Neural Network Input Selection for Hydrological Forecasting Affected by Snowmelt1

Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km²) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (Q_SM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and Q_SM failed to improve the networks.     

Do trans-Pacific air masses deliver PBDEs to coastal British Columbia, Canada?

In order to distinguish between ‘local’ and ‘background’ sources of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in coastal British Columbia (Canada) air, we collected samples from two sites: a remote site on western Vancouver Island, and a near-urban site in the Strait of Georgia. Seasonally-integrated samples of vapor, particulate, and rain were collected continuously during 365 days for analysis of 275 PCB and PBDE congeners. While deposition of the legacy PCBs was similar at both sampling sites, deposition of PBDEs at the remote site amounted to 42% (10.4 mg/ha/year) of that at the near-urban site. Additional research into atmospheric circulation in the NE Pacific Ocean will provide more insight into the transport and fate of priority pollutants in this region, but trans-Pacific delivery of PBDEs to the west coast of North America may underlie in part our observations. For example, approximately 40% of >12,000 ten-day back trajectories calculated for the remote site originated over Asia, compared to only 2% over North America.     

Modification of hosts' behavior by a parasite: field evidence for adaptive manipulation

Parasites relying on trophic transmission to complete their life cycles often induce modifications of their host's behavior in ways that may increase their susceptibility to predation by final hosts. These modifications have often been interpreted as parasite adaptations, but very few studies have demonstrated that host manipulation has fitness benefits for the parasite. The aim of the present study was to address the adaptive significance of parasite manipulation by coupling observations of behavioral manipulation to estimates of trophic transmission to the definitive host in the natural environment. We show that the acanthocephalan parasite Pomphorhynchus laevis manipulates the drifting behavior of one of its intermediate hosts, the amphipod Gammarus pulex, but not of a sympatric host, the introduced amphipod Gammarus roeseli. We found a 26.3-28.3 times higher proportion of infected G. pulex in the stomach content of one of the definitive hosts of P. laevis, the bullhead Cottus gobio, than in the benthos. No such trend was observed for G. roeseli. The bell-shaped curve of mean parasite abundance (MPA) relative to host size observed in G. pulex also supported an increased predation mortality of P. laevis-infected individuals compared to uninfected amphipods. Again, no such pattern was observed in G. roeseli. Furthermore, our results indicate that the modifications induced by P. laevis are specific to the definitive host and do not increase the risk of predation by inappropriate hosts, here the adult edible frog Rana esculenta. Overall, our study is original in that it establishes, under field conditions, a direct link between parasitic manipulation and increased transmission to the definitive host, and more importantly, identifies the specificity of the manipulation both in the intermediate host species and toward the definitive host.     

Factors affecting the severity of injuries among young motorcyclists--a Swedish nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To determine factors affecting the severity of motorcycle injuries, considering variables related to the individual, the environment, the vehicle, and the crash. METHODS: This is a register-based retrospective cohort study. All individuals born in 1970-1972 (n = 334,070) were extracted from the Swedish Population and Housing Census of 1985 and followed up from 1988 to 2000, when aged 16-30. All subjects whose records indicated an injury as a motorcycle driver in the Swedish National Road Administration Accident Database were selected, and constituted the study population (n = 1,748). Factors related to the individual, the environment, the vehicle, and the crash were considered as exposure measures, whereas the outcome measure was the level of injury severity, based on assessments made on-site by police officers, in two categories: fatal/severe and minor. Associations between individual, environmental, vehicle and crash factors and injury severity were measured, using Chi-square, and through univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: Factors such as alcohol consumption, traffic environment, speed limit, and type of crash were significantly associated (p < 0.0001) with injury severity. More specifically, a positive suspicion of alcohol consumption, driving in a rural area, and a posted speed limit over 50 km/hour were all factors positively associated (OR > 1.0) with the likelihood of being severely injured. On modeling all the variables together through stepwise logistic regression, positive suspicion of alcohol emerged as the strongest determinant (adjusted OR = 2.7) of a severe outcome. CONCLUSIONS. Motorcycle crashes still place a heavy burden on young drivers. Increased efforts are needed to prevent alcohol-related crashes-through law enforcement and a multiplicity of policies at local and national levels.     

