Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

Composition analysis of dental solid waste in Brazil

When developing proper waste management strategies, it is essential to characterize the volume and composition of solid waste. The aim of this work was to evaluate the composition of dental waste produced by three dental health services in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Two universities, one public and one private, and one public dental health service were selected. Waste collection took place from March to November 2007. During this period, three samples were collected from each dental health service. The total amount of dental waste produced in one day of dental work was manually separated into three categories: infectious and potentially infectious waste, accounting for 24.3% of the total waste; non-infectious waste, accounting for 48.1%; and domestic-type waste, accounting for 27.6% (percentages are for mean weights of solid waste). Our results showed that most of the waste considered as biomedical may be misclassified, consequently making the infectious waste amount appear much larger. In addition, our results suggest that the best waste minimization method is recycling, and they help to define an appropriate waste management system in all three of the dental health services involved in this study.     

Kill before being killed: an experimental approach supports the predator-removal hypothesis as a determinant of intraguild predation in top predators

Intraguild predation (IGP) has been explained in terms of competitor-removal, food-stress and predator-removal hypotheses. Only the first two hypotheses have been fairly well studied. To test the predator-removal hypothesis as a force determining IGP in avian predators, we performed a field experiment to simulate the presence of an IG predator (eagle owl Bubo bubo dummy) in the surrounding of the nests of four potential IG prey (black kite Milvus migrans, red kite Milvus milvus, booted eagle Aquila pennata and common buzzard Buteo buteo). To discard the possibility that an aggressive reaction towards the eagle owl was not related to the presence of the IG predator, we also presented a stuffed tawny owl Strix aluco, which is a potential competitor but cannot be considered an IG predator of the studied diurnal raptors considered in the experiment. While almost always ignoring the tawny owl, raptors chiefly showed an interspecific aggressive behaviour towards their IG predator. Our results seem to support the predator-removal hypothesis, as the IG prey may take advantage of the diurnal inactivity of the IG predator to remove it from their territory. However, the recorded behaviour may be also considered as a special variety of mobbing (i.e. a prey’s counter-strategy against its predator), where the mobber is sufficiently powerful to escalate predator harassment into deliberate killing attempts. In their turn, eagle owls can respond with an IG predatory behaviour aimed at removing IG prey species which are highly aggressive mobbers.     

Airshed Model Evaluation of Reactivity Adjustment Factors Calculated with the Maximum Incremental Reactivity Scale for Transitional-Low Emission Vehicles

Abstract

The California Air Resources Board recently adopted regulations for light- and medium-duty vehicles that require reductions in the ozone-forming potential or “reactivity,” rather than the mass, of nonmethane organic gas (NMOG) emissions. The regulations allow sale of all alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) that meet NMOG exhaust emission standards equivalent in reactivity to those set for vehicles fueled with conventional gasoline. Reactivity adjustment factors (RAFs), the ratio of the reactivity (per gram) of the AFV exhaust to that of the conventionally fueled vehicle (CFV), are used to correct the stringent exhaust emission standards. Complete chemical speciation of the exhaust and conversion of each NMOG species to an appropriate mass of ozone using the maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) scale of Carter determines the RAF. The MIR approach defines reactivity where NMOG control is the most effective strategy in reducing ozone concentrations, and assumes it is not important to define reactivity at other conditions, i.e., where NO_x is the limiting precursor.

This study used the Carnegie/California Institute of Technology airshed model to evaluate whether the RAF-adjusted AFV emissions result in ozone impacts equivalent to those of CFV emissions. A matrix of two ozone episodes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California, two base emission inventories, and exhaust emissions from three alternative fuels that meet the first level of the low emission vehicle standards bounds the expected range of conditions. Although very good agreement was found previously for individual NMOG species,² this study noted deviations of up to ±15 percent from the equal ozone impacts for any vehicle/fuel combination required by the California regulations. These deviations appear to be attributable to differences in spatial and temporal patterns of emissions between vehicle fleets, rather than a problem with the MIR approach. The first formally adopted RAF, a value of 0.41 for 85 percent methanol/15 percent gasoline-fueled vehicles, includes a 10 percent increase based on the airshed modeling. The correction to the RAF is different for other fuels and may be different for air basins other than the SoCAB.     

Assessment of the availability of agricultural crop residues in the European Union: Potential and limitations for bioenergy use

This paper provides a resource-based assessment of the available agricultural crop residues for bioenergy production in the European Union, at the level of the 27 Member States. The assessment provides the amount of the residues produced, collected, their present uses and the residues left available for bioenergy. This study considers the crop production and yields and multi-annual yield variation for each crop. The calculation was based on specific residues to product ratios, which were determined, depending on the crop type and crop yield. Sustainable removal rates were considered in order to protect soil fertility. The results show large spatial and temporal variations of available crop residues within EU27. The average amount of crop residues available for bioenergy in EU27 was estimated at 1530 PJ/year, with a variation between 1090 and 1900 PJ/year. The average value represents about 3.2% in final energy consumption in the EU27 while the variation 2.3–4%. This variation, which is even larger at the level of Member States, may result in shortages in biomass supply in some years, when crop residues are available in a lower amount than the average.