Factors affecting the severity of injuries among young motorcyclists--a Swedish nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To determine factors affecting the severity of motorcycle injuries, considering variables related to the individual, the environment, the vehicle, and the crash. METHODS: This is a register-based retrospective cohort study. All individuals born in 1970-1972 (n = 334,070) were extracted from the Swedish Population and Housing Census of 1985 and followed up from 1988 to 2000, when aged 16-30. All subjects whose records indicated an injury as a motorcycle driver in the Swedish National Road Administration Accident Database were selected, and constituted the study population (n = 1,748). Factors related to the individual, the environment, the vehicle, and the crash were considered as exposure measures, whereas the outcome measure was the level of injury severity, based on assessments made on-site by police officers, in two categories: fatal/severe and minor. Associations between individual, environmental, vehicle and crash factors and injury severity were measured, using Chi-square, and through univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: Factors such as alcohol consumption, traffic environment, speed limit, and type of crash were significantly associated (p < 0.0001) with injury severity. More specifically, a positive suspicion of alcohol consumption, driving in a rural area, and a posted speed limit over 50 km/hour were all factors positively associated (OR > 1.0) with the likelihood of being severely injured. On modeling all the variables together through stepwise logistic regression, positive suspicion of alcohol emerged as the strongest determinant (adjusted OR = 2.7) of a severe outcome. CONCLUSIONS. Motorcycle crashes still place a heavy burden on young drivers. Increased efforts are needed to prevent alcohol-related crashes-through law enforcement and a multiplicity of policies at local and national levels.     

Field-scale variation in microbial activity and soil properties in relation to mineralization and sorption of pesticides in a sandy soil

Pesticides applied to agricultural soils are subject to environmental concerns because leaching to groundwater reservoirs and aquatic habitats may occur. Knowledge of field variation of pesticide-related parameters is required to evaluate the vulnerability of pesticide leaching. The mineralization and sorption of the pesticides glyphosate and metribuzin and the pesticide degradation product triazinamin in a field were measured and compared with the field-scale variation of geochemical and microbiological parameters. We focused on the soil parameters clay and organic carbon (C) content and on soil respiratory and enzymatic processes and microbial biomass. These parameters were measured in soil samples taken at two depths (Ap and Bs horizon) in 51 sampling points from a 4-ha agricultural fine sandy soil field. The results indicated that the spatial variation of the soil parameters, and in particular the content of organic C, had a major influence on the variability of the microbial parameters and on sorption and pesticide mineralization in the soil. For glyphosate, with a co-metabolic pathway for degradation, the mineralization was increased in soils with high microbial activity. The spatial variability, expressed as the CV, was about five times higher in the Bs horizon than in the Ap horizon, and the local-scale variation within 100 m(2) areas were two to three times lower than the field-scale variation within the entire field of about 4 ha.     

Climate vs. soil factors in local adaptation of two common plant species

Evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes. To understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection. At a continental scale, variation in climate can be important while at a local scale soil properties could also play a role. We designed an experiment aimed to disentangle the role of climate and (abiotic and biotic) soil properties in local adaptation of two common plant species. A grass (Holcus lanatus) and a legume (Lotus corniculatus), as well as their local soils, were reciprocally transplanted between three sites across an Atlantic-Continental gradient in Europe and grown in common gardens in either their home soil or foreign soils. Growth and reproductive traits were measured over two growing seasons. In both species, we found significant environmental and genetic effects on most of the growth and reproductive traits and a significant interaction between the two environmental effects of soil and climate. The grass species showed significant home site advantage in most of the fitness components, which indicated adaptation to climate. We found no indication that the grass was adapted to local soil conditions. The legume showed a significant home soil advantage for number of fruits only and thus a weak indication of adaptation to soil and no adaptation to climate. Our results show that the importance of climate and soil factors as drivers of local adaptation is species-dependent. This could be related to differences in interactions between plant species and soil biota.     

Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future     

Modification of hosts' behavior by a parasite: field evidence for adaptive manipulation

Parasites relying on trophic transmission to complete their life cycles often induce modifications of their host's behavior in ways that may increase their susceptibility to predation by final hosts. These modifications have often been interpreted as parasite adaptations, but very few studies have demonstrated that host manipulation has fitness benefits for the parasite. The aim of the present study was to address the adaptive significance of parasite manipulation by coupling observations of behavioral manipulation to estimates of trophic transmission to the definitive host in the natural environment. We show that the acanthocephalan parasite Pomphorhynchus laevis manipulates the drifting behavior of one of its intermediate hosts, the amphipod Gammarus pulex, but not of a sympatric host, the introduced amphipod Gammarus roeseli. We found a 26.3-28.3 times higher proportion of infected G. pulex in the stomach content of one of the definitive hosts of P. laevis, the bullhead Cottus gobio, than in the benthos. No such trend was observed for G. roeseli. The bell-shaped curve of mean parasite abundance (MPA) relative to host size observed in G. pulex also supported an increased predation mortality of P. laevis-infected individuals compared to uninfected amphipods. Again, no such pattern was observed in G. roeseli. Furthermore, our results indicate that the modifications induced by P. laevis are specific to the definitive host and do not increase the risk of predation by inappropriate hosts, here the adult edible frog Rana esculenta. Overall, our study is original in that it establishes, under field conditions, a direct link between parasitic manipulation and increased transmission to the definitive host, and more importantly, identifies the specificity of the manipulation both in the intermediate host species and toward the definitive host.     

Projecting Canadian Prairie Runoff for 2041–2070 with North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Data

The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta, Canada, is semiarid and under severe water stress due to increasing human demands. We present the first examination of projected changes in SSRB runoff from a large set of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program regional climate models (RCMs) plus one Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment RCM. We used six different runoff estimation methods: total surface and subsurface runoff (total runoff), surface runoff, and four estimations based on Budyko functions. Most RCM estimations showed substantial biases and distribution differences when compared to observed data; thus bias correction was necessary. Total runoff was the best of the six variables in modeling observed runoff for each of the four SSRB subbasins. Projected total runoff for 2041–2070 shows a geographic gradient in the SSRB, with possible drying in the southern Oldman River subbasin and possible increased runoff in the northernmost Red Deer River subbasin. A shift to an earlier spring peak in runoff and drier late summer, with a need for increased irrigation, should be expected. In a first examination of the important question of projected changes in interannual variability, we show increasing magnitude. This result further adds to adaptation challenges over the course of this century in this basin, which is already largely closed to further allocation.     

Do exurban communities want more development?

Most land-use surveys of exurban residents focus on eliciting preferences for residential development and open space conservation. This article, in contrast, reports on a stated preference study of exurban residents that assesses the relative attractiveness of a variety of commercial and recreational land uses. Focus group participants and town planners proclaimed a demand for certain commercial services such as modern grocery stores and fine-dining restaurants, but survey respondents generally exhibit a strong preference for no additional development beyond the current rate of development. Results show that if additional development is to occur, then recreational services are generally preferred over more traditional commercial development. Combining two commercial services in a single development project are strongly preferred to stand-alone developments. Our approach illustrates how planners may uncover misconceptions about and priorities for land conversion through examining residents’ preferences.