Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods part II: Application of the image analysis system CROCO

We tested whether the semi-automatic program CROCO can replace visual assessments of slides to detect changes in defoliation assessment methods. We randomly selected a series of slides of 24 Norway spruce trees with 220 field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides had been randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without knowledge of the tree number or the year when the slide was taken. Defoliation scores were computed with CROCO. Each tree had thus three different defoliation scores, field assessments, photo assessments and CROCO scores.CROCO scores were less correlated with the field assessments (Spearmans rank correlation: 0.67) than were the slide assessments with the field assessments (0.79–0.83). However, CROCO was not biased against the field scores, while slide assessments systematically underestimated defoliation.In a multi-variate mixed effect model none of the variables tree overlap, tree visibility and light conditions was significant in explaining differences between slide assessors and CROCO scores. The same model applied for the differences from the field scores yielded significant effects for poor light conditions (CROCO and all assessors), for crown overlap (CROCO and one assessor) and for visibility (one assessor). We conclude, therefore, that CROCO can be used to detect past and future changes in assessment methods without bias if poor quality photographs are avoided.     

Detecting Differences in Crown Transparency Assessments Between Countries using the Image Analysis System Croco

Estimates of crown transparency calculated using the semi-automatic image analysis system CROCO were compared withthe visual estimates of survey teams from 12 European countries.For each of five European species (Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), Scotspine (Pinus sylvestris L.), beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), oak (Quercus robur L.)) 15 trees were assessed. In 64\% of the comparisons, CROCO estimates and the survey teams' scores differed significantly, while differences between countries were significant in 58 % of all comparisons. We calculated Spearman's rank correlation and the standard deviation of the differences between CROCO and each country and between pairs of countries. We then computed the medians for CROCO and each country. CROCO and only a few countries hadfor all species a higher median correlation and lower median standard deviation than the median for the comparison between countries. In addition no country had a consistently higher correlation or lower standard deviation than CROCO. We concludethat CROCO can provide more consistent and less variable estimates of crown transparency than visual assessments and that it can serve as a reference to detect differences in visualtransparency assessments between countries over time.     

Microbial Fe(III) Reduction in Acidic Mining Lake Sediments after Addition of an Organic Substrate and Lime

To elucidate the role of Fe(III) reduction in mining lake sediments amended with organic substrates, we performed a large (10 m diameter) enclosure experiment in which sediments were amended with Carbokalk, a waste product from sugar industry containing organic carbon and lime. Fe(III) reduction rates were determined monthly by measuring the accumulation of Fe(II) in the sediments in the field. Fe(III) reduction rates were also determined by incubating sediment samples with synthetic Fe(III) oxyhydroxide under in situ temperature in the laboratory. Sulfate reduction was selectively inhibited in the Fe(III) reduction experiments by addition of sodium molybdate. Sulfate reduction was measured by accumulation of reduced inorganic sulfides in the field and by ³⁵S radiotracer using a core injection technique. Sediment incubation and determination of sulfate reduction rates with radiotracer showed that sulfate reduction and direct microbial Fe(III) reduction occured simultaneously in the upper centimeters of the sediments and that both processes contributed to alkalinity generation. However, Fe(III) reduction was the initial process and rates were at least 3.5 fold higher than sulfate reduction rates. The results indicate that the presence of suitable anions for Fe(II) precipitation as carbonate or sulfide is needed in order to prevent loss of potential alkalinity by Fe(II) diffusion and reoxidation in the water column.     

Seasonal nitrogen fluxes of the Lena River Delta

The Arctic is nutrient limited, particularly by nitrogen, and is impacted by anthropogenic global warming which occurs approximately twice as fast compared to the global average. Arctic warming intensifies thawing of permafrost-affected soils releasing their large organic nitrogen reservoir. This organic nitrogen reaches hydrological systems, is remineralized to reactive inorganic nitrogen, and is transported to the Arctic Ocean via large rivers. We estimate the load of nitrogen supplied from terrestrial sources into the Arctic Ocean by sampling in the Lena River and its Delta. We took water samples along one of the major deltaic channels in winter and summer in 2019 and sampling station in the central delta over a one-year cycle. Additionally, we investigate the potential release of reactive nitrogen, including nitrous oxide from soils in the Delta. We found that the Lena transported nitrogen as dissolved organic nitrogen to the coastal Arctic Ocean and that eroded soils are sources of reactive inorganic nitrogen such as ammonium and nitrate. The Lena and the Deltaic region apparently are considerable sources of nitrogen to nearshore coastal zone. The potential higher availability of inorganic nitrogen might be a source to enhance nitrous oxide emissions from terrestrial and aquatic sources to the atmosphere.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01665-0.     

