The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

Effect of alum addition on the performance of submerged membranes for wastewater treatment.

The effect of aluminum sulfate (alum) addition on membrane performance was investigated, with a particular focus on membrane fouling. During initial operation, alum was added and the performance monitored. After terminating alum addition, the transmembrane pressure (TMP), which is indicative of membrane resistance to flow or fouling, increased. Accompanying the increase in TMP was an increase in the organic nonsettleable fraction (colloidal + dissolved) content of the mixed liquor and deterioration of permeate quality and floc strength. Permeate polysaccharide concentrations increased significantly, suggesting a preferential binding of solution polysaccharides by alum. Upon reinitiating alum addition, the TMP only partially recovered, indicating some irreversible fouling, while mixed liquor nonsettleable organic material, permeate quality, and floc strength returned to initial levels. These results suggest that direct alum addition to membrane bioreactors can improve membrane performance by reducing the organic fouling material and improving floc structure and strength. It appears that bulk liquid polysaccharides may contribute to irreversible membrane fouling, and this fraction can be efficiently controlled through the alum addition.     

Determination of Endosulfans in Soil/Sediment Samples from Point Mugu, Oxnard, California Using Capillary Gas Chromatography/Mass Selective Detection (GC/MSD)

The extent of contamination by endosulfans in soil samples collected from the Point Mugu watershed near Oxnard, California was determined using capillary gas chromatography/mass selective detection (GC/MSD). The study was designed to detect three organochlorinated pesticides: endosulfan , endosulfan and endosulfan sulfate. Thirteen sets of two soil samples each were taken from various sites in the region. Our results show that the endosulfan levels in these soils range from trace amounts to nearly 30 ppm, with endosulfan being the most abundant and endosulfan sulfate the least. Two sites of the study, Hueneme and Revolon and Farm and Revolon, showed high amounts of endosulfans and , with concentrations between 20 and 30 ppm. The majority of the other sites studied in this research produced concentrations of less than 10 ppm for each of the three endosulfans monitored. At five areas in particular, Pleasant Valley and Creek, Laguna and Creek, Etting and Creek, Road and Creek and Hueneme and Creek, less than 2 ppm or only trace amounts of endosulfans , and sulfate were detected.     

a study of the temporal variability of atrazine in private well water. part i: study design, implementation, and database development

In 1988, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, along withthe University of Iowa conducted the Statewide Rural WellWater Survey, commonly known as SWRL. A total of 686private rural drinking water wells was selected by use of aprobability sample and tested for pesticides and nitrates. Sixty-eight of these wells, the 10% repeat wells, were additionallysampled in October, 1990 and June, 1991. Starting inNovember, 1991, the University of Iowa, with sponsorshipfrom the United States Environmental Protection Agency,revisited these wells to begin a study of the temporalvariability of atrazine and nitrates in wells. Other wells, whichhad originally tested positive for atrazine in SWRL but werenot in the 10% repeat population, were added to the studypopulation. Temporal sampling for a year-long period beganin February of 1992 and concluded in January of 1993. Allwells were sampled monthly, one subset was sampled weekly,and a second subset was sampled for 14-day consecutiveperiods. Two unique aspects of this study were the use of animmunoassay technique to screen for triazines before gaschromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis andquantification of atrazine, and the use of well owners to samplethe wells. A total of 1771 samples from 83 wells are in thefinal data base for this study. This paper reviews the studydesign, the analytical methodologies, and development of thedata base. A companion paper (Pinsky et al., 1997) discussesthe analysis of the data from this survey.     

The creation of an historical meteorological database for environmental dose assessment

The focus of this study is to develop wind data for the SavannahRiver Site (SRS) between 1955 and 1961 to be used in an assessment of estimates of atmospheric dispersion and downwindrisk at the Savannah River Site. In particular, a study of theuncertainties of radioiodine dosimetry from the late 1950sprovides the underlying motivation for developing historicalwindroses at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Wind measurement towers did not exist at the SRS until theearly 1970s. Three relatively simple methods were used to createa 1955–1961 meteorological database for the SRS for a dosereconstruction project. The winds were estimated from onsitemeasurements in the 1990s and National Weather Service (NWS)observations in the 1990s and 1950s using (1) a linear regressionmethod, (2) a similarity theory approach, and (3) a simplestatistical differences method. The criteria for determining success were based on (1) howwell the mean values and standard deviations of the predictedwind speed agree with the known SRS values from the 1990s, (2) the shape of the predicted frequency distribution functions forwind speed, and (3) how closely the predicted windroses resembledthe SRS windrose for the 1990s. The linear regression model's wind speed distribution functionwas broad, flat, and skewed too much toward higher wind speeds.The similarity theory approach produced a wind speed distributionfunction that contained excess predicted speeds in the range 0–1.54 m s^-1 (0–3 kts) and had `excluded' bins caused bypredictions being made from integer values of knots in the NWSdata. The distribution function from the mean difference methodwas smooth with a shape like a Weibull distribution with a shapeparameter of 2 and appearedto resemble closely the SRS 1992–1996 distribution.The wind directions for all three methods of approach weresuccessfully based on the mean difference method. It wasdifficult to discern differences among the wind roses produced bythe three methods so the wind speed distribution functions needto be examined in order to make an informed choice for dose reconstruction.     

