A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis’s Woodpecker

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species’ response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species’ response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis’s Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis’s Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.     

Images of Environmental Management: Competing Metaphors in Focus Group Discussions of Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives

In managing environmental problems, several countries have chosen the management by objectives (MBO) approach. This paper investigates how focus group participants from the Swedish environmental administration used metaphors to describe the mode of organization needed to attain environmental objectives. Such analysis can shed light on how an MBO system is perceived by actors and how it works in practice. Although the Swedish government intended to stimulate broad-based cooperation among many actors, participants often saw themselves as located at a certain “level,” i.e., “higher” or “lower,” in the MBO system—that is, their conceptions corresponded to a traditional, hierarchical interpretation of MBO. Prepositions such as “in” and “out” contributed to feelings of inclusion and exclusion on the part of MBO actors. However, horizontal metaphors merged with vertical ones, indicating ongoing competition for the right to interpret how the system of environmental objectives should best be managed. The paper concludes that any organization applying MBO could benefit from discussing alternate ways of talking and thinking about its constituent “levels.”     

A Portable Fiber-Optic Chemical Device for the Quantitative Determination of Carbon Monoxide from Automobile Exhaust Emissions

ABSTRACT

A colorimetxic method for the quantitative determination of CO by diffuse reflectance is described. This method is based on the reduction by CO of Mo (VI) from the indicator reagent molybdosilicic acid (H₈Si[Mo₂O₇]₆). The reduction yielded a change of color from clear yellow to dark green on white disk filter chart paper wetted with reagent indicator solution. The gaseous mixture containing CO was forced to pass through this chart paper, initiating the reaction. The intensity of the color produced, measured by diffuse reflectance, was proportional to the CO concentration present in exhaust gases in the range from 0.02 to 12% volume/volume (v/v). A 650-nm light-emitting diode was used as a light source. A two-fiber-optic system carried the light from the source to the detection system, which was composed of a photodiode, an amplification circuit, and a digital display. The method was applied with success in field measurements for automobiles in the Otto cycle. In a previous paper, this method was used for the quantitative determination of exhaust emissions from diesel-fueled vehicles.¹     

Characterization of spatially homogeneous regions based on temporal patterns of fine particulate matter in the continental United States

Statistical analyses of time-series or spatial data have been widely used to investigate the behavior of ambient air pollutants. Because air pollution data are generally collected in a wide area of interest over a relatively long period, such analyses should take into account both spatial and temporal characteristics. The objective of this study is 2-fold: (1) to identify an efficient way to characterize the spatial variations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations based solely upon their temporal patterns, and (2) to analyze the temporal and seasonal patterns of PM2.5 concentrations in spatially homogenous regions. This study used 24-hr average PM2.5 concentrations measured every third day during a period between 2001 and 2005 at 522 monitoring sites in the continental United States. A k-means clustering algorithm using the correlation distance was used to investigate the similarity in patterns between temporal profiles observed at the monitoring sites. A k-means clustering analysis produced six clusters of sites with distinct temporal patterns that were able to identify and characterize spatially homogeneous regions of the United States. The study also presents a rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) that has been used for characterizing spatial patterns of air pollution and discusses the difference between the clustering algorithm and RPCA.     

Adaptation of the chlorophycean Dictyosphaerium chlorelloides to stressful acidic, mine metal-rich waters as result of pre-selective mutations

Several species of microalgae, closely related to mesophilic lineages, inhabit the extreme environment (pH 2.5, high levels of metals) of the Spain's Aguas Agrias Stream water (AASW). Consequently, AASW constitutes an interesting natural laboratory for analysis of adaptation by microalgae to extremely stressful conditions. To distinguish between the pre-selective or post-selective origin of adaptation processes allowing the existence of microalgae in AASW, a Luria-Delbrück fluctuation analysis was performed with the chlorophycean Dictyosphaerium chlorelloides isolated from non-acidic waters. In the analysis, AASW was used as selective factor. Preselective, resistant D. chlorelloides cells appeared with a frequency of 1.1 x 10(-6) per cell per generation. AASW-resistant mutants, with a diminished Malthusian fitness, are maintained in non-extreme waters as the result of a balance between new AASW-resistant cells arising by mutation and AASW-resistant mutants eliminated by natural selection (equilibrium at c. 12 AASW-resistants per 10(7) wild-type cells). We propose that the microalgae inhabiting this stressful environment could be the descendents of chance mutants that arrived in the past or are even arriving at the present.     

Analysis of C1, C2, and C10 through C33 particle-phase and semi-volatile organic compound emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines

To meet increasingly stringent regulations for diesel engines, technologies such as combustion strategies, aftertreatment components, and fuel composition have continually evolved. The emissions reduction achieved by individual aftertreatment components using the same engine and fuel has been assessed and published previously (Liu et al., 2008a, Liu et al., 2008b, Liu et al., 2008c). The present study instead adopted a systems approach to evaluate the net effect of the corresponding technologies for model-year 2004 and 2007 engines. The 2004 engine was equipped with an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system, while the 2007 engine had an EGR system, a crankcase emissions coalescer, and a diesel particulate filter. The test engines were operated under the transient federal test procedure and samples were collected with a source dilution sampling system designed to stimulate atmospheric cooling and dilution conditions. The samples were analyzed for elemental carbon, organic carbon, and C₁, C₂, and C₁₀ through C₃₃ particle-phase and semi-volatile organic compounds. Of the more than 150 organic species analyzed, the largest portion of the emissions from the 2004 engine consisted of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and naphthalene and its derivatives, which were significantly reduced by the 2007 engine and emissions technology. The systems approach in this study simulates the operation of real-world diesel engines, and may provide insight into the future development of integrated engine technology. The results supply updated information for assessing the impact of diesel engine emissions on the chemical processes, radiative properties, and toxic components of the atmosphere.     

