Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO₂, followed by tropospheric O₃. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ～1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of ?7%, due to the effects of SO₂ and NOx emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ～15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.     

Modelling Gene Flow between Fields of White Clover with Honeybees as Pollen Vectors

The portion-dilution model is a parametric restatement of the conventional view of animal pollination; it predicts the level of pollinator-mediated gene dispersal. In this study, the model was applied to white clover (Trifolium repens) and its most frequent pollinator, the honeybee (Apis mellifera). One of the three parameters in the portion-dilution model is the mean number of flowers a pollinator visits in one foraging bout. An alternative method to estimate this parameter was developed that was not depending on pollinator hive-seeking behaviour. The new estimation method, based on nectar collection, seems to be a good alternative, when reliable observation on visiting behaviour of pollinators is not possible. The gene flow in white clover was modelled. Where fields were assumed to be well separated, and only a low fraction of bees travelled between fields, the gene flow was estimated to be 0.7%, but subjected to large uncertainty. In a worst case scenario with adjacent fields—one with a genetically modified (GM) T. repens cultivar and the other with a conventional T. repens cultivar—and where all arriving bees were expected to transfer GM pollen, the median gene flow was modelled to be 7% with an estimated 95% percentile of 70%. The results show that the European Union threshold limit of 0.9% GM admixture for food and feed will likely be exceeded at times and especially organic farmers that do not accept GM admixture and often have clover and clover–grass fields might face challenges with admixture of GM.     

PM2.5 Assessment in 21 European Study Centers of ECRHS II: Method and First Winter Results

Abstract

The follow-up of a cohort of adults from 29 European centers of the former European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I (1989–1992) will examine the long-term effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on the incidence, course, and prognosis of respiratory diseases, in particular asthma and decline in lung function. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology and the European-wide quality control program for the collection of particles with 50% cut-off size of 2.5 µm aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5 ) in the ECRHS II and to present the PM_2.5 results from the winter period 2000–2001.

Because PM_2.5 is not routinely monitored in Europe, we measured PM_2.5 mass concentrations in 21 participating centers to estimate background exposure in these cities. A standardized protocol was developed using identical equipment in each center (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Well Impactor Ninety-Six [WINS] and PQ167 from BGI, Inc.). Filters were weighed in a single central laboratory. Sampling was conducted for 7 days per month for a year.

Winter mean PM_2.5 mass concentrations (November 2000–February 2001) varied substantially, with Iceland reporting the lowest value (5 µg/m³) and northern Italy the highest (69 µg/m³). A standardized procedure appropriate for PM_2.5 exposure assessmnt in a multicenter study was developed. We expect ECRHS II to have sufficient variation in exposure to assess long-term effects of air pollution in this cohort. Any bias caused by variation in the characteristics of the chosen monitoring location (e.g., proximity to traffic sources) will be addressed in later analyses. Given the homogenous spatial distribution of PM_2.5 , however, concentrations measured near traffic are not expected to differ substantially from those measured at urban background sites.     

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of PCDD, PCDF, and PCB in pine and spruce shoots

In Germany, there is a lack of consistent and comparable data for the time dependent behaviour and spatial distribution of dioxin-like and indicator PCB in ambient air, deposition and plants. The aim of this study was to improve the data on PCDD/PCDF, dioxin-like PCB and non dioxin-like PCB in spruce and pine shoots from different locations and years by retrospective monitoring. The survey was conducted with archived samples of one-year old spruce shoots (Picea abies) and pine shoots (Pinus sylvestris) from the German environmental specimen bank. Two sets of samples from locations in urbanized areas in western and eastern Germany (Warndt and Duebener Heide Mitte, respectively) were investigated as time series. Additionally, spruce shoots from seven different rural locations sampled in the years 2000-2004 were analyzed in order to get an overview about the spatial distribution of PCB and PCDD/PCDF. The analytical results of the samples from the two urbanized areas clearly show that the atmospheric contamination with PCDD and PCDF has declined by about 75% between 1985 and 1997 at Warndt and about 40% between 1991 and 1997 at Duebener Heide. However, concentrations stayed virtually constant at both locations from 1997 to 2004 at a level of about 1 ng WHO-TEQ/kg dry matter (d.m.). Similarly, the investigation of spruce shoots from rural locations from 2000 to 2004 did not reveal a temporal trend at any site. PCDD/PCDF levels were between 0.1 and 1.0 ng WHO-TEQ/kg d.m. At the urbanized location Warndt the six indicator PCB as well as the 12 dioxin-like PCB according to WHO revealed a significant decline by more than 75% between 1985 and 1999. Thereafter, PCB levels stayed virtually constant. At the location Duebener Heide an overall decrease of PCB concentrations in pine shoots of about 60% was detected between 1991 and 2004. Spruce shoots from all locations showed a relevant contribution of dioxin-like PCB to the total WHO toxicity equivalent (PCDD/PCDF+PCB). In most samples, the contribution of dioxin-like PCB was between 21% and 41%. The TEQ contribution of PCB in the samples from three rural sites was higher and similar to the TEQ value of PCDD/PCDF. The investigated pine shoots from the urbanized site Duebener Heide showed a 15-28% contribution of dioxin-like PCB to total TEQ and thus lower than in spruce shoots from different locations. In all samples except one PCB 126 contributed to more than 80% to the PCB-TEQ.     

