Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Earthworm cast production as a new behavioural biomarker for toxicity testing

There is currently a lack of ecotoxicity tests adapted to earthworm species of higher ecological relevance and whose endpoints could be directly related to their ecological role in the soil. We propose a new and relatively simple ecotoxicity test based on the estimation of cast production (CP) by Lumbricus terrestris under laboratory conditions. CP was found to be linearly correlated to earthworm biomass and to be greatly influenced by soil water content. Azinphos-methyl had no effect on CP at all the concentrations tested. Significant decreases were observed at the normal application rate for other pesticides with (imidacloprid, carbaryl, methomyl) or without (ethyl-parathion and chlorpyrifos-ethyl) a clear concentration-effect response. For the highest concentration tested, reduction in CP varied between 35 and 67%. CP is straightforward and rapidly measured and ecologically meaningful. We thus believe it to be of great use as an endpoint in ecotoxicity testing.     

Modeling kelp forest distribution and biomass along temperate rocky coastlines

We address the global deficit of data describing kelp forest distribution, relative covers and biomass by testing the ability of species distribution models to predict these attributes at locations where data are currently limited. We integrated biological ground truth data with high-resolution environmental datasets to develop generalized additive models that accurately predict the structure of Laminaria forests within the Bay of Morlaix (48°42′42″N, 3°55′40″W). Forest distribution and proportional covers were predicted using water depth, light availability, wave exposure and sediment dynamics. The biomass of individual kelp species was modeled by supplementing these same variables with measures of seafloor slope and benthic position. Biomass predictions for Laminaria digitata and Laminaria hyperborea contrast the physiological tolerances of these species to light and wave exposure gradients. As a direct management output, we produced high-resolution maps (25 m² grids) that closely match independent field data and provide vital information for marine spatial planning.     

Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada

Estimating prediction uncertainty for a single tree-based model is hindered by the complex structure of these models. In this paper, we addressed this issue with a case study applied to northern hardwood stands in Québec, Canada. SaMARE is a stochastic single tree-based model that was designed for these types of stands. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the model can provide a mean predicted value and its confidence limits for some plot-level attributes.The mean predicted values were compared to observed values in terms of bias and accuracy. In addition to these common statistics, we compared nominal coverage of Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals with real (observed) coverage to verify the adequacy of the simulated uncertainty. A comparison was made using several plot-level attributes, which exhibited an increasing discriminative complexity. This complexity ranges from coarse attributes, such as all-species basal area, up to more complex ones, such as basal area for stems of a particular species and with sawlog potential.The results showed that in terms of absolute value, biases were small, but could be relatively high with respect to the average observed value when the discriminative complexity of the attribute increased. The comparison between nominal and real coverage of confidence intervals gave satisfactory results for all-species plot-level attributes. However, for some species-specific attributes, the Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals overestimated the real coverage.     

Are either sod and catalase or the polyamines involved in the paraquat resistance of Conyza canadensis ?

Abstract

Paraquat/atrazine coresistant (PqAR) and paraquat resistant (PqR) horseweed (Conyza canadensis /L./ Cronq.) plants showed ‐ in the first hour after 0.5 mM paraquat spraying ‐ a decreased catalase activity followed by a slight increase. However, the enzyme activity remained always below the initial value. Sensitive plants showed a significant increase of catalase activity in the first 4 hour after spraying. The transient character of paraquat inhibition, the recovery of photosyn‐thetic activity of the PqAR Conyza plants (characterized by variable fluorescence) after spraying remained unaffected by the Superoxide dismutase (SOD) inhibitor, diethyldithiocarbamate. This indicates that SOD is not involved in the resistance mechanism. Untreated resistant biotypes showed about 2.5 times higher total polyamine and putrescine level than the sensitive one. 100 μM of exogenously added putrescine was observed as having a protecting effect against paraquat in floated leaves of the sensitive biotype only. The resistant leaves were unaffected probably on account of their higher endogenous polyamine level. It is concluded that polyamines may play a role in the paraquat resistance of Conyza canadensis.     

Radon-222 signatures of natural ventilation regimes in an underground quarry

Radon-222 activity concentration has been monitored since 1999 in an underground limestone quarry located in Vincennes, near Paris, France. It is homogeneous in summer, with an average value of 1700 Bq m(-3), and varies from 730 to 1450 Bq m(-3) in winter, indicating natural ventilation with a rate ranging from 0.5 to 2.4 x 10(-6) s(-1) (0.04-0.22 day(-1)). This hypothesis is supported by measurements in the vertical access pit where, in winter, a turbulent air current produces a stable radon profile, smoothly decreasing from 700 Bq m(-3) at 20 m depth to 300 Bq m(-3) at surface. In summer, a thermal stratification is maintained in the pit, but the radon-222 concentration jumps repeatedly between 100 and 2000 Bq m(-3). These jumps are due to atmospheric pressure pumping, which induces ventilation in the quarry at a rate of about 0.1 x 10(-6) s(-1) (0.009 day(-1)). Radon-222 monitoring thus provides a dynamical characterisation of ventilation regimes, which is important for the assessment of the long-term evolution of underground systems.     

Repeated trans-Arctic invasions in littoral bivalves: molecular zoogeography of the<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Macoma balthica</Emphasis> complex

From a geographical survey of allozyme variation, a history of repeated trans-Arctic invasions since the Plio-Pleistocene is suggested for circumboreal bivalves of the Macoma balthica complex. A principal genetic subdivision, involving several nearly diagnostic loci and Nei's distance D=0.6, distinguishes the clams of the NE Pacific from those of the NE Atlantic. The Pacific taxon is however also present in Europe, in disjunct isolates in the Baltic Sea and White Sea basins. Nevertheless, these populations have marked Atlantic introgressive elements in their gene pools (ca. 30%). Two further population types are recognized, one in the St. Lawrence estuary, Quebec, the other in Varangerfjorden, NE Norway; the latter appears a mixture of Pacific and Atlantic components in almost equal proportions, in local genetic equilibrium (a hybrid swarm). Populations in temperate North America fall outside the circumboreal M. balthica complex discussed here (D=1.0), and are referred to M. petalum. In a scenario of the history and evolution of the M. balthica complex and the similarly subdivided Mytilus edulis complex, the divergence between Pacific and Atlantic taxa started after an initial introduction of Pacific ancestors to the Atlantic basin, enabled by the Pliocene opening of the Bering Strait. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, the ocean basins were, for the most part, effectively isolated, but occasional re-invasions have taken place, causing secondary contacts of the diverged bivalve types on the Atlantic coasts. The recently re-invaded Pacific taxa in northern Europe now seem to thrive only in the extreme marginal environments. Exact dating of the re-invasions is not possible from current data. Apart from the divergence through isolation, hybridization and introgression have significantly molded the present affinities within the M. balthica complex. A formal taxonomic treatment of reticulate and hybridizing lineages is problematic; yet to recognize the evolutionary and systematic diversity within the M. balthica complex, a subspecies distinction between the NE Atlantic clams and those from the Pacific, Baltic and White Sea basins is suggested.Communicated by L. Hagerman, Helsingør