A comparison of statistical methods for deriving freshwater quality criteria for the protection of aquatic organisms

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly used in both ecological risk assessment and derivation of water quality criteria. However, there has been debate about the choice of an appropriate approach for derivation of water quality criteria based on SSDs because the various methods can generate different values. The objective of this study was to compare the differences among various methods. Data sets of acute toxicities of 12 substances to aquatic organisms, representing a range of classes with different modes of action, were studied. Nine typical statistical approaches, including parametric and nonparametric methods, were used to construct SSDs for 12 chemicals. Water quality criteria, expressed as hazardous concentration for 5 % of species (HC₅), were derived by use of several approaches. All approaches produced comparable results, and the data generated by the different approaches were significantly correlated. Variability among estimates of HC₅ of all inclusive species decreased with increasing sample size, and variability was similar among the statistical methods applied. Of the statistical methods selected, the bootstrap method represented the best-fitting model for all chemicals, while log-triangle and Weibull were the best models among the parametric methods evaluated. The bootstrap method was the primary choice to derive water quality criteria when data points are sufficient (more than 20). If the available data are few, all other methods should be constructed, and that which best describes the distribution of the data was selected.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Impact of genetic diversity and inbreeding on the life-history of Chironomus midges over consecutive generations

We report results of a multigenerational experiment with Chironomus riparius. Two strains with a high and a low level of genetic variability were exposed to a low, environmentally relevant TBT concentration of 80 μg Sn kg⁻¹ sediment dw nominally (time weighted mean, based on measured concentrations: 4.5 μg Sn kg⁻¹ sediment dw), and various life history traits as well as genetic diversity were monitored for eleven consecutive generations. While TBT effects are hardly visible in the outbred and genetically diverse strain, the inbred and genetically impoverished strain shows a clearly reduced population growth rate compared to the control. Moreover, the impoverished strain shows an increase in fitness over time. Analyses of variation at five microsatellite loci revealed that the level of genetic variation is strongly reduced in the inbred compared to the outbred strain. Moreover, genetic diversity increases over time in the inbred strain. This finding explains the observed increase in fitness in both inbred lineages (control and TBT exposed). The results document that inbreeding and the level of genetic diversity might be of crucial importance in populations under pollution stress. Furthermore, ecotoxicological bioassays have to consider genetic diversity if results between laboratories should be comparable. Our data provides evidence that genetic diversity strongly contributes to the survival of a population exposed to chemical pollution.     

Monitoring of hexabromocyclododecane diastereomers in fish from European freshwaters and estuaries

Background and aims  

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a brominated flame retardant used mainly in polystyrene foam as well as in textile applications. In recent years, measures were taken to reduce HBCD emissions during its production and use. To evaluate the efficacy of these measures, a monitoring project was initiated with fish as bioaccumulation indicators.     

Ammonium and nitrate tolerance in lichens

Since lichens lack roots and take up water, solutes and gases over the entire thallus surface, these organisms respond more sensitively to changes in atmospheric purity than vascular plants. After centuries where effects of sulphur dioxide and acidity were in the focus of research on atmospheric chemistry and lichens, recently the globally increased levels of ammonia and nitrate increasingly affect lichen vegetation and gave rise to intense research on the tolerance of lichens to nitrogen pollution. The present paper discusses the main findings on the uptake of ammonia and nitrate in the lichen symbiosis and to the tolerance of lichens to eutrophication. Ammonia and nitrate are both efficiently taken up under ambient conditions. The tolerance to high nitrogen levels depends, among others, on the capability of the photobiont to provide sufficient amounts of carbon skeletons for ammonia assimilation. Lowly productive lichens are apparently predisposed to be sensitive to excess nitrogen.     

The contribution of ship emissions to air pollution in the North Sea regions

As a consequence of the global distribution of manufacturing sites and the increasing international division of labour, ship traffic is steadily increasing and is becoming more and more important as an origin of air pollution.This study investigates the impact of ship emissions in coastal areas of the North Sea under conditions of the year 2000 by means of a regional chemistry transport model which runs on a sufficiently high resolution to study air pollution in coastal regions. It was found that northern Germany and Denmark in summer suffer from more than 50% higher sulphate, nitrate and ammonium aerosol concentrations due to contributions from ships. The implementation of a sulphur emission control area (SECA) in the North Sea, as it was implemented at the end of 2007, directly results in reduced sulphur dioxide and sulphate aerosol concentrations while nitrate aerosol concentrations are slightly increased.     

Integrated methodology for assessing the HCH groundwater pollution at the multi-source contaminated mega-site Bitterfeld/Wolfen

A large-scale groundwater contamination characterises the Pleistocene groundwater system of the former industrial and abandoned mining region Bitterfeld/Wolfen, Eastern Germany. For more than a century, local chemical production and extensive lignite mining caused a complex contaminant release from local production areas and related dump sites. Today, organic pollutants (mainly organochlorines) are present in all compartments of the environment at high concentration levels. An integrated methodology for characterising the current situation of pollution as well as the future fate development of hazardous substances is highly required to decide on further management and remediation strategies. Data analyses have been performed on regional groundwater monitoring data from about 10 years, containing approximately 3,500 samples, and up to 180 individual organic parameters from almost 250 observation wells. Run-off measurements as well as water samples were taken biweekly from local creeks during a period of 18 months. A kriging interpolation procedure was applied on groundwater analytics to generate continuous distribution patterns of the nodal contaminant samples. High-resolution geological 3-D modelling serves as a database for a regional 3-D groundwater flow model. Simulation results support the future fate assessment of contaminants. A first conceptual model of the contamination has been developed to characterise the contamination in regional surface waters and groundwater. A reliable explanation of the variant hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) occurrence within the two local aquifer systems has been derived from the regionalised distribution patterns. Simulation results from groundwater flow modelling provide a better understanding of the future pollutant migration paths and support the overall site characterisation. The presented case study indicates that an integrated assessment of large-scale groundwater contaminations often needs more data than only from local groundwater monitoring. The developed methodology is appropriate to assess POP-contaminated mega-sites including, e.g. HCH deposits. Although HCH isomers are relevant groundwater pollutants at this site, further organochlorine pollutants are present at considerably higher levels. The study demonstrates that an effective evaluation of the current situation of contamination as well as of the related future fate development requires detailed information of the entire observed system.     

Photoinduced reduction of divalent mercury in ice by organic matter

Reduction of divalent mercury and subsequent emission to the atmosphere has been identified as loss process from surface snow, but its mechanism and importance are still unclear. The amount of mercury that stays in the snow pack until spring is of significance, because during snow melt it may be released to the aquatic environment and enter the food web. Better knowledge of its fate in snow might further assist the interpretation of ice core data as paleo-archive. Experiments were performed under well-controlled laboratory conditions in a coated wall flow tube at atmospheric pressure and irradiated with light between 300 nm and 420 nm. Our results show that the presence of benzophenone and of oxalic acid significantly enhances the release of mercury from the ice film during irradiation, whereas humic acid is less potent to promote the reduction. Further it was found that oxygen or chloride, and acidic conditions lowered the photolytically induced mercury release in the presence of benzophenone, while the release got larger with increasing temperatures.