Testing homogeneity of capture probabilities of animals in a removal experiment

Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ² test.

依靠科技进步,坚持可持续发展,为保护我们共同生存的环境而努力

通过对大庆石油管理局2000年度在水环境、大气环境、固体废物排放等方面的现状分析,总结了大庆石油管理局2000年环境保护工作,并针对石油化工废水处理、脱硫、废钻井液处理、垃圾处理和资源化等技术提出重点注意的问题。最后介绍了管理局“十五”期间环境保护技术发展的总体思路和环保科技主攻方向。     

Changes in groundwater levels and the response of natural vegetation to transfer of water to the lower reaches of the Tarim River

Restoration and reconstruction of the degraded Tarim River ecosystem is an important challenge.A goal of an ecological water conveyance project is to protect and restore the natural vegetation in the lower reaches of Tarim River by transferring water from Bosten Lake,through the river channel,to the lower reaches.This study describes the changes in groundwater depth during the water transfer and the respondence of riparian vegetation to alterations in groundwater levels.The results indicate that groundwater depth along the Tarim River channel has a significant spatial-temporal component.Groundwater levels closest to the river channel show the most immediate and pronounced changes as a response to water transfer while those further away respond more slowly,although the observed change appears to be longer in duration.With a rise in the groundwater level,natural vegetation responded with higher growth rates,biomass and biodiversity.These favorable changes show that it is feasible to protect and restore the degraded natural vegetation by raising the groundwater depth.Plant communities are likely to reflect the hysteresis phenomenon,requiring higher water levels to initiate and stimulate desired growth than what may be needed to maintain the plant community.Because different species have different ecologies,including different root depths and densities and water needs,their response to increasing water availability will be spatially and temporally heterogenous.The response of vegetation is also influenced by microtopography and watering style.This paper discusses strategies for the protection and restoration of the degraded vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River and provides information to complement ongoing theoretical research into ecological restoration in arid or semi-arid ecosystems.     

湖南省主要自然灾害及减灾策略

本文概述了湖南省的干旱、洪涝、低温冷害、冰雹、风灾、冰冻、农业病虫害、森林火灾水土流失、地震等主要自然灾害的时空分布特征及其对国民经济的影响,并对主要灾害的发展作出了预测,最后提出了减灾策略。     

南黄海6.1级地震及其跟踪预报过程

描述了１９９６年１１月９日南黄海６．１级地震的参数、序列特征、地震构造背景及其跟踪预报过程，并对有关问题进行了讨论     

Relationship between environmental exposure to toluene,xylene and ethylbenzene and the expired breath concentrations for gasoline service workers

This study evaluated the relationship between the breath concentrations of, and personal exposure to, toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene of thirty workers from ten gasoline stations. Personal exposure air samples and workplace samples were collected simultaneously. Each subject provided a sample of exhaled breath after his or her personal exposure air was sampled. Twenty-five personal air, 17 workplace and 30 breath samples were collected in this study. Results indicated that breath concentrations of toluene and xylene were significantly correlated with personal monitoring concentrations. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis showed that exhaled toluene levels were highly influenced by personal toluene concentrations and the amount of personal gasoline sold (r2 = 0.762), while exhaled xylene levels depended on wind speed and personal xylene exposure concentrations (r2 = 0.665). Exhaled ethylbenzene levels were too low to present a relationship between concentrations and personal exposure levels. The exhaled toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene concentrations ranged from 4.3 to 41.8, 0.9 to 13.9, and 0.2 to 6.5 ppb, and the corresponding personal monitoring concentrations ranged from 60.3 to 572.3, 16.4 to 156.6, and 10.7 to 136.6, respectively. The average number of symptoms per person, according to neurotoxic questionnaire 16 (abbreviated as Q16) was 4.1 and six workers showed over six symptoms in Q16. This study suggests that exhaled toluene and xylene levels are suitable for use as biological exposure indices even at the ppb-level of exposure. Gasoline service workers are exposed to high levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and the potential threats to their neurological systems deserve further investigation.     

Characterization of precipitation in the background of atmospheric pollutants reduction in Guilin: Temporal variation and source apportionment

Rainfall samples were collected from three observation sites in Guilin from 2013 to 2017, and the chemical composition characteristics of precipitation and the contribution made by different ion sources were analyzed when atmospheric pollutants levels were reduced. The results showed that acid gas emissions and atmospheric pollutant concentrations continued to decline during the study period. However, the change in the volume-weighted mean pH at the three sites suggested that acid rain pollution was not alleviated and began to deteriorate after 2015. The continuing downward trend for alkaline neutralizing ions (Ca²⁺, NH₄⁺) in precipitation indicated that the reduction in alkaline neutralizing substances in the atmosphere was an important factor that led to the deterioration in acid rain across Guilin. The principal component analysis and spearman correlation analysis indicated five sources of ions in precipitation. Quantitative assessment of these five sources indicated that fossil fuel combustion contributed the most ions concentration in precipitation at the three sites, followed by agriculture, terrestrial (crustal) sources, marine sources, and biomass burning. Long-distance airflow might affect the acidity, the electrical conductivity (EC), and ion concentrations in precipitation across Guilin. The airflow trajectory from the west and southeast directions corresponded to higher acidity and ion concentrations. According to the current air pollution control strategy planned by Guilin, reducing atmospheric coarse particles and NH₃ at the same time may potentially lead to further deteriorations in acid rain contents. Therefore, Guilin needs to develop more reasonable pollution prevention measures that synergistically control atmospheric pollutants and acid rain pollution.     

行人和疏散动力学研究现状及进展

行人和疏散动力学的研究在步行设施的设计,人群的安全疏散,城市规划及计算机疏散软件开发等方面具有重要意义.对国内外的研究现状进行了评述,对研究内容、研究方法进行了分类,对研究成果及应用进行了总结,同时指出了目前研究中存在的问题,对这一领域中研究发展提出了建议.     

恐怖袭击风险减缓实例分析

为避免被安全机构监视和追踪 ,恐怖组织常常利用网络结构的优势 ,通过对被动支持者的渗透 ,以突然出现的聚集群方式发动恐怖袭击。军队、警察等传统的反恐工具在试图压制这种多源性恐怖活动时将面临更大挑战。以“东突”问题为例 ,应用物理学的渗透概念模拟特定区域恐怖袭击威胁的形成机理 ,从理论上分析了采取非破坏性手段减缓恐怖袭击风险的可行性。     

城市公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故分析

城市公共场所人群高度聚集、流动性大,紧急状态时常发生群死群伤的拥挤踩踏事故,造成大量人员伤亡和恶劣的社会影响。笔者首先提出拥挤踩踏事故分析的一般方法,并用群集指数来表征人群高度聚集这一参量;通过对近年来国内外人群拥挤踩踏事故的分析,认为该类事故以人群高度聚集为条件,由公众造成又危害公众,具有诱因众多、发生突然、难以控制等特点;强调事故预防和控制重点是建立事故应急机制,加强人群的管理和疏导等;同时从公共场所的性能优化设计、人群素质和群集密度、人群管理控制以及信息交流等方面分析其事故原因及提出相应对策,对预防此类事故发生,减少群集伤亡有重要意义。