应用贝叶斯理论的河流污染源重建探讨

为深入了解河流中有毒有害物质事故性污染的污染源、污染物质扩散等情况,通过MATLAB实现了河流中污染物质一维扩散模型的差分解法.该扩散模型可用于模拟1个或多个瞬时点源、持续稳定点源和持续变化点源情况下,河流中污染物质浓度随时间的变化,具有一定准确度.根据贝叶斯理论,结合扩散模型和监测数据估计污染源的位置和强度,并采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行后验推断,以解决贝叶斯模型计算复杂的问题.已知污染源情况下,可采用本文给出的扩散模型模拟河流下游污染物质浓度随时间的变化;污染源未知而拥有一定监测数据情况下,则可以采用本文提出的河流污染源重建技术估计污染源的位置、强度等.     

湖北省重大自然灾害数据库的设计与应用

自然灾害,尤其是重大自然灾害是影响生产布局、制约区域经济发展的重要因素,在重大灾害中,气象灾害和地震灾害是对人类威胁最大的灾种。湖北省地处长江中游,是我国重大自然灾害的多发区与重灾区,其减灾、防灾的研究具特别重要的意义。通过对湖北省历代有关气象灾害和地震灾害历史文献的收集、整理、分等分级,并且在计算机软硬件平台的支持下生成数据库,将零散、杂乱的各处有关灾害的史料变成一个有序的信息源,为有关抗灾、防     

山地地形重气扩散模拟中湍流模型的选择

针对类似开县井喷的毒气扩散事故,研究山地地形条件下如何合理选择湍流模型对重气扩散进行大范围数值模拟.在初始条件和边界条件相同条件下,采用密切值法对6个BANS模型(RSM、标准k-ε、RNG k-ε、可实现k-ε、标准k-ω和SST k-ω)的计算结果进行多方案选择,同时参考模拟中所消耗的CPU时间,使选用的模型尽可能在"计算精度"和"计算时间"之间取得平衡.结果表明,对山地条件下的大范围毒气扩散事故的模拟,采用标准k-ε模型时可在"计算精度"和"计算时间"之间取得较好平衡.可见,对山地地形条件下大范围重气扩散的数值模拟宜采用标准k-ε模型.     

风险严重度指数法在毒气泄漏评价中的应用

为评价某区域或某设备潜在的毒气泄漏事故场景的风险水平,以对不同的风险等级进行风险控制和安全规划,详细介绍了工业事故风险评估方法ARAMIS所采用的风险严重度指数法.首先基于事故频率和后果的风险矩阵选取毒气泄漏事故场景;然后运用毒气当量浓度计算任意暴露时间下不同风险严重度等级所对应的特征距离,并根据同一风险等级内风险严重度指数与距离的线性关系计算任意点的风险严重度指数;最后应用1个实例分析了考虑所研究区域的风向概率后对风险严重度指数的真实影响,便于工厂或企业识别不同的风险等级,进行不同场景下风险水平的对比性研究,为其安全设计及风险分析提供了一种新的评估方法.     

Anthropogenic metal cycles in China

The flows and stocks of seven important industrial metals were characterized for mainland China for several years in the dynamically changing decade of 1994–2004. One-year snapshot cycles are provided for chromium, nickel, and silver. For copper, zinc, lead, and iron, multiple-year cycles have been completed; they demonstrate that the flows of these metals into use in China doubled between 2000 and 2004. Although the Chinese per capita flows from production to disposal are mostly shown to be below the global average rate, they are increasing or are expected to increase dramatically. The metal resource efficiency is evaluated for several indicators of material flow analysis; these metrics for China are also below the global average values. The research quantitatively illustrates that China’s metal cycles may pose significant resource and environmental challenges in terms of their magnitudes and potential for growth.     

浅谈资源型城市可持续发展 ──以大庆为例阐述战略规划和环境政策制定的依据和原则

文章分析了资源型城市制定可持续发展战略和环境政策的依据和原则,以大庆开发建设多年来的成功经验和失败教训为例,阐释了资源型城市充分利用资源、资金、文化、人才的重要性和必要性,及对生态环境和人文环境充分保护的紧迫性。进而说明:充分利用好城市的各种资源,充分保护好城市的生态环境和人文环境,及早发展替代产业完成城市转型是资源型城市可持续发展的必由之路。     

Influence of complex reagents on removal of chromium(VI) by zero-valent iron

The removal of Cr(VI) by zero-valent iron (Fe(0)) and the effect of three complex reagents, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), NaF and 1,10-phenanthroline, on this reaction were investigated using batch reactors at pH values of 4, 5 and 6. The results indicate that the removal of Cr(VI) by Fe(0) is slow at pH 5.0 and that three complex reagents play different roles in the reaction. EDTA and NaF significantly enhance the reaction rate. The zero-order rate constants at pH 5.0 were 5.44 microM min(-1) in the presence of 4mM EDTA and 0.99 micrM min(-1) in the presence of 8 mM NaF, respectively, whereas that of control was only 0.33 micrM min(-1), even at pH=4.0. This enhancement is attributed to the formation of complex compounds between EDTA/NaF and reaction products, such as Cr(III) and Fe(III), which eliminate the precipitates of Cr(III), Fe(III) hydroxides and Cr(x)Fe(1-)(x)(OH)(3) and thus reduce surface passivation of Fe(0). In contrast, 1,10-phenanthroline, a complex reagent for Fe(II), dramatically decreases Cr(VI) reduction by Fe(0). At pH=4.0, the zero-order rate constant in the presence of 1mM of 1,10-phenanthroline was 0.02 micrM min(-1), decreasing by 99.7% and 93.9%, respectively, compared with the results in the presence and absence of EDTA. The results suggest that a pathway of the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) by Fe(0) may involve dissolution of Fe(0) to produce Fe(II), followed by reduction of Cr(VI) by Fe(II), rather than the direct reaction between Cr(VI) and Fe(0), in which Fe(0) transfers electrons to Cr(VI).     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

The Natural Vegetation Responses to the Groundwater Change Resulting from Ecological Water Conveyances to the Lower Tarim River

This paper takes the ecological water conveyance project (EWCP) that transfers water from the Bosten Lake, to Daxihaizi Reservoir, and finally to the Taitema Lake as a case study to analyze the dynamic change of the groundwater depth, the vegetation responses to the elevation of the groundwater depth as well as the relationship between the groundwater depth and the natural vegetation. The results from many years’ monitoring in field indicate: (1) the groundwater depth has been elevating gradually with the increase in the times of watering and the elevation range has been expanding continuously in the lower reaches of Tarim River. Correspondingly, the natural vegetation has a favorable response to the elevation of the groundwater depth. The change of the natural vegetation has accordance with that of the groundwater depth. Such facts not only show that groundwater is a key factor to the growth of the native vegetation but also prove it is feasible that the degraded ecosystem can be restored and protected by the EWCP; (2) the results of analysis of the spatial-temporal response of the natural vegetation to watering reveals that the beneficial influence of the EWCP on the ecosystem in the lower Tarim River is a long-term process; (3) in terms of the function and structure of ecosystem after watering in the lower reaches of Tarim River, the EWCP does not still reach the goal of ecological restoration at a large spatial scale at present. Based on such monitoring results, some countermeasures and suggestions for the future restoration strategy are proposed so as to provide a theoretical basis for restoring and protecting the ecosystem in Tarim River, and meanwhile it can also provide some scientific references for implementing the similar ecological projects in other areas.