The effect of grazing on biodiversity in coastal dune heathlands

The effect of sheep grazing on species richness, higher order diversity measures, inequality, species composition, functional diversity and allometric relationships at a coastal dune heathland site was investigated. After a prescribed fire in 2002, the site was divided into two parts, where one of the parts was unmanaged and the other part was fenced and grazed by sheep. Sheep grazing had a positive effect on species richness as well as a significant positive effect on the functional diversity at the coastal dune heathland site. Generally, the cover of dwarf shrubs was negatively affected by grazing, whereas the cover of sedges and grasses was positively affected by grazing. There is a need for comparative investigations of the effect of different management methods not only on floristic biodiversity, but on all relevant kinds of biodiversity as well as on soil structure, soil chemistry and habitat micro- and macrostructure. Consequently, we advocate the initiation of an international systematic investigation of the effect of different management methods.     

Prenatally diagnosed non-immune hydrops caused by congenital transient leukaemia

Congenital transient leukaemia (CTL) is a haematological disorder characterized by proliferation of myeloblasts within the bone marrow and peripheral blood of affected newborns. Infants with Down syndrome are most frequently affected and although the disorder can result in fetal death due to hydrops, it typically resolves spontaneously after birth. We present a case of prenatally diagnosed fetal hydrops accompanied by splenomegaly and an enlarged, echogenic liver in a fetus identified with CTL after birth.     

Thiourea leaching of gold from processed municipal solid waste incineration residues

Incineration is one of the key technologies in disposal of municipal waste, which produces municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) residues with high valuable metal contents. The recycling strategy for the MSWI residues is typically focused on the recovery of scrap metals yielding processed municipal solid waste incineration residues (PIR) as the main byproduct. However, the PIR still contains valuable metals, particularly gold, which cannot be extracted by conventional methods. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of using the 0.5–2.0 mm grain size fraction of PIR containing 28.82 ± 1.62 mg/kg of gold as raw material for a two-stage extraction process. In the first stage the alkalic fine-grained PIR was acidified with a solution of 20% (v/v) of HCl-containing flue gas cleaning liquid that is obtained by the municipal waste incineration plant itself as a waste product. In the second stage we leached the acidified fine-grained PIR by thiourea with Fe³⁺ as an oxidant. Application of the thiourea-Fe³⁺ leaching system resulted in recovery of 16.4 ± 1.56 mg/kg of gold from the fine-grained PIR within 6 h of incubation. Due to high gold market prices, upscaling of the suggested technology can represent a suitable strategy for gold recovery from PIR and other MSWI residues.

     

Plant volatiles affect oviposition by codling moths

Summary. Oviposition in wild codling moth females, collected as overwintering larvae from apple, pear and walnut, was stimulated by volatiles from fruit-bearing green branches of these respective hostplants. Analysis of headspace collections showed that eight compounds present in apple, pear and walnut elicited a reliable antennal response in codling moth females: (E)--ocimene, 4,8-dimethyl-1,(E)3,7-nonatriene, (Z)3-hexenyl acetate, nonanal, -caryophyllene, germacrene D, (E,E)--farnesene, and methyl salicylate. Any one of these compounds is found in many other non-host plants, and host recognition in codling moth is thus likely encoded by a blend of volatiles. A large variation in the blend proportion of these compounds released from apple, pear and walnut suggests a considerable plasticity in the female response to host plant odours. Wild females, collected as overwintering larvae in the field, laid significantly fewer eggs in the absence of host plant volatiles. The offspring of these females, however, reared on a semi-artificial diet in the laboratory, laid as many eggs with or without plant volatile stimulus. Tests with individual females showed that this rapid change in oviposition behaviour may be explained by selection for females which oviposit in the absence of odour stimuli, rather than by preimaginal conditioning of insects when rearing them on semi-artificial diet. Oviposition bioassays using laboratory-reared females are therefore not suitable to identify the volatile compounds which stimulate egglaying in wild females.