Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model

This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land‐management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high‐flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.     

On the road to ‘research municipalities’: analysing transdisciplinarity in municipal ecosystem services and adaptation planning

Transdisciplinary research and collaboration is widely acknowledged as a critical success factor for solution-oriented approaches that can tackle complex sustainability challenges, such as biodiversity loss, pollution, and climate-related hazards. In this context, city governments’ engagement in transdisciplinarity is generally seen as a key condition for societal transformation towards sustainability. However, empirical evidence is rare. This paper presents a self-assessment of a joint research project on ecosystem services and climate adaptation planning (ECOSIMP) undertaken by four universities and seven Swedish municipalities. We apply a set of design principles and guiding questions for transdisciplinary sustainability projects and, on this basis, identify key aspects for supporting university–municipality collaboration. We show that: (1) selecting the number and type of project stakeholders requires more explicit consideration of the purpose of societal actors’ participation; (2) concrete, interim benefits for participating practitioners and organisations need to be continuously discussed; (3) promoting the ‘inter’, i.e., interdisciplinary and inter-city learning, can support transdisciplinarity and, ultimately, urban sustainability and long-term change. In this context, we found that design principles for transdisciplinarity have the potential to (4) mitigate project shortcomings, even when transdisciplinarity is not an explicit aim, and (5) address differences and allow new voices to be heard. We propose additional guiding questions to address shortcomings and inspire reflexivity in transdisciplinary projects.     

An expanded conceptual framework for solution-focused management of chemical pollution in European waters

Background

This paper describes a conceptual framework for solutions-focused management of chemical contaminants built on novel and systematic approaches for identifying, quantifying and reducing risks of these substances.

Methods

The conceptual framework was developed in interaction with stakeholders representing relevant authorities and organisations responsible for managing environmental quality of water bodies. Stakeholder needs were compiled via a survey and dialogue. The content of the conceptual framework was thereafter developed with inputs from relevant scientific disciplines.

Results

The conceptual framework consists of four access points: Chemicals, Environment, Abatement and Society, representing different aspects and approaches to engaging in the issue of chemical contamination of surface waters. It widens the scope for assessment and management of chemicals in comparison to a traditional (mostly) perchemical risk assessment approaches by including abatement- and societal approaches as optional solutions. The solution-focused approach implies an identification of abatement- and policy options upfront in the risk assessment process. The conceptual framework was designed for use in current and future chemical pollution assessments for the aquatic environment, including the specific challenges encountered in prioritising individual chemicals and mixtures, and is applicable for the development of approaches for safe chemical management in a broader sense. The four access points of the conceptual framework are interlinked by four key topics representing the main scientific challenges that need to be addressed, i.e.: identifying and prioritising hazardous chemicals at different scales; selecting relevant and efficient abatement options; providing regulatory support for chemicals management; predicting and prioritising future chemical risks. The conceptual framework aligns current challenges in the safe production and use of chemicals. The current state of knowledge and implementation of these challenges is described.

Conclusions

The use of the conceptual framework, and addressing the challenges, is intended to support: (1) forwarding sustainable use of chemicals, (2) identification of pollutants of priority concern for cost-effective management, (3) the selection of optimal abatement options and (4) the development and use of optimised legal and policy instruments.

     

Speciation and hydrological transport of metals in non-acidic river systems of the Lake Baikal basin: Field data and model predictions

The speciation of metals in aqueous systems is central to understanding their mobility, bioavailability, toxicity and fate. Although several geochemical speciation models exist for metals, the equilibrium conditions assumed by many of them may not prevail in field-scale hydrological systems with flowing water. Furthermore, the dominant processes and/or process rates in non-acidic systems might differ from well-studied acidic systems. We here aim to increase knowledge on geochemical processes controlling speciation and transport of metals under non-acidic river conditions. Specifically, we evaluate the predictive capacity of a speciation model to novel measurements of multiple metals and their partitioning, under high-pH conditions in mining zones within the Lake Baikal basin. The mining zones are potential hotspots for increasing metal loads to downstream river systems. Metals released from such upstream regions may be transported all the way to Lake Baikal, where increasing metal contamination of sediments and biota has been reported. Our results show clear agreement between speciation predictions and field measurements of Fe, V, Pb and Zn, suggesting that the partitioning of these metals mainly was governed by equilibrium geochemistry under the studied conditions. Systematic over-predictions of dissolved Cr, Cu and Mo by the model were observed, which might be corrected by improving the adsorption database for hydroxyapatite because that mineral likely controls the solubility of these metals. Additionally, metal complexation by dissolved organic matter is a key parameter that needs continued monitoring in the Lake Baikal basin because dependable predictions could not be made without considering its variability. Finally, our investigation indicates that further model development is needed for accurate As speciation predictions under non-acidic conditions, which is crucial for improved health risk assessments on this contaminant.

