A STATISTICAL SIMULATION TECHNIQUE FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MONTHLY PRECIPITATION1

A 30-year record of monthly precipitation for Northern New Jersey was analyzed for its statistical components. With a weak annual periodicity eliminated, the series was found to be random. The data for each month were fit with a gamma distribution using Thom's suggested best estimates of the distribution parameters. A one-thousand-year simulated monthly precipitation series was generated using random values from the twelve gamma distributions. The statistical properties of the simulated and sample time series agreed well. Numerous anomalous precipitation regimes were observed in the simulated data.     

WATER RESOURCES AND SOCIAL CHOICES1

ABSTRACT The problem of water resources management can be viewed as one requiring the existence and application of some type of “collective decision” mechanism. Currently, the general water resource decision problem is solved using an “individual decision” format without explicit consideration of the dominant social decision system. This paper demonstrates the need for blending technical planning activities with organized societal processes and then proposes a specific public decision framework to satisfy this requirement. The key element in this planning framework is a generalized “bargaining arena” which serves to link technical activities with the social system. Using this bargaining device we can (1) specify policy at a local level, (2) incorporate “social decision” rules into the planning process, and (3) provide local access to the decision process. A simple case of regional water quality management is used to describe the application of this planning procedure and to offer encouragement for successful use in more complex real-world cases.     

Advancing the use of an innovative cleanup technology: Case study of Lasagna™

Originated from a recognized need for significantly more effective technologies for soil cleanup, the Lasagna^TM project provides an interesting case study in which industry, government, and academia successfully collaborated to rapidly advance the technology from the laboratory to the field. Called Lasagna^TM because of its layered configurations, the technology combines electrically induced contaminant transport in soils, treatment in place, and geotechnical methods to achieve completely in situ clean-up of contaminated soils. Experiences with respect to the partnership, the development of technology and its current commercialization status are described.     

Environmental behavior of explosives in groundwater from the Milan Army Ammunition Plant in aquatic and wetland plant treatments. Uptake and fate of TNT and RDX in plants

Uptake and fate of TNT and RDX by three aquatic and four wetland plants were studied using hydroponic, batch, incubations in explosives-contaminated groundwater amended with [U-14C]-TNT or [U-14C]-RDX in the laboratory. Substrates in which the plants were rooted were also tested. Plants and substrates were collected from a small-scale wetland constructed for explosives removal, and groundwater originated from a local aquifer at the Milan Army Ammunition Plant. This study demonstrated rapid uptake of [U-14C]-TNT derived 14C, concentration at the uptake sites and limited transport in all plants. Per unit of mass, uptake was higher in submersed than in emergent species. Biotransformation of TNT had occurred in all plant treatments after 7-day incubation in 1.6 to 3.4 mg TNT L-i, with labeled amino-dinitrotoluenes (ADNTs), three unidentified compounds unique for plants, and mostly polar products as results. Biotransformation occurred also in the substrates, yielding labeled ADNT, one unidentified compound unique for substrates, and polar products. TNT was not recovered by HPLC in plants and substrates after incubation. Uptake of [U-14C]-RDX derived 14C in plants was slower than that of TNT, transport was substantial, and concentration occurred at sites where new plant material was synthesized. As for TNT, uptake per unit of mass was higher in submersed than in emergent species. Biotransformation of RDX had occurred in all plant treatments after 13-day incubation in 1.5 mg RDX L-1, with one unidentified compound unique for plants, and mostly polar products as results. Biotransformation had occurred also in the substrates, but to a far lower extent than in plants. Substrates and plants had one unidentified 14C-RDX metabolite in common. HPLC analysis confirmed the presence of RDX in most plants and in three out of four substrates at the end of the incubation period.     

Public nutrition from an approach to a discipline: concern's nutrition case studies in complex emergencies

The Public Nutrition approach, like that of Public Health, is context specific. It places an emphasis on populations rather than individuals and is inter-disciplinary in nature. Both approaches seek to understand the complex aetiology of a clinical outcome such as malnutrition within the widest possible framework. Public Nutrition uses the UNICEF conceptual framework and adapts and expands it. The authors of this article argue--through the examination of a number of case studies taken from the work of Concern Worldwide (hereafter referred to as Concern) in southern Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania and DRC--that there are two critical constituents of the Public Nutrition approach. These are: a contextual analysis (including the use of surveillance information for programme design and advocacy) and community involvement at all stages of the project cycle. Some of the key obstacles to the adoption of the Public Nutrition approach are identified by illustrating two practical programme settings. For the Public Nutrition approach to be more widely used, the authors recommend a number of key strategies including the further dissemination of case studies and the clarification of the scope and boundaries of the approach. These strategies will enable Public Nutrition to evolve both as a practical programme framework as well as an academic discipline.     

