风险感知理论模型及影响因子分析

笔者目的在于通过文献凝练,明确风险感知在现代风险评估体系中的重要性,分析风险感知研究中亟需解决的定量化分析等关键问题,并提出相应的解决办法。通过心理测量范式和社会认知模型等经典理论方法的研究,梳理总结出适用于风险感知研究的理论模型;同时,对风险感知影响因子进行了定量化测量并对文化理论进行了探讨。结果表明,情绪因子使得63%的人产生面对风险时的态度波动。其中,愤怒和恐惧是体现最为明显的情绪类型。风险目标因子则直接影响人们对风险等级的判断。文化理论等方法表明,面对风险人们因心理特征和个性差异有不同行为选择并形成4种不同类别的人群。最后得出,风险感知是风险中人群行为决策和风险判断过程的基础,其中情绪因子应为今后相关研究探讨重点。     

地铁运行引起建筑物振动的三维有限元分析

随着城市轨道交通的迅猛发展,大量建筑设施不可避免地受到周边铁路或地铁列车振动的影响。基于并行计算集群平台,建立了车辆-轨道-高架桥-基础-地基-建筑物耦合的大型三维有限元分析模型,得到了不同工况下列车运行引起地表及临近建筑结构的振动特征。主要结论如下:不同高度的建筑物在同一楼层的振级相差极小;随着车速的提高,建筑物各楼层的振级均呈逐渐增大趋势;此外,各楼层的振级随建筑物距高架桥距离的增大而逐渐减小。一般高度的建筑物各楼层的振级基本沿高度单调增加,顶层振级最大,而高层建筑物却有明显的拐点,在中间某层出现最大振级。建筑物各层楼板的竖直向振动峰值速度远大于水平向振动峰值。     

一起钢质无缝气瓶爆炸事故技术分析

文章简要描述了一起消防气体灭火钢质气瓶爆炸事故,对爆炸气瓶进行了断口分析、金相试验和理化试验,并分析了事故的原因,提醒制造厂家规范制造工艺,对预防类似事故的发生具有一定的参考意义。     

磷在农田溪流中的动态变化

磷是水体富营养化的限制因子,河流系统是农业非点源污染物的主要运移通道,污染物在河流中的持留控制着污染物向受纳水体的输出.本次研究对象是巢湖流域一个长约1.8 km的农田源头溪流六岔河,河流由4个渠道型、1个水塘型和3个河口型断面构成,长度分别为1.3 km、0.15 km和0.36 km.在河流上设置9个监测点研究总磷、磷酸盐和悬浮物在六岔河中的持留空间特征,评价人为严重干扰下的农田溪流在农业非点源污染物运移中的生态功能.结果表明:总磷、磷酸盐、悬浮物在溪流中的持留和释放受溪流的渠道型、水塘型和河口型断面控制,水塘型和河口型断面是污染物持留的主要区域,总磷、磷酸盐和悬浮物在水塘型、河口型断面内的持留量分别占溪流持留量的58%、77%和58%;污染物在降雨-径流过程中的持留是溪流持留的主要部分,总磷、磷酸盐和悬浮物的持留分别占溪流持留量的96%、98%和93%;渠道型断面是溪流最主要的内在污染源,总磷、磷酸盐和悬浮物的释放分别占溪流释放量的93%、99%和94%;养分和悬浮物在渠道型断面中具有不同的持留特性,而位于水塘前的渠道型断面在基流和降雨-径流过程中均能有效地持留污染物.     

Arsenic species in the well water and sediments of the blackfoot disease area in Taiwan

The blackfoot disease (BFD) observed in southwestern Taiwan is due to drinking high arsenic concentrations in well water. This paper presents some results concerning the distributions of arsenic species in water and sediments collected in the BFD (well, river and coastal) area and the background (lake and ocean) area for comparison. The results show that the concentrations of arsenate (870 ± 26 ug/L) and arsenite (70.2 ± 2.6 ug/ L) in well waters, and the contents of arsenic (1640 ug/g) with high percentage of easily reducible (Fe and Mn oxides, 91.7%) and exchangeable and carbonate (4.6%) phases in well sediments were much higher than those in river, lake and coastal samples. Low arsenic (3.46–31.8 ug/g) with high percentages (73.8–97.3%) of detritus and minerals phase with low percentages (0.4–9.8%) of total carbonate and exchangeable phases were found in the river and coastal samples in the BFD area as well as the lake and ocean samples in background area. It might suggest that the higher concentrations of toxic As(III) in well water and arsenic with higher values of easily reducible, carbonate and exchangeable phases in the well sediments, combined with the higher values of dissolved organic carbon, humic and fulvic acids and aromatic carbon as well as the higher fluorescence indensity in the well water are the key factors to cause the BFD in Taiwan.     