The influence on the radioxenon background during the temporary suspension of operations of three major medical isotope production facilities in the Northern Hemisphere and during the start-up of another facility in the Southern Hemisphere

Medical isotope production facilities (MIPF) have recently been identified to emit the major part of the environmental radioxenon measured at many globally distributed monitoring sites deployed to strengthen the radionuclide component of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification regime. Efforts to raise a global radioxenon emission inventory revealed that the yearly global total emission from MIPF’s is around 15 times higher than the total radioxenon emission from nuclear power plants (NPP's).Given that situation, from mid 2008 until early 2009 two out of the ordinary hemisphere-specific events occured:1) In the Northern hemisphere, a joint temporary suspension of operations of the three largest MIPF's made it possible to quantify the effects of the emissions related to NPP’s. The average activity concentrations of ¹³³Xe measured at a monitoring station close to Freiburg, Germany, went down significantly from 4.5 ± 0.5 mBq/m³ to 1.1 ± 0.1 mBq/m³ and in Stockholm, Sweden, from 2.0 ± 0.4 mBq/m³ to 1.05 ± 0.15 mBq/m³.2) In the Southern hemisphere the only radioxenon-emitting MIPF in Australia started up test production in late November 2008. During eight test runs, up to 6.2 ± 0.2 mBq/m³ of ¹³³Xe was measured at the station in Melbourne, 700 km south-west from the facility, where no radioxenon had been observed before, originating from the isotopic production process.This paper clearly confirms the hypothesis that medical isotope production facility are at present the major emitters of radioxenon to the atmosphere. Suspension of operations of these facilities indicates the scale of their normal contribution to the European radioxenon background, which decreased two to four fold. This also gives a unique opportunity to detect and investigate the influence of other local and long distance sources on the radioxenon background. Finally the opposing effect was studied: the contribution of the start-up of a renewed radiopharmaceutical facility to the build up of a radioxenon background across Australia and the Southern hemisphere.     

Assessment of in situ biodegradation of monochlorobenzene in contaminated groundwater treated in a constructed wetland

The degradation of monochlorobenzene (MCB) was assessed in a constructed wetland treating MCB contaminated groundwater using a detailed geochemical characterisation, stable isotope composition analysis and in situ microcosm experiments. A correlation between ferrous iron mobilisation, decreasing MCB concentration and enrichment in carbon isotope composition was visible at increasing distance from the inflow point, indicating biodegradation of MCB in the wetland. Additionally, in situ microcosm systems loaded with 13C-labelled MCB were deployed for the first time in sediments to investigate the biotransformation of MCB. Incorporation of 13C-labelled carbon derived from the MCB into bacterial fatty acids substantiated in situ degradation of MCB. The detection of 13C-labelled benzene indicated reductive dehalogenation of MCB. This integrated approach indicated the natural attenuation of the MCB in a wetland system. Further investigations are required to document and optimise the in situ biodegradation of MCB in constructed and natural wetland systems treating contaminated groundwater.     

Detecting and correcting sensor drifts in long-term weather data

Quality control of long-term monitoring data of thousands and millions of individual records as present in meteorological data is cumbersome. In such data series, sensor drifts, stalled values, and scale shifts may occur and potentially result in flawed conclusions if not noticed and handled properly. However, there is no established standard procedure to perform quality control of high-frequency meteorological data. In this paper, we outline a procedure to remove sensor drift in high-frequency data series using the example of 15-year-long sets of hourly relative humidity (RH) data from 28 stations subdivided into 202 individual sensor operation periods. The procedure involves basic quality control, relative homogeneity testing, and drift removal. Significant sensor drifts were observed in 40.6 % of all sensor operation periods. The drifts varied between data series and depended in a complex, usually inconsistent way on absolute RH values; within single series for instance, a drift could be negative in the lower RH range and positive in the upper RH range. Detrending changed RH values by, on average, 1.96 %. For one fifth of the detrended data, adjustments were 2.75 % and more of the measured value, and in one tenth 4.75 % and more. Overall, drifts were strongest for RH values close to 100 %. The detrending procedure proved to effectively remove sensor drifts. The principles of the procedure also apply to other meteorological parameters and more generally to any time series of data for which comparable reference data are available.     

Structuring sustainability science

It is urgent in science and society to address climate change and other sustainability challenges such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, depletion of marine fish stocks, global ill-health, land degradation, land use change and water scarcity. Sustainability science (SS) is an attempt to bridge the natural and social sciences for seeking creative solutions to these complex challenges. In this article, we propose a research agenda that advances the methodological and theoretical understanding of what SS can be, how it can be pursued and what it can contribute. The key focus is on knowledge structuring. For that purpose, we designed a generic research platform organised as a three-dimensional matrix comprising three components: core themes (scientific understanding, sustainability goals, sustainability pathways); cross-cutting critical and problem-solving approaches; and any combination of the sustainability challenges above. As an example, we insert four sustainability challenges into the matrix (biodiversity loss, climate change, land use changes, water scarcity). Based on the matrix with the four challenges, we discuss three issues for advancing theory and methodology in SS: how new synergies across natural and social sciences can be created; how integrated theories for understanding and responding to complex sustainability issues can be developed; and how theories and concepts in economics, gender studies, geography, political science and sociology can be applied in SS. The generic research platform serves to structure and create new knowledge in SS and is a tool for exploring any set of sustainability challenges. The combined critical and problem-solving approach is essential.     

Vertical emission profiles for Europe based on plume rise calculations

The vertical allocation of emissions has a major impact on results of Chemistry Transport Models. However, in Europe it is still common to use fixed vertical profiles based on rough estimates to determine the emission height of point sources. This publication introduces a set of new vertical profiles for the use in chemistry transport modeling that were created from hourly gridded emissions calculated by the SMOKE for Europe emission model. SMOKE uses plume rise calculations to determine effective emission heights. Out of more than 40 000 different vertical emission profiles 73 have been chosen by means of hierarchical cluster analysis. These profiles show large differences to those currently used in many emission models. Emissions from combustion processes are released in much lower altitudes while those from production processes are allocated to higher altitudes. The profiles have a high temporal and spatial variability which is not represented by currently used profiles.