Artificial Neural Network-Derived Trends in Daily Maximum Surface Ozone Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Interannual variability in meteorological conditions can confound attempts to identify changes in ozone concentrations driven by reduced precursor emissions. In this paper, a technique is described that attempts to maximize the removal of meteorological variability from a daily maximum ozone time series, thereby revealing longer term changes in ozone concentrations with increased confidence. The technique employs artificial neural network [multilayer perceptron (MLP)] models, and is shown to remove more of the meteorological variability from U.S. ozone data than does a Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter and conventional regression-based technique.     

Water-Quality Performance of a Constructed Stormwater Wetland for All Flow Conditions1

Wadzuk, Bridget M., Matthew Rea, Gregg Woodruff, Kelly Flynn, and Robert G. Traver, 2010. Water-Quality Performance of a Constructed Stormwater Wetland for All Flow Conditions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):385-394. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00408.x Abstract: Results from a multiyear study demonstrate that a constructed stormwater wetland (CSW) improves urban stormwater runoff quality mitigating downstream impacts. Best management practices, such as CSWs, can comprehensively treat the various scales of stormwater runoff issues. Discrete sample analysis was used to investigate the CSW effect for storm events and base-flow periods on water-quality parameters [i.e., total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, total nitrogen, phosphorous (total and reactive), chloride, heavy metals (zinc, lead, and copper), and Escherichia coli]. The primary finding was that stormwater sediment load was removed through the CSW for all flow conditions during all seasons. The mechanisms responsible for the removal of suspended solids, including slower flow velocity, longer retention times, and vegetative contact, also reduced the mass of nutrients discharged downstream throughout the year. Exceedance probabilities were used to evaluate the expected pollutant reductions of nutrients and to incorporate the effect of natural flow variation on quality. Other findings included the observation that there was no significant difference in the performance of the CSW over two-year-long periods four years apart, indicating that a CSW is effective for an extended period.     

Carotenoid-rich mouth colors influence the conspicuousness of nestling birds

When allocating investment among offspring, parents might maximize their fitness by biasing investment toward offspring with the best direct fitness prospects. The observed preferences of avian parents for carotenoid-rich mouth colors that advertise good condition has been interpreted as support for this hypothesis. However, because these condition-dependent visual signals might also make offspring more visually conspicuous, active parental preferences for carotenoid-rich traits are difficult to distinguish from passive responses to differences in detectability among offspring. Here, we used a visual model to examine how mouth colors influence the visual conspicuousness of nestling house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to parents under a suite of realistic ambient light conditions. We found little evidence that mouths rich in carotenoids provided more conspicuous targets to parents than mouths poor in carotenoids. While other features of mouth color may have evolved to increase conspicuousness, our results suggest that carotenoid-based coloration is not a product of detectability pressures and rather may serve as a signal of nestling quality.     

Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R ² = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.     

Options for water storage and rainwater harvesting to improve health and resilience against climate change in Africa

West and East Africa experience high variability of rainfall that is expected to increase with climate change. This results in fluctuations in water availability for food production and other socioeconomic activities. Water harvesting and storage can mitigate the adverse effects of rainfall variability. But past studies have shown that when investments in water storage are not guided by environmental health considerations, the increased availability of open water surface may increase the transmission of water-related diseases. This is demonstrated for schistosomiasis associated with small reservoirs in Burkina Faso, and for malaria in Ethiopia around large dams, small dams, and water harvesting ponds. The concern is that the rush to develop water harvesting and storage for climate change adaptation may increase the risk for already vulnerable people, in some cases more than canceling out the benefits of greater water availability. Taking health issues into account in a participatory approach to planning, design, and management of rainwater harvesting and water storage, as well as considering the full range of water storage options would enable better opportunities for enhancing resilience against climate change in vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Characterization of saccharides and other organic compounds in fine particles and the use of saccharides to track primary biologically derived carbon sources