Management issues in a Tasmanian tourist cave: potential microclimatic impacts of cave modifications

Caves can be difficult to navigate and often require physical modification to allow easy access for visitors. Single entrance caves double the access impact of each visitor. Visitors in tourist caves have direct physical effects such as the introduction of concrete and steel structures; transport of mud, dust, and nutrients; installation of lights and the exhalation of water vapour and carbon dioxide into the air. Indirect physical effects include alteration of the microclimate, both through physical modifications that change the ventilation regime and through the presence of visitors leading to changes in temperature, humidity and CO2 within the cave environment. Anthropomorphic changes to cave physical environments to aid access or to reduce backtracking can have adverse effects on the internal microclimate of cave systems with subsequent changes to the cave environment affecting the quality of decorations and cave art and the diversity of cave fauna. Although often stated that caves operate at or near a constant temperature, closer examination indicates that cave temperatures are neither static nor constant. The degree of variation depends largely on the structure and physical characteristics of the cave. Air temperature and humidity gradients between the inside and outside cave environment can result in air density differences, which create airflow, which will in turn affect the cave microclimate. As part of the development of a management framework for King Solomons Cave, Tasmania, a study of the microclimate was carried out on behalf of Tasmanian Parks and Wildlife Service. Analysis of the variables showed significant differences in air temperature within each site and between sites. These differences range from 4 degrees C variation at one site to 0 degrees C at another site. The data were used to model potential airflow between the cave and the external environment. Results indicate that part of the cave is dominated by airflow between the chimney and the cave entrance leading to microclimatic fluctuations, while stable climatic conditions occur at the end of the cave. Future management strategies that propose a passage from the chamber to the surface via the current end zone would create a potential for airflow induced microclimatic change, leading to a change in both the temperature and moisture regimes, necessitating the construction of an airtight double door system.     

Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections

Expert knowledge is used in the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSMs) for management and conservation decisions. However, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on 1 method for elicitation, the analytic hierarchy process, we generated expert-based HSMs for 4 felid species: 2 forest specialists (ocelot [Leopardus pardalis] and margay [Leopardus wiedii]) and 2 habitat generalist species (Pampas cat [Leopardus colocola] and puma [Puma concolor]). Using these HSMs, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and expert attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses and iterative feedback improved model performance. We ran 160 HSMs and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve] >0.7) than those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased as participant years of experience in the study area increased, but only for the understudied generalist species, Pampas cat (β = 0.024 [SE 0.007]). No other participant attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, and aggregating judgments across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgments increased as group size increased but leveled off after 5 experts for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases as habitat specialization increases. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modeling of understudied and generalist species.     

Organochlorine contaminant and retinoid levels in blubber of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) off northwestern Spain

The effect of age, sex, nutritive condition and organochlorine concentration on blubber retinoid concentrations was examined in 74 common dolphins incidentally caught off northwestern Spain. Age and blubber lipid content were strong determinants of the retinoid concentrations in males, while these variables did not account for the variation found in females. Retinoids were positively correlated with organochlorines in males and negatively in females. However, pollution levels were moderate and likely to be below threshold levels above that a toxicological response is to be expected. Thus, a cause-effect relationship between organochlorine and retinoid concentrations could not be properly established, and the observed correlation may be the result of an independent association of the two variables with age. Further research on the influence of the best predictor variables on retinoid dynamics is required to implement the use of retinoids as biomarkers of pollutant exposure in cetaceans.     

Demolition of high-rise public housing increases particulate matter air pollution in communities of high-risk asthmatics

Public housing developments across the United States are being demolished, potentially increasing local concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in communities with high burdens of severe asthma. Little is known about the impact of demolition on local air quality. At three public housing developments in Chicago, IL, PM with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 microm (PM10) and < 2.5 microm were measured before and during high-rise demolition. Additionally, size-selective sampling and real-time monitoring were concurrently performed upwind and downwind of one demolition site. The concentration of particulates attributable to demolition was estimated after accounting for background urban air pollution. Particle microscopy was performed on a small number of samples. Substantial increases of PM10 occurred during demolition, with the magnitude of that increase varying based on sampler distance, wind direction, and averaging time. During structural demolition, local concentrations of PM10 42 m downwind of a demolition site increased 4- to 9-fold above upwind concentrations (6-hr averaging time). After adjusting for background PM10, the presence of dusty conditions was associated with a 74% increase in PM10 100 m downwind of demolition sites (24-hr averaging times). During structural demolition, short-term peaks in real-time PM10 (30-sec averaging time) occasionally exceeded 500 microg/m(3). The median particle size downwind of a demolition site (17.3 microm) was significantly larger than background (3 microm). Specific activities are associated with realtime particulate measures. Microscopy did not identify asbestos or high concentrations of mold spores. In conclusion, individuals living near sites of public housing demolition are at risk for exposure to high particulate concentrations. This increase is characterized by relatively large particles and high short-term peaks in PM concentration.