Insects mediate the effects of propagule supply and resource availability on a plant invasion

Invasive species are a global threat to biodiversity and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Here, we report on a two-year experiment aimed at elucidating the combined and relative effects of three key controls on plant invasions: propagule supply, soil nitrogen (N) availability, and herbivory by native insects. We focus on the exotic species Lespedeza cuneata, a Rank 1 invasive species. Propagule supply and soil N-availability interacted to control the density and foliar cover of L. cuneata. In low N plots, density and foliar cover of L. cuneata were higher in the propagule addition plots than in the plots to which propagules were not added. Surprisingly, this interaction was significant only when the abundance of herbivores was experimentally reduced. This experiment provides evidence that native insect herbivores mediate the interactive effects of propagule supply and resources on invasion by a widespread invasive plant species.     

First-passage-time transfer functions for groundwater tracer tests conducted in radially convergent flow

Forced-gradient groundwater tracer tests may be conducted using a variety of hydraulic schemes, so it is useful to have simple semi-analytic models available that can examine various injection/withdrawal scenarios. Models for radially convergent tracer tests are formulated here as transfer functions, which allow complex tracer test designs to be simulated by a series of simple mathematical expressions. These mathematical expressions are given in Laplace space, so that transfer functions may be placed in series by simple multiplication. Predicted breakthrough is found by numerically inverting the composite transfer function to the time-domain, using traditional computer programs or commercial mathematical software. Transport is assumed to be dictated by a radially convergent or uniform flow field, and is based upon an exact first-passage-time solution of the backward Fokker–Planck equation. These methods are demonstrated by simulating a weak-dipole tracer test conducted in a fractured granite formation, where mixing in the injection borehole is non-ideal.     

Comparing model averaging with other model selection strategies for benchmark dose estimation

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accommodating model uncertainty when estimating risk. Although the use of MA is inherently appealing, little is known about its performance using general modeling conditions. We investigate the use of MA for estimating excess risk using a Monte Carlo simulation. Dichotomous response data are simulated under various assumed underlying dose–response curves, and nine dose–response models (from the USEPA Benchmark dose model suite) are fit to obtain both model specific and MA risk estimates. The benchmark dose estimates (BMDs) from the MA method, as well as estimates from other commonly selected models, e.g., best fitting model or the model resulting in the smallest BMD, are compared to the true benchmark dose value to better understand both bias and coverage behavior in the estimation procedure. The MA method has a small bias when estimating the BMD that is similar to the bias of BMD estimates derived from the assumed model. Further, when a broader range of models are included in the family of models considered in the MA process, the lower bound estimate provided coverage close to the nominal level, which is superior to the other strategies considered. This approach provides an alternative method for risk managers to estimate risk while incorporating model uncertainty.

An abelisaurid from the Late Cretaceous of Egypt: implications for theropod biogeography

Recent paleogeographic scenarios postulate the isolation of continental Africa during the Late Cretaceous. The absence of abelisaurid theropods from Upper Cretaceous African strata was offered as support of hypothesized African isolation with the acknowledgement that the paucity of African abelisaurids may be mostly an issue of sampling. Here we report on a shed theropod tooth from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian, ∼70 Ma) Duwi Formation of Egypt. The tooth was referred to the Malagasy abelisaurid “Megalosaurus” crenatissimus (=Majungasaurus crenatissimus) in 1921. A discriminant function analysis was run to test for morphological congruence between the Egyptian tooth and the dentitions of 24 theropod taxa. The analysis correctly classified 96.6% of the teeth in the sample and assigned the tooth to Majungasaurus. As current paleogeographic reconstructions posit Madagascar had attained its current position relative to Africa before the Late Cretaceous, it is unlikely that the Egyptian tooth actually pertains to Majungasaurus. Nevertheless, its classification as an abelisaurid supports its referral to the clade. This tooth thus constitutes defensible evidence of an abelisaurid from the post-Cenomanian Cretaceous of mainland Africa. Combined with recent discoveries of abelisaurids in Niger and Morocco, the result indicates that Abelisauridae was a diverse group in Africa during the Cretaceous, existing in multiple places for at least ∼25 Ma and weakens support for hypotheses of an isolated Africa during the Late Cretaceous.Electronic Supplementary Material  Supplementary material is available for this article at

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Organohalogen chemicals in human blood from the United Kingdom