A total of 134 aerosol samples (d_p < 2.5 μm) were collected at one rural site and one urban site in Texas from November 2005 to July 2006 to investigate the different sources that contribute to the ambient levels of different compounds. In particular, saccharide compounds were studied as potential tracers to track aerosols of biologically derived origin. The ambient concentration, seasonal variation, and urban/rural comparison of major saccharides and other organic compounds including normal alkanes, hopanes, and carboxylic acids were determined and analyzed relative to characterizing sources of PM2.5. Saccharides, together with other known molecular markers, were analyzed by a positive matrix factorization model and eight source factors were isolated that provide meaningful interpretation of aerosol sources. Three isolated factors were characterized by the dominance of different saccharide compounds and were attributed to wood smoke, sucrose rich bio-aerosols, and fungal spore derived bio-aerosols. It was estimated that wood smoke and primary biologically derived carbon sources contributed 22% and 14% to the measured ambient PM2.5 mass at San Augustine and 16% and 5% to the measured ambient PM2.5 mass at Dallas. The relative PM contribution from other resolved sources were also calculated.     

Experience affects mating behavior, but does not impact parental reproductive allocation in a lizard

Investment into reproduction is influenced by multiple factors and varies substantially between males and females. Theory predicts that males should adjust their ejaculate size or quality in response to variation in female experience or phenotypic quality. In addition, sperm investment by males may also be influenced by their own status and experience. Although such adjustments of male ejaculate size can impact reproductive success (via fertilization success), fitness returns from male sperm investment may be influenced (either limited or facilitated) by the level of maternal investment. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an experiment that simultaneously evaluated the effect of paternal and maternal experience (which incorporates mating status, age, body size, and other related variables) on paternal sperm investment and maternal reproductive allocation in the lizard Anolis sagrei. During staged mating trials, experienced males were more likely to copulate with females, but these individuals were less likely to transfer sperm during mating than were naïve individuals. Maternal experience had no impact on these mating behaviors. In contrast to expectations, experience and phenotypic quality (of both sexes) had no impact on male ejaculate size or quality (proportion of live sperm) or on maternal reproductive investment (in terms of egg size and yolk steroids). These findings were intriguing given the mating system and past evidence for differential maternal investment in relation to sire quality in A. sagrei. The results found in this study highlight the complexity of reproductive investment patterns, and we urge caution when applying general conclusions across populations or taxa.     

Aerosols and associated precipitation patterns in Atlanta

The role of aerosol concentrations on summer precipitation was examined in Atlanta, Georgia for the period 2003–2004. Each day of the week was examined to ascertain their aerosol concentrations. Thursday had the highest median 2.5 μm particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations at two of three Environmental Protection Agency stations. Monday and Thursday had the largest area of significantly different precipitation when compared to other days of the week. All but the southeast quadrant of the metropolitan area had a significant difference in precipitation on high versus low aerosol days. High aerosol days had greater instability (higher average convective available potential energy and lower convective inhibition), and a slightly more shallow mixing layer when compared to low aerosol days. Most of metropolitan Atlanta had higher precipitation amounts on high aerosol days and was significantly different from low aerosol days.     

Synoptic evaluation of regional PM2.5 concentrations

By comparing short-term fluctuations in PM2.5 species concentrations among nearby air quality monitors and among species, it becomes possible to understand the regional and local events leading to higher concentrations. This approach was applied at thirteen sites in the Maryland area for the 2001–2006 timeframe in order to identify and explain the behavior of eighteen different analytes as well as the daily Air Quality Index.Findings included identification of local upwind events such as fireworks displays, construction and demolition, the spatial extent of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium correlations between ground-level monitors, correlations between some crustal species to indicate similar emissions sources in urban areas, and indicators of particle adsorption as a rate-limiting step for certain species. For example, the bromine behavior suggests that bromine concentrations on particulate matter may be limited by the particle adsorption rate and thus show a dependence on the Air Quality Index measurements.