Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessment.     

Volatile organic compounds in air at urban and industrial areas in the Tarragona region by thermal desorption and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry

Annual trends of a group of 66 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), containing 20 ozone precursors, were the aim of a sampling campaign carried out for a year in air at urban and industrial areas from Tarragona region. VOCs were determined by active collection on multisorbent tubes, followed by thermal desorption and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The analytical method was developed and validated, showing good levels of detection and quantification, recoveries, precision, and linearity for all the compounds in the range being studied. All the industrial and urban samples taken during the sampling campaign were similar in their qualitative composition. The most abundant compound in all urban and industrial sites was i-pentane, with concentrations between 15.2 and 202.1 μg m^???3 in urban sites and between 1.3 and 98.6 μg m^???3 in industrial sites. In urban sites, the following compounds in order of abundance were toluene, n-pentane, m,p-xylene, and o-xylene, with maximum levels of 150.6, 45.8, 42.3, and 31.7 μg m^???3, respectively. In industrial sites, the most abundant compounds depended on the sampled site.     

Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities

Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.     

Bioaccumulation and public health implications of trace metals in edible tissues of the crustaceans <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scylla serrata</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Penaeus monodon</Emphasis> from the Tanzanian coast

The coastal population in East Africa is growing rapidly but sewage treatment and recycling facilities in major cities and towns are poorly developed. Since estuarine mangroves are the main hotspots for pollutants, there is a potential for contaminants to accumulate in edible fauna and threaten public health. This study analysed trace metals in muscle tissues of the giant mud crabs (Scylla serrata) and the giant tiger prawns (Penaeus monodon) from the Tanzanian coast, in order to determine the extent of bioaccumulation and public health risks. A total of 180 samples of muscle tissues of S. serrata and 80 of P. monodon were collected from nine sites along the coast. Both species showed high levels of trace metals in the wet season and significant bioaccumulation of As, Cu and Zn. Due to their burrowing and feeding habits, mud crabs were more contaminated compared to tiger prawns sampled from the same sites. Apart from that, the measured levels of Cd, Cr and Pb did not exceed maximum limits for human consumption. Based on the current trend of fish consumption in Tanzania (7.7 kg/person/year), the measured elements (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn) are not likely to present health risks to shellfish consumers. Nevertheless, potential risks of As and Cu cannot be ruled out if the average per capita consumption is exceeded. This calls for strengthened waste management systems and pollution control measures.     

Evaluating the Environmental Performance of Urban Parks in Mediterranean Cities: An Example from the Barcelona Metropolitan Region

In a context of increasing urban sprawl and water scarcity common to other Mediterranean cities, this article focuses on the urban parks in the Region of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) to examine how these parks are distributed in this region and to assess whether their design and management follow criteria adapted to Mediterranean environmental conditions, especially in what concerns water use. In order to evaluate the environmental performance of these parks, we selected four factors possibly influencing the adoption of park management practices at the local scale: urban density, population size of the municipality, municipal income per capita, and political orientation of the city council. After determining the location and area of urban parks in the region, we correlated these four explanatory factors with several management tasks extracted from two different samples of parks (one of 315 parks and another of 125 parks) and a survey of 86 city councils. Results show that, in general, urban parks were more frequent in large, dense, and left/green municipalities but that environmentally sound practices were more common in small and low-density municipalities. We conclude that changes in certain practices (especially the substitution of high water demanding species) could improve significantly the environmental performance of public spaces in large urban areas with Mediterranean climates. Our observations may be pertinent for other cities interested in the provision of environmental public goods such as parks that necessitate water for irrigation.     

Is dew water potable? Chemical and biological analyses of dew water in Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France)

To determine to what extent dew water is potable without further treatment, a thorough set of chemical and biological analyses were performed on 10 samples of dew water collected on a large scale radiative collector (29.83 m2) in Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France), between 21 May 2002 and 5 Mar. 2003. Samples were collected following four protocols according to the dew volume amount and 48 parameters (ions, minerals, and bacteria) were analyzed and compared to French and European Union legislation and also World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Aluminum and Fe were the main pollutants whose concentrations were significantly larger than recommended. Their presence is due to local deposition of aerosols coming from the Sahara (a characteristic of the Mediterranean basin). A large number of biologically cultivable microorganisms were found, together with bacteria typical of fecal contamination. For dew water to be potable with respect to present legislation at the Ajaccio site, it should be disinfected and treated for turbidity.     

Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.     

Adapting a geographical information system-based water resource management to the needs of the Romanian water authorities

Background, aim, and scope  

The need for global and integrated approaches to water resources management, both from the quantitative and the qualitative point of view, has long been recognized. Water quality management is a major issue for sustainable development and a mandatory task with respect to the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive as well as the Swiss legislation. However, data modelling to develop relational databases and subsequent geographic information system (GIS)-based water management instruments are a rather recent and not that widespread trend. The publication of overall guidelines for data modelling along with the EU Water Framework Directive is an important milestone in this area. Improving overall water quality requires better and more easily accessible data, but also the possibility to link data to simulation models. Models are to be used to derive indicators that will in turn support decision-making processes. For this whole chain to become effective at a river basin scale, all its components have to become part of the current daily practice of the local water administration. Any system, tool, or instrument that is not designed to meet, first of all, the fundamental needs of its primary end-users has almost no chance to be successful in the longer term.     

First-trimester diagnosis of osteogenesis imperfecta associated with encephalocele by conventional and three-dimensional ultrasound

To illustrate the three-dimensional sonographic features of a rare genetic disorder, we report on prenatal diagnosis of osteogenesis imperfecta congenita associated with encephalocele at 13 weeks of gestation, using conventional and three-dimensional ultrasound. Because the parents were first-degree cousins and on the basis of the family history, a recessive autosomal inheritance was suspected. Of seven previous pregnancies, five were unaffected and two had been terminated in the second trimester owing to a similar abnormality (one affected boy and one affected girl). In the case we present, the diagnosis was made on the basis of two-dimensional ultrasound performed by physicians aware of the history; the quality of three-dimensional ultrasound imaging suggests that this technique might have contributed toward establishing a precise diagnosis in the absence of a positive family history. Besides, the global view provided by three-dimensional surface-rendering images made the parents more confident of the accuracy of the diagnosis. Although osteogenesis imperfecta congenita is generally considered as autosomal dominant, the case we report suggests that it may be inherited in a recessive autosomal fashion at least when associated with encephalocele. Three-dimensional ultrasound confirmed the conventional two-dimensional examination and was helpful in convincing the parents of the accuracy of the diagnosis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.