Bioaccumulation of per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in selected species from the Barents Sea food web

The present study reports concentrations and biomagnification potential of per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in species from the Barents Sea food web. The examined species included sea ice amphipod (Gammarus wilkitzkii), polar cod (Boreogadus saida), black guillemot (Cepphus grylle) and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus). These were analyzed for PFAS, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant of the detected PFAS. Trophic levels and food web transfer of PFAS were determined using stable nitrogen isotopes (delta(15)N). No correlation was found between PFOS concentrations and trophic level within species. However, a non-linear relationship was established when the entire food web was analyzed. Biomagnification factors displayed values >1 for perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), PFOS and SigmaPFAS(7). Multivariate analyses showed that the degree of trophic transfer of PFAS is similar to that of PCB, DDT and PBDE, despite their accumulation through different pathways.     

Adaptive Capacity in Community Forest Management: A Systematic Review of Studies in East Asia

Environmental Management - This study investigated the indicators of adaptive capacity along with disturbances in community forest management systems in the East Asian countries, China, Japan and...     

Early prenatal direct gene diagnosis of cystic fibrosis in a twin pregnancy and subsequent selective termination

We present a case of prenatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF) in one twin at 11–12 weeks of gestation. The parents had previously had two children, one of whom is alive and healthy and one who died of CF at the age of 2½ months. The parents were both known to be carriers of the ΔF508 mutation. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed and direct gene analysis showed that one fetus was homozygous for the ΔF508 mutation, while the other fetus did not have the mutation at all. Both fetuses had normal karyotypes. Selective termination was subsequently performed. The pregnancy continued without complications except for mild pre-eclampsia at term. The woman had a Caesarean section. The genetic diagnosis was confirmed after birth.     

Disaccharidase deficiency in amniotic fluid from cases of cystic fibrosis

The activities of the disaccharidases maltase and sucrase in 4 amniotic fluid from cystic fibrosis (CF) pregnancies have been compared to those of 120 non CF-pregnancies. Very low levels were found in 3 of the CF-fluids. The fourth CF-fluid was normal in all measured microvillar enzyme activities. Elevated levels of disaccharidases in meconium from one of the patients born with CF, supports the idea that these enzymes are trapped in the intestinal cavity by sticky meconium.     

Effective biological control of Salvinia molesta in the Senegal River by means of the weevil Cyrtobagous salviniae

The invasion of Salvinia molesta in the Lower Senegal River Delta in Mauritania and Senegal in 1999 posed a serious threat to the socioeconomic conditions of the local people as well as to wetland biodiversity. Eventually, an effective biological control of S. molesta was obtained by means of the weevil Cyrtobagous salviniae, which was introduced in the river in Senegal and Mauritania in May 2000 and in Senegal in April 2001. In October 2001, it became apparent that the weevils were doing a magnificent job. The color of the plants was turning from green to dark-brown or black, and subsequently the plants started to sink to the bottom. Detailed monitoring of the dispersal of C. salviniae in November-December 2001 confirmed the visual observations of the outcome of biological control. In April 2002, it could be concluded that S. molesta was no longer a problem in the Senegal River.