Sustainability analysis of Chinese transport policy

SUMMARY

Whilst the world economy is developed, the life and development of human beings have been threatened by the imbalance between environmental and ecological aspects. Thus, sustainability is becoming increasingly the focus of various social fields. For most developing countries, a strategy with good sustainability for social development is of long-term significance to keep the economy in expansion. This paper first reviews the conceptual framework and up-to-date development of sustainability. Second, it reviews the current transport situation of China and its future demands. Third, the paper analyses transport policy from the viewpoints of energy consumption and environment pollution caused by transportation. It finally summarises suggestions for transport policy that China should consider in the future.     

Ecological restoration,social-economic changes and sustainable development in the Three Gorges Reservoir area: A case study in Yunyang,Chongqing Municipality

The Three Gorges Reservoir area contains high mountains and deep valleys. The fragile mountainous ecosystems are facing problems such as overpopulation, less available farmland, ecological degradation and poverty. The construction of the Three Gorges Project and a series of ecological restoration activities and social-economic changes have influenced the present and future viability of this area. The measures which have been taken indicate that restoring and renewing the degraded ecosystems and improving the economy is a prerequisite and is possible. Yunyang, a typical county, both in terms of poverty and ecological degradation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing Municipality, was chosen for the case study. This paper discusses the impacts of the Grain-for-Green project, ecological agriculture, urban and infrastructure building and ecological immigrants on the regional sustainable development through detailed field investigation and a questionnaire survey.     

光伏电站计划孤岛的划分与实现

为了解决光伏电站孤岛运行给电网和用户带来的电压不稳、保护误动和人身触电等问题,通过分析孤岛现象产生的原因及其对电网的影响,提出了以岛内安全、可靠为主的设计和划分基本原则及应用快切装置实现对光伏电站计划孤岛运行和并网运行进行切换的方法。结果表明:光伏电站计划孤岛运行模式不仅能够有效解决孤岛运行问题,还能够为电网稳定运行提供可靠电源支撑。     

基于TLSER和QSPR关系预测PAHs和PCBs的LDPE膜-空气分配系数

有机污染物在被动采样材料与环境介质之间的平衡分配系数(K_P),是测定环境中有机污染物浓度的重要参数,但K_P值大部分都需要经过繁琐的实验测定获取,无法逐个测定数量繁多的污染物,因此需开发一种预测K_P值的方法。为此,搜集整理了一些多环芳香烃(PAHs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)的低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)-空气分配系数(K_PA)的实测值,基于理论线性溶解能(TLSER)和定量结构性质关系(QSPR),利用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)分别构建了预测K_PA值的模型。模型的决定系数R2adj分别为0.927和0.956,交叉验证系数Q2LOO分别为0.915和0.946,外部系数Q2ext分别为0.913和0.960。结果表明,2种模型具有良好的拟合优度、稳健性和预测能力,并解释了模型的机理。所构建的2种模型均可用来预测应用域内有机污染物的LDPE膜-空气分配系数。     

重金属汞对海洋底栖动物毛蚶和紫贻贝毒性效应研究

本文基于我国近海典型底栖双壳类生物毛蚶、紫贻贝急性和慢性毒性效应实验数据,分析了重金属汞对受试生物体质量、体长及消化腺超氧化物歧化酶(superoxide dismutase, SOD)酶活力的影响,获取了无观察效应浓度(No Observed Effect Concentration, NOEC),并以生存率为反应终点分析计算了重金属汞的非检测毒性效应浓度及半致死浓度。结果表明,各实验组SOD酶活力的组内方差与组间方差的差异整体上并不显著(P > 0.05),实验周期内仅在个别时间处理组间存在显著性差异(P < 0.05);实验周期内毛蚶和紫贻贝体质量、体长的组内方差与组间方差并没有显著性差异(P > 0.1),体长及体质量不适合作为毒性效应的评价终点。重金属汞对毛蚶、紫贻贝的非检测毒性效应浓度分别为23.7 μg·L-1、87.8 μg·L-1,半致死浓度分别为683.4 μg·L-1、773.2 μg·L-1。