Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

Considering connections between Hollywood and biodiversity conservation

Cinema offers a substantial opportunity to share messages with a wide audience. However, there is little research or evidence about the potential benefits and risks of cinema for conservation. Given their global reach, cinematic representations could be important in raising awareness of conservation issues and species of concern, as well as encouraging greater audience engagement due to their heightened emotional impact on viewers. Yet there are also risks associated with increased exposure, including heightened visitor pressure to environmentally sensitive areas or changes to consumer demand for endangered species. Conservationists can better understand and engage with the film industry by studying the impact of movies on audience awareness and behavior, identifying measurable impacts on conservation outcomes, and engaging directly with the movie industry, for example, in an advisory capacity. This improved understanding and engagement can harness the industry's potential to enhance the positive impacts of movies featuring species, sites, and issues of conservation concern and to mitigate any negative effects. A robust evidence base for evaluating and planning these engagements, and for informing related policy and management decisions, needs to be built.     

Modelling the Optimal Strategies of Fertiliser Application Using the Game-Theoretic Approach

This paper is a case study which describes the application of game-theoretic approach in resource management with specific emphasis on developing optimal strategies of phosphorus applications for soil fertilisation. The approach adopted allows resource managers to consider not only competitive strategies, which were treated as the Nash equilibrium game solutions, but also strategies which imply cooperation between farmers. These strategies were modelled as the cooperative Pareto optima of the game. The objective function of the game has been developed in order to reflect both economic advantages of phosphorus applications and the environmental losses associated with these applications expressed as dollar values. The paper presents algorithms for finding competitive and cooperative solutions of the game for the particular case when no time scheduling is included in the game parametrisation. The results obtained in the paper showed that the cooperative solutions lead to much lesser environmental impacts than that in the case of non-cooperative strategies.     

Fate of large-scale vortices in idealized tidal lagoons

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The generation and evolution of tidally-induced vortices in coastal and estuarine regions can influence water quality and sedimentary processes. These effects must...     

How many color metrics do we need? Evaluating how different color-scoring procedures explain carotenoid pigment content in avian bare-part and plumage ornaments

For a variety of technical and conceptual reasons, biologists have come to use several different methods to quantify the colors of animals. However, the relative abilities of these different color-scoring procedures to capture variation in the actual color-generating mechanisms—pigment or structural composition of the integument—have never been tested systematically. Here, we examined which commonly employed color metrics predict carotenoid content of ornaments in three avian species (house finch Carpodacus mexicanus, mallard duck Anas platyrhynchos, and zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata). We used spectrophotometry to measure reflectance spectra from beak and feather tissue, calculated numerous color metrics (e.g., hue, chroma, brightness, principal components, and tetrahedral color space position) from these spectra, and determined carotenoid content at the site of color measurement with high-performance liquid chromatography. We found that several principal component, tristimulus, and avian visual model metrics significantly correlated with carotenoid content of house finch feathers and duck beaks. Carotenoid content of mallard beaks was most closely correlated with brightness and saturation metrics, whereas in house finch feathers, carotenoid concentration was best captured by hue and saturation metrics. According to tristimulus scores and visual models, we found that the ultraviolet portion of the spectrum was not an essential predictor of variation in carotenoid content. Also, visual model chromatic contrasts generally were not significant predictors of carotenoid content, although some achromatic contrasts and tetrahedral color space vector parameters were. Our results indicate that numerous methods, especially tristimulus scores, are suitable for capturing pigment-based color variation in two carotenoid-containing ornaments, and we discuss the merits and shortcomings of these different approaches. In contrast, there were no significant relationships between any color metrics and the carotenoid content of zebra finch beaks, suggesting that other color-generating mechanisms besides carotenoids may contribute to color variability in this species.     

Seaweed diversity enhances nitrogen uptake via complementary use of nitrate and ammonium

The consequences of declining biodiversity remain controversial, in part because many studies focus on a single metric of ecosystem functioning and fail to consider diversity's integrated effects on multiple ecosystem functions. We used tide pool microcosms as a model system to show that different conclusions about the potential effects of producer diversity on ecosystem functioning may result when ecosystem functions are measured separately vs. together. Specifically, we found that in diverse seaweed assemblages, uptake of either nitrate or ammonium alone was equal to the average of the component monocultures. However, when nitrate and ammonium were available simultaneously, uptake by diverse assemblages was 22% greater than the monoculture average because different species were complementary in their use of different nitrogen forms. Our results suggest that when individual species have dominant effects on particular ecosystem processes (i.e., the sampling effect), multivariate complementarity can arise if different species dominate different processes. Further, these results suggest that similar mechanisms (complementary nutrient uptake) may underlie diversity-functioning relationships in both algal and vascular-plant-based systems.     

Hydrogen sulfide generation in simulated construction and demolition debris landfills: impact of waste composition

Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) generation in construction and demolition (C&D) debris landfills has been associated with the biodegradation of gypsum drywall. Laboratory research was conducted to observe H2S generation when drywall was codisposed with different C&D debris constituents. Two experiments were conducted using simulated landfill columns. Experiment 1 consisted of various combinations of drywall, wood, and concrete to determine the impact of different waste constituents and combinations on H2S generation. Experiment 2 was designed to examine the effect of concrete on H2S generation and migration. The results indicate that decaying drywall, even alone, leached enough sulfate ions and organic matter for sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) to generate large H2S concentrations as high as 63,000 ppmv. The codisposed wastes show some effect on H2S generation. At the end of experiment 1, the wood/drywall and drywall alone columns possessed H2S concentrations > 40,000 ppmv. Conversely, H2S concentrations were < 1 ppmv in those columns containing concrete. Concrete plays a role in decreasing H2S by increasing pH out of the range for SRB growth and by reacting with H2S. This study also showed that wood lowered H2S concentrations initially by decreasing leachate pH values. Based on the results, two possible control mechanisms to mitigate H2S generation in C&D debris landfills are suggested.