Plan integration for resilience scorecard: evaluating networks of plans in six US coastal cities

Planning for hazard mitigation is frequently detached from other planning activities that influence development patterns in hazardous areas. Consistent integration of mitigation reduces hazard vulnerability for people and the built environment. We apply a plan integration for resilience scorecard in six US coastal cities to evaluate the integration of local networks of plans and the degree to which they target areas most vulnerable to flooding hazards. We find that plan integration scores vary widely across the six cities, and that some plans actually increase vulnerability in hazard zones. Policies also frequently support mitigation in areas with low vulnerability, rather than in areas with high vulnerability. The plan integration for resilience scorecard can generate information to improve hazard planning by allowing planners to identify conflicts between plans, assess whether plans target areas that are most vulnerable, and better inform decision makers about opportunities to mainstream mitigation into multiple sectors of planning.     

Evaluation of a Slag and Portland Cement Mix to Simulate Treatment of Acidic Waste via Solidification/Stabilization in a Deep Soil Mix Application

Site investigations at an oil and gas facility identified a highly acidic waste referred to as residual acid tar that resulted in the transport of dissolved nickel toward the point of compliance at concentrations that exceeded site environmental screening levels. Solidification/stabilization (S/S) via deep soil mixing was selected as the remedial approach and a mixture of ground granulated blast furnace slag cement and Portland cement was subjected to treatability testing to evaluate the reagent mix's ability to achieve treatment objectives. Results from the treatability test showed a cement mix dose of 21 percent was sufficient to raise the pH above the target of 6.0 and reduce dissolved nickel concentrations to below site screening levels in leachate from treated samples of residual acid tar and material impacted by residual acid tar. Cement mix doses of 21 percent or greater were sufficient to achieve target strengths in the unimpacted shallow overburden. However, none of the doses tested were able to achieve target strengths in the residual acid tar or peaty material impacted by the residual acid tar. Results showed soil strengths increased significantly when the pH in leachate from the treated samples approached 12, suggesting the presence of organic acids related to the peaty soils may interfere with the cement set. Recommendations from the study include additional treatability testing to evaluate pre‐treatment with hydrated lime to satisfy acid neutralization requirements prior to dosing with the cement mix. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Exploring Nontraditional Participation as an Approach to Make Water Quality Trading Markets More Effective

Water quality trading (WQT) has the potential to be a low‐cost means for achieving water quality goals. WQT allows regulated wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) facing discharge limits the flexibility to either reduce their own discharge or purchase pollution control from other WWTPs or nonpoint sources (NPSs) such as agricultural producers. Under this limited scope, programs with NPSs have been largely unsuccessful at meeting water quality goals. The decision to participate in trading depends on many factors including the pollution control costs, uncertainty in pollution control, and discharge limits. Current research that focuses on making WQT work tends to identify how to increase participation by traditional traders such as WWTPs and agricultural producers. As an alternative, but complementary approach, we consider whether augmenting WQT markets with nontraditional participants would help increase the number of trades. Determining the economic incentives for these potential participants requires the development of novel benefit functions requiring not only economic considerations but also accounting for ecological and engineering processes. Existing literature on nontraditional participants in environmental markets tends to center on air quality and only increasing citizen participation as buyers. Here, we consider the issues for broadening participation (both buyers and sellers) in WQT and outline a multidisciplinary approach to begin evaluating feasibility.     

Development of community of practice to support quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology products: contaminant bioremediation and invasive carp control as cases

Synthetic biology has the potential for a broad array of applications. However, realization of this potential is challenged by the paucity of relevant data for conventional risk assessment protocols, a limitation due to to the relative nascence of the field, as well as the poorly characterized and prioritized hazard, exposure, and dose–response considerations associated with the development and use of synthetic biology-derived organisms. Where quantitative risk assessment approaches are necessarily to fulfill regulatory requirements for review of products containing genetically modified organisms, this paper reviews one potential avenue for early-stage quantitative risk assessment for biosafety considerations of synthetic biology organism deployment into the environment. Building from discussion from a March 2018 US Army Engineer Research and Development Center workshop on developing such quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology, this paper reviews the findings and discussion of workshop participants. This paper concludes that, while synthetic biology risk assessment and governance will continue to refine and develop in the coming years, a quantitative framework that builds from existing practice is one potentially beneficial option for risk assessors that must contend with the technology’s limited hazard characterization or exposure assessment considerations in the near term.     

Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world

We examine issues to consider when reframing conservation science and practice in the context of global change. New framings of the links between ecosystems and society are emerging that are changing peoples’ values and expectations of nature, resulting in plural perspectives on conservation. Reframing conservation for global change can thus be regarded as a stage in the evolving relationship between people and nature rather than some recent trend. New models of how conservation links with transformative adaptation include how decision contexts for conservation can be reframed and integrated with an adaptation pathways approach to create new options for global‐change‐ready conservation. New relationships for conservation science and governance include coproduction of knowledge that supports social learning. New processes for implementing adaptation for conservation outcomes include deliberate practices used to develop new strategies, shift world views, work with conflict, address power and intergenerational equity in decisions, and build consciousness and creativity that empower agents to act. We argue that reframing conservation for global change requires scientists and practitioners to implement approaches unconstrained by discipline and sectoral boundaries, geopolitical polarities, or technical problematization. We consider a stronger focus on inclusive creation of knowledge and the interaction of this knowledge with societal values and rules is likely to result in conservation science and practice that meets the challenges of a postnormal world.