Blood serum from 154 volunteers at 13 UK locations in 2003 were analysed for a range of PCBs, organochlorine pesticides and PBDEs. HCB, p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT and beta-HCH were the dominant organochlorine pesticides in most samples. BDEs 47, 99, 100, 153, 154 and 183 were the most regularly detected PBDEs. This study is the first report of BDE209 in UK human blood (found in 11 samples, range < 15-240 ng/g lipid). Concentration and age correlated for the less easily metabolised PCBs, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE, HCB and HCHs. With increasing age females tended to have lower concentrations of the more chlorinated PCBs than males. Similar PBDE concentrations, and distributions, to those reported in the general population in Sweden in 2002 were found, despite differences in historical PBDE production and usage. There is increasing regulation to control persistent and bioaccumulative chemicals, and establishing human exposure will help to identify substances which should be urgently phased out.     

Trophic ecology of large predatory reef fishes: energy pathways, trophic level, and implications for fisheries in a changing climate

Large predatory fishes are disproportionately targeted by reef fisheries, but little is known about their trophic ecology, which inhibits understanding of community dynamics and the potential effects of climate change. In this study, stable isotope analyses were used to infer trophic ecology of a guild of large predatory fishes that are targeted by fisheries on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Each of four focal predators (Plectropomus leopardus, Plectropomus maculatus, Lethrinus miniatus and Lutjanus carponotatus) was found to have a distinct isotopic signature in terms of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N. A two-source mixing model (benthic reef-based versus pelagic) indicated that P. leopardus and L. miniatus derive the majority (72 and 62 %, respectively) of their production from planktonic sources, while P. maculatus and L. carponotatus derive the majority (89 and 74 %, respectively) of their production from benthic reef-based sources. This indicates that planktonic production is important for sustaining key species in reef fisheries and highlights the need for a whole-ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Unexpectedly, there was little isotopic niche overlap between three of four focal predators, suggesting that inter-specific competition for prey may be low or absent. δ¹⁵Nitrogen indicated that the closely related P. leopardus and P. maculatus are apex predators (trophic level > 4), while δ¹³C indicated that each species has a different diet and degree of trophic specialisation. In view of these divergent trophic ecologies, each of the four focal predators (and the associated fisheries) are anticipated to be differentially affected by climate-induced disturbances. Thus, the results presented herein provide a useful starting point for precautionary management of exploited predator populations in a changing climate.     

Crime,weather, and climate change

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.     

使用安捷伦7000A三重串联四极杆GC/MS/MS系统测定大气颗粒物中的硝基多环芳烃

采用毛细管GC结合安捷伦7000A三重串联四极杆GC/MS(G7010AA)系统的多反应监测(MRM)模式分析了大气颗粒物中的硝基多环芳烃(nitro-PAHs).传统硝基多环芳烃的分析方法是在样品前处理之后,使用单四极杆GC/MS的选择离子监测SIM模式或者多维GC/MS,但基于MS/MS检测模式超强的选择性,可直接分析大气颗粒物的粗提物.实际样品中的硝基多环芳烃可以检测到pg·μL-1的级别,相对应于大气样品中pg·m-3级的含量.     

Ontogenetic differences in chemical alarm cue production determine antipredator responses and learned predator recognition

How individuals assess, respond and subsequently learn from alarm cues is crucial to their survival and future fitness. Yet this information is not constant through time; many individuals are exposed to different predators throughout their life as they outgrow some predators or move to habitats containing different predators. To maximise overall fitness, individuals should discriminate between different cues and respond and learn from only those that are relevant to their current ontogenetic stage. We tested whether juvenile spiny chromis, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, could distinguish between chemical alarm cues from conspecific donors of different ontogenetic stages and whether the cue ontogenetic stage of the cue donor affected the efficacy of learning about predators. Juveniles displayed a significant antipredator response when conditioned with juvenile chemical alarm cues paired with predator odour but failed to respond when conditioned with predator odour paired with either adult alarm cues or with saltwater. Subsequently, individuals only recognised the predator odour alone as a threat when conditioned with juvenile alarm cues. This demonstrates that prey may be highly specific in how they use information from conspecific alarm cues, selectively responding to and learning from only those cues that are relevant to their developmental stage.     

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade

Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small-bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit-and-wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide-ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) by causing elk (Cervus elaphus) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen Stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator-prey life history and ecological context.