北极4个亚区的影响分析

在评价北极陆地生态系统影响时,人们常常强调物种和生态系统对环境变化响应的地理变化,这种变化往往与气候、生物多样性、植被带、生态系统结构和功能的南-北梯度相关联,可是,环境、生态系统的功能和结构上,以及环境史和当前气候变化的明显东-西变化显然也很重要.尽管一些地方变得温暖,但另一些地方却降温了,海洋、群岛和山脉等地理屏障的东西差异过去也对物种和植被带响应气候变化而改变分布区的能力产生了很大影响,同时,这些地理屏障为种群遗传分化和生物多样性热点区的形成提供了必要的隔离条件,这些屏障在未来气候变暖时,也将影响物种重新分布的能力.为了说明这种东西向的变化,同时也避免过分笼统或过于专业化,基于大尺度的天气和气候形成因素,北极气候影响评价项目确定了4个主要亚区.通过模拟与4个北极气候影响评价亚区有关的主要信息,导致物种分布区发生改变的地理屏障,特别是大陆的分布和海洋产生的隔离,明显会影响植被带的向北移动.对植被区向北移动的地理限制或者促进将影响将来碳的贮存和释放,以及生物圈与大气之间水和能量的交换.此外,气候变化使受威胁物种数量在各个亚区之间差别很大(白令海地区别尤其是热点),各个植被亚区重新分布的能力差异将影响每个区的生物多样性.总而言之,亚区分析表明,在整个北极地区水平上概括生态系统结构和功能的反应、物种的丧失,以及生物圈对气候系统的反馈的趋势是困难的,说明需要对北极陆地生态系统对于气候变化响应的空间变化性有深刻的认识.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of the fragile site AT Xq27.3 associated with Martin-Bell syndrome

Early prenatal diagnosis of the fragile X was attempted in 44 pregnancies, including one twin pregnancy at risk of Martin-Bell (MB) syndrome. The sex ratio was 24M:21F. The fragile site was reproducibly demonstrated in cultured chorionic villus (CV) cells in eight male and five female fetuses. Six of the male and three of the female fetuses were terminated. Simultaneous RFLP analysis provided confirmative data with flanking DNA markers in 3 of 13 analysed cases. Recombination and/or non-informativeness at available distal and/or proximal loci were found in nine cases. In one male fetus, discordance between the haplotype and cyto-genetics (fragile-X-negative) suggested the presence of a normal male transmitter, a double meiotic cross-over within the region, or a false-negative cytogenetic diagnosis. However, discordance between prenatal and post-termination/postnatal cytogenetic findings was not observed in this series. The use of excess thymidine for induction of the fragile X in cultured CV cells provided in the majority of cases a safe and rapid method for cytogenetic diagnosis, with options for early induced termination in fragile-X-positive pregnancies, for simultaneous RFLP analysis, and for subsequent second-trimester analysis of fetal blood in complicated cases.     

Reserves, resilience and dynamic landscapes

In a world increasingly modified by human activities, the conservation of biodiversity is essential as insurance to maintain resilient ecosystems and ensure a sustainable flow of ecosystem goods and services to society. However, existing reserves and national parks are unlikely to incorporate the long-term and large-scale dynamics of ecosystems. Hence, conservation strategies have to actively incorporate the large areas of land that are managed for human use. For ecosystems to reorganize after large-scale natural and human-induced disturbances, spatial resilience in the form of ecological memory is a prerequisite. The ecological memory is composed of the species, interactions and structures that make ecosystem reorganization possible, and its components may be found within disturbed patches as well in the surrounding landscape. Present static reserves should be complemented with dynamic reserves, such as ecological fallows and dynamic successional reserves, that are part of ecosystem management mimicking natural disturbance regimes at the landscape level.     

Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level

Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.     

Past and Present Permafrost Temperatures in the Abisko Area: Redrilling of Boreholes

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007–2008), new boreholes were drilled within the ‘Back to the Future’ (BTF) and ‘Thermal State of Permafrost’ (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from −0.16 to −0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.     

Comparisons of Measured and Modelled Ozone Deposition to Forests in Northern Europe

The performance of a new dry deposition module, developedfor the European-scale mapping and modelling of ozone flux to vegetation, was tested against micrometeorological ozone and water vapour flux measurements. The measurement data are for twoconiferous (Scots pine in Finland, Norway spruce in Denmark) and one deciduous forest (mountain birch in Finland). On average, themodel performs well for the Scots pine forest, if local inputdata are used. The daytime deposition rates are somewhat over-predicted at the Danish site, especially in the afternoon. The mountain birch data indicate that the generic parameterisationof stomatal responses is not very representative of this northernspecies. The module was also tested by using modelled meteorological data that constitute the input for a photochemical transport model.