On estimating the exponent of power-law frequency distributions

Power-law frequency distributions characterize a wide array of natural phenomena. In ecology, biology, and many physical and social sciences, the exponents of these power laws are estimated to draw inference about the processes underlying the phenomenon, to test theoretical models, and to scale up from local observations to global patterns. Therefore, it is essential that these exponents be estimated accurately. Unfortunately, the binning-based methods traditionally used in ecology and other disciplines perform quite poorly. Here we discuss more sophisticated methods for fitting these exponents based on cumulative distribution functions and maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate their superior performance at estimating known exponents and provide details on how and when ecologists should use them. Our results confirm that maximum likelihood estimation outperforms other methods in both accuracy and precision. Because of the use of biased statistical methods for estimating the exponent, the conclusions of several recently published papers should be revisited.     

Flooding and the Role of Planning in England and Wales: A Critical Review

In this paper the authors raise some important questions about the extent to which planning is fostering an environment susceptible to flooding. They argue that severe UK flooding incidents in recent years should result in the government re-examining the planning system to ensure relevancy and effectiveness in dealing with such problems in the future. They identify where the current policy and practice weaknesses lie in planning to limit both flood source and flood impact areas and suggest ways in which the government and the profession could take remedial steps to increase local and regional sustainability.     

Social Planning for Mall Redevelopment: an Australian case-study

This paper provides a case study of recent work undertaken in Melbourne relating to a mall re-development project. It begins by discussing the nature of shopping centres as sites of consumption and non-commercial social activities. It then describes planning and development strategies that provide innovative and socially progressive interventions in regard to the social, physical and regulatory environments of public malls. The importance of seeing such sites as 'community spaces', of promoting activities on the basis of social inclusion, of creating a safe, convivial atmosphere, and of establishing low-key friendly sorts of mall management, are highlighted.     

WATER QUALITY PREDICTION WITHIN AN INTERBASIN TRANSFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT A methodology for predicting the spatial and temporal levels of conservative water quality constituents within a multibasin water resource system is presented. Dissolved solids, sulfates, and chlorides are the constituents used during this investigation; however, any other conservative ion or mineral can be incorporated into the simulation model. The methodology is tested on the proposed Texas Water System. The water quality model, QNET-I, utilizes monthly canal and river flows and reservoir storage levels calculated by the Texas Water Development Board's systems simulation model. Discharge-concentration relationships are developed for each source of water in the system, including significant waste-water discharges. Reservoirs in the system are assumed to be completely mixed with respect to conservative constituents. A mass balance analysis is performed for each node and each month during the simulation period. The output from the water quality simulation is a table of the concentrations of the conservative water quality constituents at each demand point in the system and in each reservoir and canal for every month the system is in operation. The desired quality of the water at the demand locations is used to determine the economic utility of transporting and mixing water from various sources.     

Female brown-headed cowbirds' (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Molothrus ater</Emphasis>) social assortment changes in response to male song: a potential source of public information

In many species, females' behavior appears to be influenced by that of other females, particularly regarding mate choice. Females theoretically can reduce the costs associated with independent male assessment by observing conspecifics. Studies of brown-headed cowbirds suggest that females pay attention to other females' behavior. Group-housed females modify their song preferences, whereas females housed in pairs do not. What information is available to females in a group environment? To address this question, we studied two groups of juvenile (i.e. hatch-year birds) and adult female cowbirds in a naturalistic group setting. We used a longitudinal ABA design, consecutively introducing and removing males that differed in age, amount of song production and stage of song development, to isolate the male characteristics that related to changes in female behavior. Juvenile and adult females assorted by age class when singing adult males were in the aviary, but not when singing juveniles or silent males of any age class were in the aviary. Results from playback tests confirmed that adult male song alone influenced female age class assortment. Videotape analysis from playback tests revealed that females also wing stroked in response to male song. Other females sometimes approached females who wing stroked and observed them. We hypothesize that group-level changes in social organization and individual females' responses can serve as visual signals for other individuals.     

Metolachlor and chlorothalonil dissipation in gypsum-amended soil

This work focused on the interactive effects of the fungicide chlorothalonil (2,3,4,6-tetrachloro-1,3-benzendicarbonitrile) and gypsum on the persistence of the soil-residual herbicide metolachlor (2-chloro-N-(6-ethyl-o-tolyl)-N-[(1RS)-2-methoxy-1-methylethyl]acetamide). Gypsum application was included due to its widespread use on peanut (Arachis hypogaea). Both agricultural grade gypsum and reagent CaSO₄-2H₂O were tested. A laboratory soil incubation was conducted to evaluate interactive effects. Results indicated 1.5X greater metolachlor half-life (DT₅₀) in soil amended with chlorothalonil (37 d) as compared to control soil (25 d). The two gypsum sources alone increased metolachlor DT₅₀ to about 32 d and with the combination of chlorothalonil and gypsum, DT50 was 50 d, 2-fold greater than the control. Chlorothalonil dissipation was rapid (DT₅₀ < 4d). A possible explanation for metolachlor dissipation kinetics is a build-up of the chlorothalonil intermediate (4-hydroxychlorothalonil) which limited soil microbial activity and depleted glutathione S-transferase (GST) from chlorothalonil detoxification. Further information related to gypsum impacts is needed. Results confirm previous reports of chlorothalonil impeding metolachlor dissipation and showed the gypsum application extended persistence even longer. Farming practices, such as reducing metolachlor application rates, may need to be adjusted for peanut cropping systems where chlorothalonil and gypsum are used.     

Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.     

Effects of suspended sediments on egg production of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa

The estuarine copepod Acartia tonsa was collected on several occasions between 4 April and 14 August 1985 from Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana (29°08N; 90°36W) and the effects in its diet of suspended sediments, collected from the same area, were measured at five different concentrations of sediment (100 to 1 000 ppm) and six phytoplankton concentrations (500 to 13 000 cells ml^-1 Thalassiosira weissflogii). Egg production rate was used as an index of diet quality. At low phytoplankton concentrations (500 cells ml^-1), and at intermediate phytoplankton concentrations (2 000 cells ml^-1) for previously starved copepods, egg production was reduced by up to 40% at a sediment concentration of 250 ppm and further reduced at higher sediment concentrations. At higher food concentrations (4 000 to 13 000 cells ml^-1), suspended sediment had no effect on egg production rates at sediment concentrations up to 500 ppm. Rates were reduced only at the highest sediment concentration of 1 000 ppm. Under most natural conditions, suspended sediment would not significantly affect egg production rates in A. tonsa.