Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

为了有效地控制波罗的海的污染:对当前一些污染减排政策失败的剖析及建议

我们应用生态-经济学模型,研究了波罗的海国家关于将每一个国家的营养物质排放总量减少一半的宣言.这一模型包括以国家为基础的减排污染物费用函数和描述磷和氮如何从一国流动到另一国的转移系数(由波罗的海水文学模型估算而得).结果表明,就氮而言,目前的减排政策和成本一效益政策相比,减排费用非常高,而且各国受益不平衡.可以预料,那些减排边际成本高的国家,其执行上述减排协定以及对氮的减排投资的兴趣不会太大,这一结论已被我们的数据所证实=因此,我们建议并概要地提出一种联合执行政策,以使减排具有成本效益并鼓励进行减排投资.     

Renewable Resources in an Overlapping Generations Economy Without Capital

We incorporate a renewable resource into an overlapping generations model without capital and with quasi-linear preferences. Besides being an input for production the resource serves as a store of value. We characterize the dynamics, efficiency, and stability of the steady-state equilibria. The stability properties are sensitive to the type of resource growth. For constant growth there is only one steady-state equilibrium which is stable and efficient. In the general case of the concave growth function, there are usually at least two steady-state equilibria, one of which is stable and the other one unstable. The unstable steady state is efficient, but the stable one may or may not be. We study the robustness of our results by assuming a logarithmic utility function. We show that for the Cobb–Douglas production function the steady state is unique and stable regardless of whether the equilibrium is efficient or inefficient. Our analytical results are illustrated by numerical calculations.     

Biological Activity in a Heavily Organohalogen-Contaminated River Sediment (8 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different (chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web. In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic bioremediation processes. Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively. The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF) or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing. Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination. A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis (p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence. Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast, the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation. Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment. Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de)     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.     

Yield and grain quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) was exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers for two growing seasons, 1987 and 1988, at a site located in south-west Sweden. The chambers were placed in a field of commercially grown spring wheat. The treatments were charcoal-filtered air (CF), non-filtered air (NF) and non-filtered air plus extra ozone (NF(+)). In 1988, one additional ozone concentration (NF(++)) was used. Grain yield was affected by the ozone concentration of the air. Air filtration resulted in an increase in grain yield of about 7% in both years, compared to NF. The addition of ozone (NF(+), NF(++)) reduced grain yield and increased the content of crude protein of the grain in both years. Filtration of the air had no significant effect on the content of crude protein, compared to NF. The results showed a strong positive chamber effect on grain yield in the cold and wet summer of 1987. In 1988, there was no net chamber effect on grain yield. The relative differences between the CF, NF and NF(+) treatments with respect to grain yield were of the same magnitude in the two years, despite the very different weather conditions.     

Effects of acid rain on growth and nutrient concentrations in Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings grown in a nutrient-rich soil

The effects of artificially applied acid precipitation on growth and nutrient concentrations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) seedlings were investigated in a long-term acid irrigation experiment in field conditions. Seedlings of northern and southern origin were planted in boxes containing peat and composted soil rich in nutrients, and sprinkler irrigated with water acidified with nitric and sulphuric acids to pH 3 or pH 4 for periods varying from two to three and a half growing seasons during 1986-1989. Water irrigated (pH 5.4-7.6) and non-irrigated groups of seedlings were also included in the experiment. At the end of the experiment needles, main and lateral shoots and roots were collected from the seedlings for the determination of height growth and biomass partitioning, and for the analysis of S, N, Mg, P, K, Ca, Mn and Fe concentrations. The treatment effects compared to the irrigated control were studied using multivariate analyses of variance and covariance. In the pine seedlings the total dry matter production increased by 25-70% compared with the irrigated controls when the total wet deposition to the seedlings exceeded 67 kg S ha(-1) and 36 kg N ha(-1) (e.g. after two growing seasons' exposure of the pH 3 treatment). The increase was mainly due to an increase in needle dry weight (54-72% greater at pH 3) and root weight (20-65% greater at pH 3), whereas the height growth or shoot weight growth were less affected. The northern provenance pine seedlings responded more clearly to the pH 3 irrigation than the southern ones. The treatments had no consistent effects on any of the growth variables studied in the spruce seedlings, however. The pines had higher root and foliage Ca concentrations as a result of the acid irrigation, whereas in spruce, acid rain decreased the Ca concentration in needles and shoots. Root Mn and Fe concentrations were higher in both species as a result of the pH 3 treatment. A higher soil conductivity and Ca concentration resulted from the prolonged pH 3 treatment. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the long-term growth and nutrient allocation response of conifers to acid precipitation is dependent both on the tree species and on the nutritional status of the soil.