     

A yearly maximum sea level simulator and its applications: A Stockholm case study

A yearly maximum sea level simulator for Stockholm is presented. The simulator combines extreme sea level estimates and mean sea level rise projections into a joint probabilistic framework. The framework can be used, for example, to assess the risk that new structures placed at the current minimum allowed height above the sea level can become flooded in the future. Such assessments can be used to underpin future building free levels, which would be a great improvement over the much more arbitrary criteria in use today. Another strong point of the framework is that it can be used to quantify the influence of uncertainties in mean sea level projections, estimates of sea level extremes and future emission scenarios on the risk of flooding. For Stockholm mean sea level uncertainty is found to be much more important than extreme sea level uncertainty. The framework is also set-up to test adaptation measures. It is found that protections that are built once the mean sea level has risen above some given threshold can be very efficient. Lastly, the framework is embedded into a simple decision problem that can be used to calculate risk/reward ratios for land development as a function of height above today’s mean sea level.     

Atmospheric deposition, retention, and stream export of dioxins and PCBs in a pristine boreal catchment

The mass-balance between diffuse atmospheric deposition of organic pollutants, amount of pollutants retained by the terrestrial environment, and levels of pollutants released to surface stream waters was studied in a pristine northern boreal catchment. This was done by comparing the input of atmospheric deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and PCBs with the amounts exported to surface waters. Two types of deposition samplers were used, equipped with a glass fibre thimble and an Amberlite sampler respectively. The measured fluxes showed clear seasonality, with most of the input and export occurring during winter and spring flood, respectively. The mass balance calculations indicates that the boreal landscape is an effective sink for PCDD/Fs and PCBs, as 96.0-99.9 % of received bulk deposition was retained, suggesting that organic pollutants will continue to impact stream water in the region for an extended period of time.     

Policy design for a multifunctional landscape

Landscapes consisting of several elements, such as wetlands and forests, are multifunctional in nature and produce both market and non-market goods. The need for policies arises from the existence of non-market ecosystem services that are not traded and thereby generally not subject to economic trade-offs in landowner decision making. An efficient incentive scheme for producing both types of goods would require policy designed for each non-market good. However, this may result in high transaction costs, possibly giving second-best solutions a comparative advantage when only one non-market good is regulated. This paper demonstrates that in the Hovran catchment area in mid Sweden, which produces the non-market goods water quality, biodiversity, and scenic beauty, compensation payments for biodiversity production alone provide almost maximum total net value of all market and non-market goods. On the other hand, payments for providing scenic beauty in the form of open landscape may result in lower total net value than no compensation payment at all, due to a negative impact on water quality.     

Long-range transport of acidifying substances in East Asia—Part II: Source–receptor relationships

Region-to-grid source–receptor (S/R) relationships are established for sulfur and reactive nitrogen deposition in East Asia, using the Eulerian-type Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with emission and meteorology data for 2001. We proposed a source region attribution methodology by analyzing the non-linear responses of the CMAQ model to emission changes. Sensitivity simulations were conducted where emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and primary particles from a source region were reduced by 25%. The difference between the base and sensitivity simulations was multiplied by a factor of four, and then defined as the contribution from that source region. The transboundary influence exhibits strong seasonal variation and generally peaks during the dry seasons. Long-range transport from eastern China contributes a significant percentage (>20%) of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen as well as sulfur deposition in East Asia. At the same time, northwestern China receives approximately 35% of its sulfur load and 45% of its nitrogen load from foreign emissions. Sulfur emissions from Miyakejima and other volcanoes contribute approximately 50% of the sulfur load in Japan in 2001. Sulfur inflows from regions outside the study domain, which is attributed by using boundary conditions derived from the MOZART global atmospheric chemistry model, are pronounced (10–40%) over most parts of Asia. Compared with previous studies using simple Lagrangian models, our results indicate higher influence from long-range transport. The estimated S/R relationships are believed to be more realistic since they include global influence as well as internal interactions among different parts of China.