives including hydroxy ethyl fork phosphonic acid (HEDP), dodecyl dimethyl benzyl ammonium chlotide (1227) and NaClO. Biochemical technique, electrochemical technology, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were used. The results show that the extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) in biofilm attached on the SS316L surface mainly contain proteins and polysaccharides, the contents are 98 ug·cm-2 and 635ug·cm-2, respectively. The polysaccharides were cut by 1227 about 80%, while 55% by NaClO. The proteins were reduced by NaClO about 53%, while only 30% by 1227. The potentiodynamic polarization shows that the corrosion potential of SS316L was enhanced from -0.495 V to -0.390 V by the chemical additives, delaying the occurrence of the corrosion. And the corrosion rate was also reduced from 5.19 × 10-3 mm·a-1 to 2.42 × 10-3 mm·a-1. But NaClO still caused pitting corrosion after sterilizing the bacteria, while 1227 can form a protective film on the surface of SS316L. Though HEDP contribute to the bacteria activity, it can enhance the breakdown potential. XPS results confirmed that 1227 can change the value of C:O in the biofilm attached on metal surface, and NaClO can eliminate the existence of amidogen. This study would provide some recommendations for the selection of chemical additives in the thermal power plant. 相似文献
209.
Tomáš Hlásny Ivan Barka Ladislav Kulla Tomáš Bucha Róbert Sedmák Jiří Trombik 《Regional Environmental Change》2017,17(1):65-77
European forestry is facing many challenges, including the need to adapt to climate change and an unprecedented increase in forest damage. We investigated these challenges in a Norway spruce-dominated mountain region in Central Europe. We used the model Sibyla to explore forest biomass production to the year 2100 under climate change and under two alternative management systems: the currently applied management (CM), which strives to actively improve the forest’s adaptive capacity, and no management (NM) as a reference. Because biodiversity is thought to have mostly positive effects on the adaptive capacity of forests and on the quality of ecosystem services, we explored how climate change and management affect indicators of biodiversity. We found a differential response across the elevation-climatic gradient, including a drought-induced decrease in biomass production over large areas. With CM, the support of non-spruce species and the projected improvement of their growth increased tree species diversity. The promotion of species with higher survival rates led to a decrease in forest damage relative to both the present conditions and NM. NM preserved the high density of over-matured spruce trees, which caused forest damage to increase. An abundance of dead wood and large standing trees, which can increase biodiversity, increased with NM. Our results suggest that commercial spruce forests, which are not actively adapted to climate change, tend to preserve their monospecific composition at a cost of increased forest damage. The persisting high rates of damage along with the adverse effects of climate change make the prospects of such forests uncertain. 相似文献
210.
<正>1.Editor's note On 30 November 2016,the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy(BTC),Caixin Video,and Columbia Global Centers(Beijing)jointly hosted a Seminar on the Future of Global Governance and Climate Change Action in a Changing Political Landscape.Leading experts on China's environmental policy and climate 相似文献