global warming — uncertainties,effects, and policy options

Environmental policy making is a challenging task. Often the scope of an issue is not fully comprehended, and its future impact is even less well understood. Global warming is one of these environmental issues. The issue is made more complex because, first, there is a question of whether it is a problem at all and, second, unilateral policy making by one nation may not be sufficient or even significant to tackle the problem globally. This article outlines the scientific factors that contribute to global warming and discusses the uncertainties involved. The authors then discuss the ramifications of taking action (policy making) and failing to act (doing nothing) against the background of global warming, greenhouse gases, and cost-benefit analysis. The article concludes by reporting the results of a multidisciplinary panel of experts composed of scientists, economists, and policy analysts who commented on various policy options.     

Environmental variability and allocation trade-offs maintain species diversity in a process-based model of succulent plant communities

Ecological theory suggests that environmental variability can promote coexistence, provided that species occupy differential niches. In this study, we focus on two questions: (1) Do allocation trade-offs provide a sufficient basis for niche differentiation in succulent plant communities? (2) What is the relative importance of different forms of environmental variability on species diversity and community composition? We approach these questions with a generic, individual-based simulation model. In our model, plants compete for water in a spatially explicit environment. Species differ in their size at maturity and in the allocation of carbon to roots, leaves and storage tissue. The model was fully specified with independent literature data. Model output was compared to characteristics of a species-rich community in the semi-arid Richtersveld (South Africa). The model reproduced the coexistence of plants with different sizes at maturity, the dominance of succulent shrubs, and the level of vegetation cover. We analyzed the effects of three forms of environmental variability: (a) temporal fluctuations in precipitation (rain and fog), (b) spatial heterogeneity of water supply due to run-on and run-off processes and (c) ‘rock pockets’ that limit root competition in space. The three types of variability had differential effects on diversity: diversity exhibited a strong hump-shaped response to temporal variation. Spatial variability increased diversity, with the strongest increase occurring at intermediate levels of temporal variability. Finally, rock pockets had the weakest effect, but contributed to diversity by providing refuges for small species, particularly at low temporal variability. The model thus shows that spatio-temporal variation of resource supply can maintain diversity over long time scales even in small systems, as is the case in the Richtersveld succulent communities. Trade-offs in allocation provide the basis for necessary niche differentiation. By describing resource competition between individual plants, our model provides a mechanistic basis for the link from species traits to community composition at given environmental conditions. It thereby contributes to an understanding of the forces shaping plant communities. Such an understanding is critical to reduce the threats environmental change poses to biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

空气动力阴影区对高层建筑周围污染物浓度分布的影响

空气动力阴影区是在风的作用下建筑物背风侧和顶部的旋涡区。当建筑物附近有污染源存在时，污染物的浓度分布与污染源和空气动力阴影区之间的相对位置有着密切关系。以一高层建筑为例，采用数值模拟的方法，探讨和分析污染源在空气动力阴影区内外几个不同相对位置时，建筑物周围污染物分布的不同。     

SCALE PROBLEMS IN INTERDISCIPLINARY WATER RESOURCES INVESTIGATION1

ABSTRACT The problems encountered in estimating scale parameters in interdisciplinary watershed research are discussed. Meteorology, hydrology, geology and water quality are discussed with respect to their individual strengths and weaknesses when applied to different scale problems. Areas where incompatibilities exist are pointed out and suggestions are made for effecting compromise. A watershed scale of roughly a hundred acres may be the scale at which all disciplines can effect optimum interaction.     

Increased spatial variance accompanies reorganization of two continental shelf ecosystems

Phase transitions between alternate stable states in marine ecosystems lead to disruptive changes in ecosystem services, especially fisheries productivity. We used trawl survey data spanning phase transitions in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) and the North Atlantic (Scotian Shelf) to test for increases in ecosystem variability that might provide early warning of such transitions. In both time series, elevated spatial variability in a measure of community composition (ratio of cod [Gadus sp.] abundance to prey abundance) accompanied transitions between ecosystem states, and variability was negatively correlated with distance from the ecosystem transition point. In the Gulf of Alaska, where the phase transition was apparently the result of a sudden perturbation (climate regime shift), variance increased one year before the transition in mean state occurred. On the Scotian Shelf, where ecosystem reorganization was the result of persistent overfishing, a significant increase in variance occurred three years before the transition in mean state was detected. However, we could not reject the alternate explanation that increased variance may also have simply been inherent to the final stable state in that ecosystem. Increased variance has been previously observed around transition points in models, but rarely in real ecosystems, and our results demonstrate the possible management value in tracking the variance of key parameters in exploited ecosystems.     

Changes Versus Homeostasis in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Vegetation Over Three Decades in the Sub-Arctic

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977–1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.     

我国城市生活垃圾处理行业2009年发展综述

简述了2009年我国城市生活垃圾处理的总体状况;归纳了2009年国家发布和实施的有关标准和政策;介绍了2009年新批准申请CDM的填埋气体利用项目和垃圾焚烧发电项目、垃圾堆肥项目,以及新投入运行的生活垃圾焚烧发电厂;对城市生活垃圾处理行业的发展进行了展望。     

Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring,Remote Sensing,and Modeling1

Arp, C.D., B.M. Jones, M. Whitman, A. Larsen, and F.E. Urban, 2010. Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring, Remote Sensing, and Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 777-791. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00451.x Abstract: Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.     

Ozone flux over a Norway spruce forest and correlation with net ecosystem production

Daily ozone deposition flux to a Norway spruce forest in Czech Republic was measured using the gradient method in July and August 2008. Results were in good agreement with a deposition flux model. The mean daily stomatal uptake of ozone was around 47% of total deposition. Average deposition velocity was 0.39 cm s⁻¹ and 0.36 cm s⁻¹ by the gradient method and the deposition model, respectively. Measured and modelled non-stomatal uptake was around 0.2 cm s⁻¹. In addition, net ecosystem production (NEP) was measured by using Eddy Covariance and correlations with O₃ concentrations at 15 m a.g.l., total deposition and stomatal uptake were tested. Total deposition and stomatal uptake of ozone significantly decreased NEP, especially by high intensities of solar radiation.