Contour Farming Based on Natural Vegetative Strips: Expanding the Scope for Increased Food Crop Production on Sloping Lands in Asia

In the agriculture of the future, there is a compelling place for agroecologically-based practices alongside practices based on the best available chemical, genetic, and engineering components. This paper explores this issue in the context of the development and spread of a conservation farming system based on natural vegetative contour buffer strips in smallholder production systems in southeast Asia. Farmers adapted contour hedgerow farming practices into a simpler, buffer-strip system as a labor-saving measure to conserve soil and sustain yields on steeply sloping cropland in Claveria, Mindanao, Philippines. Permanent-ridge tillage systems were also adapted to smallholder farming systems by researchers. Natural vegetative buffer strips resulted in gradually increasing yields, with an estimated benefit of 0.5t/ha/crop. They were seen to increase land values, facilitate investment in more intensive and profitable cropping systems, and expand the land base for food crop agriculture. They induced an institutional innovation of farmer-led Landcare organizations, which have spread this and other agroforestry practices to thousands of households in the southern Philippines.     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Rapid interphase analysis for prenatal diagnosis of translocation carriers using subtelomeric probes

Interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) has become an accepted laboratory technique for the rapid and preliminary prenatal assessment of chromosome aneuploidy. The introduction of subtelomeric FISH probes now allows for the molecular–cytogenetic analysis of terminal chromosome rearrangements. In a prospective study, we examined the prenatal use of subtelomeric probes on interphase cells to rapidly detect the carrier status of a fetus when a parent carried a known reciprocal or Robertsonian chromosome translocation. Three of the cases were identified as being abnormal. All cases were confirmed by routine cytogenetic analysis. These findings clearly demonstrated the utility of this technique and these probes to rapidly and correctly identify balanced and unbalanced chromosome anomalies of a fetus that could result from parental translocations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pharmacokinetic model of dioxin and furan levels in adipose tissue from Sawmill work involving chlorophenate fungicides

Sawmill workers in British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, have been exposed to chlorophenate fungicides which are known to be contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs). Due to concern about the potential of these workers to have significant body burdens of PCDD/Fs, and the absence of measurements in these worker, a single-compartment pharmacokinetic model was developed to estimate the concentration of PCDD/Fs in the fat tissue of the sawmill workers. Data from a large cohort of B.C. sawmill workers and literature-based data on chlorophenate exposures and PCDD/F concentrations in chlorophenates were used in Monte Carlo simulations to predict a PCDD/F body burden distribution. The median concentrations of HxCDF and HpCDF predicted using the model for the B.C. sawmill worker population exceeded the range measured in unexposed populations. PeCDF and OCDF concentrations exceeded the range measured in unexposed populations at the 70th percentile of the model-predicted distribution, and PeCDD at the 90th percentile. The primary limitation of the model was the scarcity of input data about actual dermal and inhalation exposures to chlorophenates.     

Regional investigations of soil and overburden analysis and plant uptake of metals

Regional studies on the bioavailability of metals at native and disturbed sites were conducted over the past seven years by the USGS. The work was concentrated in the Fort Union, Powder River, and Green River coal resource regions where measures of extractable metals in soils were found to have limited use in predicting metal levels in plants.Correlations between Cu, Fe, and Zn in plants and extractable (DTPA, EDTA, and oxalate) or total levels in native A- and C-horizons of soil were occasionally significant. A simple linear model is generally not adequate, however, in estimating element uptake by plants. Prediction capabilities were improved when a number of soil chemical and physical parameters were included as independent variables in a stepwise linear multiple regression analysis; however, never more than 54% of the total variability in the data was explained by the equations for these metals. Soil pH was the most important variable relating soil chemistry to plant chemistry. This relation was always positive and apparently a response to soil levels of metal carbonates and not Fe and Mn oxides. Studies that compared the metal uptake by rehabilitation species to extractable (DTPA) metal levels in mice soils produced similar results.